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EU politics: the trouble with "Europe"
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Originally Posted by: comet 
I think the Tories actually believe this renegotiation rubbish. It's a cozy thing to believe, although apart from anything else, how anyone quite imagines the negotiation could succeed with withdrawal expressly excluded is a mystery.
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Once the box is opened and we get more information out into the public domain whether or not the present government has expressly excluded withdrawal is irrelevant. Cameron and Clegg will no longer lead their parties and even Miliband (the present one) may have departed.The Euro will still be in trouble and more controversial laws passed.And then we have more immigration... The EU was sold to the British people as a trade agreement, this pretense has already broken down and the political class will be forced to admit we are discussing the UK's membership of a European Federation.
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 1 user thanked James102 for this useful post.
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From our dear friends at the Beeb: Quote:The deputy prime minister, who admitted he had not seen Mr Cameron's speech, said he expected the prime minister to link any renegotiation of Britain's relationship with Europe and a future referendum to a new treaty.
"Everyone is saying that when the treaty becomes a reality, that is when we have a question to answer," he said. Looks like Cameron's speech is going to be very vague about a referendum. Reality has passed him by and there isn't anything he can really say now is there? He can either go for Article 50, yeah and pigs might fly, or procrastinate further and link a referendum with a treaty change sometime never. What i find so hard to understand is why there is no one in the public policitcal arena willing to just talk about Articel 50 - surely it must have dawned on someone that pushing for Article 50 and enthusiastically promoting an independent UK will win a pile of votes and popular support. The uplift in moral of the country and the economic opportunities of being out the EU must be huge. As time goes by the split between the above the liners and us ordinary plebs is becoming ever more apparent, it's a shame there is so little we can actually do about it.
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There is quite a lot of reference to Cameron being between a rock and a hard place, the eu must also tread very carefully as it's in the same position. If it slams down Camerons proposals out of hand it will further enrage the outers and have them gain increased support. That said the measured response is probably already formulated.
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I had to laugh at the headline ' Cameron's EU Referendum may never happen '
No shit Sherlock !
And certainly not if Dave has anything to do with it.
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Originally Posted by: Diehard_TH
Looks like Cameron's speech is going to be very vague about a referendum. Reality has passed him by and there isn't anything he can really say now is there? He can either go for Article 50, yeah and pigs might fly, or procrastinate further and link a referendum with a treaty change sometime never.
What i find so hard to understand is why there is no one in the public policitcal arena willing to just talk about Articel 50 - surely it must have dawned on someone that pushing for Article 50 and enthusiastically promoting an independent UK will win a pile of votes and popular support.
The uplift in moral of the country and the economic opportunities of being out the EU must be huge.
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Conservative Home has an interesting article on how Cameron congratulated the woman on winning her case in the ECHR where she appealed against a ruling that she could not wear a crucifix at work.The interesting bit is she was opposed by government lawyers working nominally for ...Cameron. His speech will be the proverbial horse designed by a committee, but the debate has started and we are hearing more about the EU being a political union and less about free trade. Article 50 is the elephant in the room and will start to be discussed soon: it is early days.
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Originally Posted by: richard Originally Posted by: Frank Davis Quote:What it also reveals, though, is that Cameron, in common with many senior politicians and political journalists, is massively ill-informed about the nature of the European Union. He is thus hopelessly ill-informed on what is and is not possible to achieve in terms of negotiations. I would think that he is almost certainly perfectly well-informed. He has simply chosen to try to do something that can't be done, in full knowledge that it will fail, so that he can at least pretend to have tried to do something. And most likely all the other senior politicians are just as well-informed as he is, but go along with the charade, because they want it to fail too. It's the Canute strategy. The impression of those closer to him is that he genuinely believes that he can pull off a renegotiation. Never underestimate the degree of ignorance in the Conservative Party. Oh I can believe that. I can also believe the Comservatives will put Party before country. How many Tory MP's will survive the next General Election? A lot more if they make some cynical promises about a holding referendum at some point in the future, when the time is right.. blah blah blah.
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One of Cameron's problems is that Conservatives are not necessarily turning to UKIP because of the EU, they are doing it because of him and his record. This came out in Ashcroft's report. Therefore there's only a limited mileage in talking about a referendum.
A possibility is that the speech is about stopping further Conservative support bleeding away rather than winning back supporters from UKIP.
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Wow!
Filed.
Thank you, Richard.
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Quote:And if Mr Cameron does make a credible referendum offer, then UKIP supporters are going to have to think very hard about their voting intentions for the general election. I don't think so. No one believes Cameron's offers any more, credible or otherwise. Certainly people who now support UKIP because of Cameron's failed promise of a referendum will be highly unlikely to change their minds when offered another promise....
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