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richard
#1 Posted : 26 January 2013 13:17:32(UTC)
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If we take Mr Cameron's Wednesday speech as "Day One" of a four-year referendum campaign, then we are now on day four. And already the legacy media are running out of steam, finding it hard to offer anything of very great interest or originality.

That is not to say that the idea of having an EU referendum some time in the future is devoid of interest – very far from it. But the media, which has always struggled to write intelligently on the European Union, lacks the depth to be able to analyse the issues and come up with anything helpful to its readers.

The Daily Mail, for instance, offers a laborious piece from Dominic Sandbrook, drawing parallels between these current events and the 1975 referendum.

View full article here
comet
#2 Posted : 26 January 2013 13:41:54(UTC)
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It all assumes that Cameron himself has any realistic expectation of being in office to act in any of this.

He looks very much like the driver of a run away train. He looks at pressure gauges, pulls levers and whistles nonchalently, trying to give the impression that he's in control, but he isn't.

As for his speech, what else could he have said? Bear in mind that much of this is about not seeing the Conservative Party break up, and getting to the next GE intact and not greatly diminished, has to be a significant goal.

From this piece, in 1975 there was more flexibility in The European Project to claim a token victory and a good deal more naivete about the nature of the project on which to play.
richard
#3 Posted : 26 January 2013 13:52:06(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: comet Go to Quoted Post


From this piece, in 1975 there was more flexibility in The European Project to claim a token victory and a good deal more naivete about the nature of the project on which to play.




That's a fair inference. But it also points out that the EP (European Parliament) is a major player, which people tend to forget.
comet
#4 Posted : 26 January 2013 14:33:03(UTC)
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At the time this was largely decided by summits of representatives of the constituent nations which were not formally structured and were not obliged to listen to the Commission or the EP.

It's now more formal because the institution of the EU has become more proceduralised and more rigid. There are more bodies to convince, all with formalities to observe and with their own agendas. There are many more member states with naturally more widely diverging interests.

It's not the same as going to summits of limited numbers of like minded souls, and convincing them that a bit of adjustment is needed here and there, but nothing too radical, so that David can have something to sell to the suckers back home. Even if there was a general will for David to be given a fig leaf, it would naturally be harder to grant, because the process is more cumbersome and more closely defined. In any case they have other things to worry about such as sorting out the Euro.

What this amounts to is that it would be much harder for Cameron to negotiate with Brussels and come away with anything remotely credible. In any case, assuming a Tory majority next GE, his line about renegotiating and putting the results to a referendum could be blown far off course and the timing certainly wouldn't be under his control at all.
graham wood
#5 Posted : 26 January 2013 15:04:00(UTC)
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Quote:
It all assumes that Cameron himself has any realistic expectation of being in office to act in any of this.


Yes, Comet I agree.. In order to stay in office - and at least on the EU front in the light of his new policy, he is going to be hard put to please "all of the people all of the time" - especially his own back-benchers. He now has to deliver something!

There is a delicious irony in all this - in that he now is forced by his own policy to get a "good deal" from the EU (which we all know is not remotely possible) and between now and the next GE, work hard to that end. However, since he wants to stay IN, it makes it very difficult for him to spend time and energy contesting for UK concessions in any realistic way.

Its called 'making your own bed, and then lying on it!

Yet, if he wishes to avoid the Tory Party fracturing even more, then he has to give the impression he will try really hard.
At the end of the day, he will have maybe, some superficial token concessionss, worth zilch.
How will he then campaign before the election?
Labour, even sections of the the MSM, and the Blogs will hound him unmercifully. Tough titty.
Niall Warry
#6 Posted : 26 January 2013 16:09:32(UTC)
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Dave announced this referendum to give clarity to his position but the only thing that is certain is that nothing is certain!

Even assuming Dave wins the next election I can see he will hold back from a referendum on the basis that he has nothing to offer the British people so he will argue we need to await 'EU developments' before we hold our referendum.

I just could NEVER see Dave fighting a referendum to leave the EU.

Edited by user 27 January 2013 09:56:15(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

FITTLEWOOD
#7 Posted : 26 January 2013 16:39:21(UTC)
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Since 1993, like Mr. Farage and many others, I have riled against the anti-democratic EU. It has cost me bags of gold and sore feet (plus the loss of a fingertip to a dog that objected to my leaflet through its letterbox).
There have been superb intellects like Christopher Booker and Dr. Richard, plus practical opponents of the EU like Trevor Colman MEP, who have dissected the arguments of the pro-EU brigade and brought the subject to the public.
And still the EU marches on - because the "elite" currently meeting in Davos want it to succeed. They have had the Prime Ministers of UK in the palm of their hand since the USA & the USSR supported the British defence against German, Japanese & Italian aggression and loaned us their money.

