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EU politics: in for the long-haul
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richard
#1 Posted : 20 January 2013 17:58:34(UTC)
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It seems as if we are going to see "that speech" some time this coming week, with Wednesday currently the favourite. It would appear that we are most definitely going to get a referendum, although my original prediction of 2018 stands – should the Conservatives get elected to government.

The biggest joke of the day though comes from Conservative MP Tracey Crouch, who says: "People need clarity about what it is that the government is saying because there are so many mixed messages", then adding: "One of the advantages of having a referendum is that we can have an informed debate on our future relationship".

The joke is that the last thing we are going to see is an "informed debate", as this piece (headline above) illustrates.

View full article here
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Clarence
#2 Posted : 20 January 2013 18:18:18(UTC)
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100 Years Ago today (apologies to Lord Gnome)

Quote:
"Renegotiation of the Community in the sense of reforming its practice and redefining Britain's place in it, is a continuous process, which can only be conducted from within, and in which we are already playing a full part. Renegotiation in the sense of British withdrawal… would be a disaster for which future generations would never forgive us.

Community membership has been of major importance for our foreign and defence policy as a whole, providing us with a new dimension and a new voice in world affairs. We reaffirm our full support for the Atlantic Alliance within which we shall continue to seek still closer European co-operation in defence and procurement."
Conservative Party manifesto, February 1974

Quote:
The Dangers of Withdrawal
An overwhelming majority of British exporters and businessmen favour our membership of the Common Market. The Community provides an enormous home market for our industries and membership of the biggest trading bloc in the world. Just as we need military allies, so we need political and economic allies. British withdrawal would mean the abandonment of export opportunities, the decline of industrial development in this country and the loss of jobs. Withdrawal would give us less power and influence in the world not more. Withdrawal would confront us with the choice of almost total dependence on others or retreat into weak isolation. We reject such a bleak and impotent future for Britain.

Negotiation
Within the Community, there is a continuous process of negotiation in order to take account of the interests of Britain and to deal with the problems of the community as a whole. This process will go on: it ensures that no member state carries an unfair burden. We will present the results of negotiation to Parliament at every stage in accordance with Britain's constitutional practice.

Conservatives have been playing their full part in the European Parliament to protect British interests, improve Community policy and make Europe more democratic. A central part of future Conservative policy will be to work realistically for closer European unity in all the areas of Community policy which can be of benefit to Britain. In this way we can make our contribution to a peaceful, prosperous and democratic Europe.

Europe gives us the opportunity to reverse our political and economic decline. It may be our last.
Conservative Party manifesto, October 1974 [Labour's manifesto promised a referendum on the sham renegotiation that was then going on in Bruxelles]

Quote:
"[more of the effing same]"
Conservative Party manifesto, May 2015

Edited by user 20 January 2013 18:22:57(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified
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 1 user thanked Clarence for this useful post.
Ravenscar on 21/01/2013(UTC)
In2minds
#3 Posted : 20 January 2013 18:21:43(UTC)
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Ford have so much confidence in the EU they move their van plant to Turkey!
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graham wood
#4 Posted : 20 January 2013 18:26:10(UTC)
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Quote:
"When it becomes obvious that Mr Cameron's renegotiation has failed."


This may have been a typo, but I think you meant when it becomes obvious that Cameron's bid for a referendum has failed? BigGrin
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thespecialone
#5 Posted : 20 January 2013 18:46:47(UTC)
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Dr. North says "Mr Cameron will do his best to convince people that the renegotiation is real, but even his powers of persuasion will founder on the indifference of the "colleagues".

You are right about his "powers of persuasion". He persuaded me pretty quickly that he was truly the "heir to Blair" and could not be trusted and is a liar.
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David Phipps
#6 Posted : 20 January 2013 18:55:19(UTC)
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"Another certainty is that the independent players will be ruthlessly excluded. The last thing the establishment wants is well-researched, accurate material raining on its parade, so that will be ignored.

However, with five years to go before a referendum, if at all, it can't be said often enough that the long campaign has its own peculiarities. The short-lived FUD (fear-uncertainty-doubt) tactics of the europhiles will soon run out of steam, and one can tolerate only so many self-interested corporates before tedium sets in."

