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richard
#1 Posted : 14 January 2013 15:56:10(UTC)
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Mr Cameron tells us on the Today programme that next week's speech is all but written and there is little more to do. What he was telling Jon Humphries, therefore, is probably close to the final text and reveals much of what is to be said.

What it also reveals, though, is that Cameron, in common with many senior politicians and political journalists, is massively ill-informed about the nature of the European Union. He is thus hopelessly ill-informed on what is and is not possible to achieve in terms of negotiations. It is, therefore, useful to analyse some what we have been told, to see where exactly he has gone wrong. I will concentrate on three points ...

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meltemian on 15/01/2013(UTC)
John Archer
#2 Posted : 14 January 2013 16:37:43(UTC)
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Richard,

Thank you for that succinct summary. Executive!

Right, that's getting pasted as a permanent note in my iDumbPhone ready for quick-draw europhile bashing.

And can we have more of these handy summaries like that as things hot up please? Especially on Article 50.

And maybe a handy list of all those international bodies that make the global running.

Edited by user 14 January 2013 16:39:24(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Clarence
#3 Posted : 14 January 2013 16:55:34(UTC)
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He is a tease – he's now moved the speech forward to this Friday.
richard
#4 Posted : 14 January 2013 17:02:51(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Clarence Go to Quoted Post
He is a tease – he's now moved the speech forward to this Friday.


Bugger!

richard
#5 Posted : 14 January 2013 17:03:20(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: John Archer Go to Quoted Post
Richard,

Thank you for that succinct summary. Executive!

Right, that's getting pasted as a permanent note in my iDumbPhone ready for quick-draw europhile bashing.

And can we have more of these handy summaries like that as things hot up please? Especially on Article 50.

And maybe a handy list of all those international bodies that make the global running.




Global bodies coming up ...



comet
#6 Posted : 14 January 2013 17:11:11(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: richard Go to Quoted Post

What it also reveals, though, is that Cameron, in common with many senior politicians and political journalists, is massively ill-informed about the nature of the European Union. He is thus hopelessly ill-informed on what is and is not possible to achieve in terms of negotiations. It is, therefore, useful to analyse some what we have been told, to see where exactly he has gone wrong. I will concentrate on three points ...


I think the Tories actually believe this renegotiation rubbish. It's a cozy thing to believe, although apart from anything else, how anyone quite imagines the negotiation could succeed with withdrawal expressly excluded is a mystery.

The key has to be demolishing the half-way position as it then becomes a choice between in and joining the Euro, Schengen and all the rest, and out, which would hardly need arguing for given the alternative.

Clarence
#7 Posted : 14 January 2013 18:20:58(UTC)
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When point 2 (particularly e) is discussed regarding the WTO, the europhiles' argument about "strength in numbers" is especially dishonest.

The UK’s relatively high reliance on food from "third countries" (ie outside the EU) means that we are particularly unsuited to acting in concert with 26 others. But, as a consequence of being tied to import tariffs determined by and for other countries, we contribute 43 per cent of the EU’s total take on food tariffs* – Kiwi lamb, for example, has a tariff of 173 per cent (although some meat products’ tariffs exceed 400 per cent).

Outside the EU, we would set our own tariffs. Although we would of course still have to continue protecting our own farmers to some degree from a few exporters, the consumer would definitely be far better off when shopping.


* Caveat: this figure is from a 2006 Open Europe fact sheet.

Edited by user 14 January 2013 18:57:26(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Ravenscar
#8 Posted : 14 January 2013 18:40:25(UTC)
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I should have said - thanks for this [above blog] post - it sets it out in stark terms Britain's infinitely negligible to none existent position vis-a-vis the EU and the acquis [very important] - even Dave could understand it.


Quote:
To remain in the European Union is to remain committed to political union



That's what Cameron will not admit - even to himself.

Quote:

There are no half measures.


Indeed.


It may be that, already it is too late, further f8rting around by Eton Tory boy makes and allows for the nation to be driven further into the EU midden [and Miliband's mission].............or is he stalling purposefully and all the time - he was batting for the Brussels cowshot strollers anyway - you have to wonder.

Edited by user 15 January 2013 00:30:16(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

stuart
#9 Posted : 14 January 2013 19:02:42(UTC)
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Quote:
The EU is not primarily (or at all) a trading body. It is a supranational organisation devoted to securing political union, with the chosen modus of using economic integration as a means of achieving political integration. Thus, the one-way flow of power is neither accidental nor negotiable. It is the very essence of the European Union.