What has all our efforts against the EU achieved - saving the currency temporarily because the money men thought it was in their interests. Politically we have barely dented the battleship EUROPA with UKIP and lesser groups because the political system takes a dynasty to fall.

We are like the condemned man fighting our fate at every legal stage but they have already tied our hands and put us on the scaffold with the noose around our necks. The executioner and his assistants are those that we trusted to govern us. Like the Jews voting for Hitler in the 1930's. But where is our saviour ?

On the subject of dynasties this Muslim doctrine may give some comfort -

Dynasties have a natural life span like individuals.

The same is the case with the life (span) of dynasties. Their durations may differ according to the conjunctions. However, as a rule no dynasty lasts beyond the life (span) of three generations. A generation is identical with the average duration of the life of a single individual, namely, forty years.

Only another 120 minus 40 (1973 to 2013) years to go before the EU falls !

Niall Warry
#8 Posted : 26 January 2013 16:47:24(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: FITTLEWOOD Go to Quoted Post
Since 1993, like Mr. Farage and many others, I have riled against the anti-democratic EU. It has cost me bags of gold and sore feet (plus the loss of a fingertip to a dog that objected to my leaflet through its letterbox).
There have been superb intellects like Christopher Booker and Dr. Richard, plus practical opponents of the EU like Trevor Colman MEP, who have dissected the arguments of the pro-EU brigade and brought the subject to the public.
And still the EU marches on - because the "elite" currently meeting in Davos want it to succeed. They have had the Prime Ministers of UK in the palm of their hand since the USA & the USSR supported the British defence against German, Japanese & Italian aggression and loaned us their money.

What has all our efforts against the EU achieved - saving the currency temporarily because the money men thought it was in their interests. Politically we have barely dented the battleship EUROPA with UKIP and lesser groups because the political system takes a dynasty to fall.

We are like the condemned man fighting our fate at every legal stage but they have already tied our hands and put us on the scaffold with the noose around our necks. The executioner and his assistants are those that we trusted to govern us. Like the Jews voting for Hitler in the 1930's. But where is our saviour ?

On the subject of dynasties this Muslim doctrine may give some comfort -

Dynasties have a natural life span like individuals.

The same is the case with the life (span) of dynasties. Their durations may differ according to the conjunctions. However, as a rule no dynasty lasts beyond the life (span) of three generations. A generation is identical with the average duration of the life of a single individual, namely, forty years.

Only another 120 minus 40 (1973 to 2013) years to go before the EU falls !



Sir John Glubb in his paper 'The fate of Empires' concluded that all Empires will fall after around 250 years. So I agree the EU will implode of its own accord in due course.

However our 'Saviour' will be ourselves if we become sovereign as Demanded in the 1st Demand of The Harrogate Agenda.

flyinthesky
#9 Posted : 26 January 2013 18:12:37(UTC)
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My two pennorth, for what it's worth, I offer not a solution but an observation.
The whole thing, and that includes the eu, the UK government, the UN, the IPCC and probably any regulatory entity you can think of.
It's the town, city or indeed national traffic planner analogy, if they got it right they would render themselves unemployed, because they remain in situ they have to justify by doing and there's no doubt about it they do get to the zenith stage at which point they should move on, but they don't do they, they continue to navigate down the slope to justify thier continued existance, how many words are there in the eu cabbage legislation, 26,911 words, I'm sure they started out with the required 4, edible and not poisonous. Leave them in situ as we have they have managed to increase the word count by some 29,907 words and FFS this is only caggage, can you imagine the potential of something important.
Disregarding my opening gambit let's start with cabbage, return to the four word solution and recognise that the greater point of regulation is not that we we need it but that we have contraced out the responsibility to people who say because we can and to ensure our continuance we will. A simple start " the cabbage"

Edited by user 26 January 2013 18:29:08(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

euSSR Go Home
#10 Posted : 26 January 2013 23:05:58(UTC)
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Another attempt at trying to post a response today, Dr. N -- I'm having a bit of bother with the systems.

Thank you, though, for the Wilson info -- he was the first politician I realised I couldn't abide. Now, in the Jellied Heel, we suffer someone who evokes a similar reaction from many. How it is that nobody tries to get rid of him, I don't know.

I am, indeed, among those who believe that he anticipates never offering us an option to get out from under. I think he probably intends destruction of the once Conservative Party, so he would gladly accept not being Prime Minister again. Beyond that, he probably thinks that 2017 will be far too late to do anything.

Incidentally, thank goodness we have you to translate the Jeremian newspapers for us! Why, one suspects that their own readers are suffering interpretations even worse than those the Grauniad foists upon us. One trusts that those in the cabbage fields don't believe everything they say.
pipesmoker
#11 Posted : 27 January 2013 11:43:37(UTC)
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Harold Wilson kept the tax on pipe tobacco down, at today's prices that saves me £10 a week!
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