Originally Posted by: JulianTheSceptic 
"If Cameron comes up with a credible referendum promise, people who are committed to decoupling from EU political integration will most probably see the Conservatives as their best hope. Support for UKIP at the general election will wither on the vine. "
- Little chance of the former. Most commenting readers of the Mail and Express who don't reveal UKIP sympathies regard Cameron as untrustworthy on Europe.
People I know who are essentially non-political regard Cameron as false and untrustworthy period. It doesn't take very much political nous to see promises made for 2018/9 at the earliest as jam tomorrow, particularly if Cameron looks set not to win the 2015 general election.
Cameron was taken on as a token eurosceptic. He promised to leave the EP grouping they were in, and botched it. He quietly ditched the fisheries Green Paper. He excluded members of BOO from front bench positions. He showed every sign of walking the Tory EU tightrope.
He made a serious mistake by calling a party the rank and file were not hostile to and probably voted for in the Euro elections, "fruitcakes and loonies". It would have been wiser to ignore them or damn them with faint praise.
He and Hague badly misjudged the LT business and overplayed the Cast Iron Promise. That was Cameron's most serious mistake. It has given him the Cast Iron tag and robs his current strategy of any possibility of acceptance.
They went on to the Referendum Lock, which strained credulity and the elastic limits of bullshit.
Now Cameron is a liability, they can't get rid of him and he's costing them.
But really, this is not so much to do with Cameron as the Conservative Party having to state its position with regard to the EU when their position has always been calculated dishonesty.
Originally Posted by: JulianTheSceptic 
There is a general Conservative charm offensive starting at the moment; the party is used to a two year run-in for a general election. One of last year's hot potatoes, road pricing, has definitely been put out of sight, but work goes on to introduce it for lorries UK wide. Procurement documents for the Dartford Crossing tolls specify 'scalability', which means the ability to be adapted to larger tolling projects. Great news for the European Commission that wants road pricing for all vehicles on all roads after 2015 to aid the stricken Galileo project.
The EU (or at least its stooge Sir Roger Carr of the CBI) seems to want us to think that the euro problems have calmed down, but there are several dark horses that could make the EU unpopular and push up the UKIP vote. I am thinking of an influx of Rumanians and Bulgarians, HS2, power cuts, the imposition of wind turbines and smart meters towards renewables obligations. And that's just the immediate ones with some EU connection.
This is too soon for a serious offensive and most of this has been in support of, or hoping to influence, Cameron's speech. That speech is another botch in the making.
I agree that some of the deciding factors in this will be external to the UK and probably completely blind side.