However the danger is that the electorate through their tedium, switch off, while remembering the fear factor put out by Europhiles. All the more reason then to get the HA up and running and set into the minds of the electorate to the extent that, while an independent player, its following is so great that it cannot be ignored.

Just a thought......
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Ravenscar
#7 Posted : 20 January 2013 20:11:25(UTC)
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I don't set much store in NOP's, a you-gov poll in the Sunday Times results put - those who want to remain in the EU at 40% and wishing to leave at 34%. Plus [seemingly], @ UKIP down to 7% haemorrhaging support, Tory 30% and Labour on 42% - divine me some runes baby - what does it all mean?

On other pages, the civil service are ignoring their departmental ministers by refusing to impose new regulations and initiatives [what's new?].

Then, Sharia gangs on the streets of Tower Hamlets and other areas of Waltham Heath [all over London?] and advising female passers-by to wear more modest attire and drinkers to pour away their evil brews because "you are in a Muslim Sharia area" - police not fazed in the slightest - reading between the lines - "not our job" or that's their area now?

Plus, A good article by Dominic Lawson telling us, Britain losing 3 million [if we left the EU] jobs threat; is about as real as Scotch Mist, or seeing Nessie.
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In2minds
#8 Posted : 20 January 2013 22:56:21(UTC)
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I'm not sure I share the view of David Phipps post #6 -

Quote:
However the danger is that the electorate through their tedium, switch off, while remembering the fear factor put out by Europhiles


I agree this has to be said. But I would have thought that it's more likely that the tedium, and yes it's very powerful stuff at the moment, is not so selective. Also my instincts tell me that few of the electorate are turned on by politics. I do wonder how many people are watching this 'debate'?

Then if as I imagine the effect of this laudanum is general rather then specific it will send both sides of the argument to sleep.

For example today in the Telegraph -

1 - Ford and BMW warn against UK exit from EU as David Cameron readies historic speech
2 - EU doubts put pound's 'safe haven' status at risk, traders warn

3 - Lord Woolfson - I back the single market – but not at any cost

Three stories on the same theme, that is the sky will fall in and we all die unless business gets its own way. I just wonder how many people will read all three? And there could be more, I just gave up looking after those!

I think if those of us who want the other view put are prepared to do a quality rather than quantity approach we can meet the opposition head on.

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John Archer
#9 Posted : 21 January 2013 00:03:32(UTC)
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richard wrote:
So far, they are playing the same predictable games as last time.

They can do no other as the truth of the matter is their Nemesis. But in time the truth will become apparent to all but the dimmest.

What will they do then? I don't think they'll sit idle, that's for sure.

So be ready for plenty of electoral fraud, that's what.

And any other underhand way they can dream up. Efforts should be made to block these too, but first we need to be aware of them. Offhand I can't think of any apart from blackmail and other criminal coercion. Unlikely? Yes, but only from a practical point of view, not in principle you'll understand. Still...?

Future attractive public-sector pay deals linked to our membership of the EU? Declaration of a state of emergency? Sure, this is loony toons territory. The thing is we're already there now: unrestricted and hideously alien mass immigration, death-spiral quantitative easing, the The Race Relation Act, 'hate' crimes, the BBC as a public broadcaster paid for by extortion....

I'm sure they won't place any limits on their imaginations. Neither should we. Just in case.
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John Archer
#10 Posted : 21 January 2013 00:06:45(UTC)
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Nice one, Clarence.
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JO
#11 Posted : 21 January 2013 00:36:58(UTC)
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Two questions:

1. Is it possible that Cameron will get any support from Denmark & Sweden for the sort of 'reform' package he's looking for? And could they form an alliance for a repatriation of powers?

2. Who among MP's, and the business and economic community, would support withdrawal. In other words, who else with any clout is on our side?

Jo
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David Coe
#12 Posted : 21 January 2013 08:58:46(UTC)
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We have one other advantage and that is the EU itself. Despite a lull in the economic turmoil of the eurozone the problems have not gone away and will not be resolved anytime soon. All the predicted solutions to the problems will not make the EU more attractive and will increase antagonism towards the project not only in this country but in most others too. This will present many opportunities to offer a real alternative to membership. No, it will not be easy, but nothing worth fighting for ever was.
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