On this basis, the EU cannot and will not breach the principle of irreversibility. To do so would prejudice the very nature of the European Union, and comprise an existential threat. Negotiations aimed at achieving this end cannot possibly succeed.

To achieve his aims, therefore, Mr Cameron must decouple trade from political union. This cannot be done from inside the European Union. He must invoke Article 50 in order to secure a new relationship whereby Britain is only involved in trade and allied issues, rejecting altogether political integration. To remain in the European Union is to remain committed to political union, where trade is secondary to this objective and is simply seen as a means of achieving political union.


Three paragraphs that are worth more than the entire output of the MSM, ad finitum.
Flashman
#10 Posted : 14 January 2013 19:45:17(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: stuart Go to Quoted Post
Quote:
The EU is not primarily (or at all) a trading body. It is a supranational organisation devoted to securing political union, with the chosen modus of using economic integration as a means of achieving political integration. Thus, the one-way flow of power is neither accidental nor negotiable. It is the very essence of the European Union.

On this basis, the EU cannot and will not breach the principle of irreversibility. To do so would prejudice the very nature of the European Union, and comprise an existential threat. Negotiations aimed at achieving this end cannot possibly succeed.

To achieve his aims, therefore, Mr Cameron must decouple trade from political union. This cannot be done from inside the European Union. He must invoke Article 50 in order to secure a new relationship whereby Britain is only involved in trade and allied issues, rejecting altogether political integration. To remain in the European Union is to remain committed to political union, where trade is secondary to this objective and is simply seen as a means of achieving political union.


Three paragraphs that are worth more than the entire output of the MSM, ad finitum.


ThumpUp

AutonomousMind
#11 Posted : 14 January 2013 19:56:58(UTC)
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The value of this post cannot be overstated.

Excellent work, Richard. Delighted to see there will be more to follow. I have an idea and will give you a ring shortly.
“The Democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give to those who would not.”
thespecialone
#12 Posted : 14 January 2013 20:58:28(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: AutonomousMind Go to Quoted Post
The value of this post cannot be overstated.

Excellent work, Richard. Delighted to see there will be more to follow. I have an idea and will give you a ring shortly.


Agreed with AM. That is one demolition of Cameron I am going to keep. Can't wait for the demolition of his Friday speech. Thank you very much.
Mark B
#13 Posted : 14 January 2013 22:32:47(UTC)
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Quote:
Dr. North wrote:

What it also reveals, though, is that Cameron, in common with many senior politicians and political journalists, is massively ill-informed about the nature of the European Union.


Or is he bring wilfully ill-informed to serve his masters' ?

Whatever he says, I think a lot of people are going to be a bit disappointed, which will be no surprise.
Frank Davis
#14 Posted : 15 January 2013 00:13:34(UTC)
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Quote:
What it also reveals, though, is that Cameron, in common with many senior politicians and political journalists, is massively ill-informed about the nature of the European Union. He is thus hopelessly ill-informed on what is and is not possible to achieve in terms of negotiations.


I would think that he is almost certainly perfectly well-informed. He has simply chosen to try to do something that can't be done, in full knowledge that it will fail, so that he can at least pretend to have tried to do something. And most likely all the other senior politicians are just as well-informed as he is, but go along with the charade, because they want it to fail too.

It's the Canute strategy.
richard
#15 Posted : 15 January 2013 00:34:22(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Frank Davis Go to Quoted Post
Quote:
What it also reveals, though, is that Cameron, in common with many senior politicians and political journalists, is massively ill-informed about the nature of the European Union. He is thus hopelessly ill-informed on what is and is not possible to achieve in terms of negotiations.


I would think that he is almost certainly perfectly well-informed. He has simply chosen to try to do something that can't be done, in full knowledge that it will fail, so that he can at least pretend to have tried to do something. And most likely all the other senior politicians are just as well-informed as he is, but go along with the charade, because they want it to fail too.

It's the Canute strategy.




The impression of those closer to him is that he genuinely believes that he can pull off a renegotiation. Never underestimate the degree of ignorance in the Conservative Party.

Ravenscar
#16 Posted : 15 January 2013 07:31:12(UTC)
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Everything is up for grabs! This one [EU referendum conundrum] has much more to play.

Cameron's speech, is maybe the beginning of the end of the start of the 40 year march to freedom.

First thing Cameron must do after this speech, now his proffered boundary changes are scuppered - he must forthwith end or bin the postal ballot.

In 2015 - Miliband is not by any means a shoe in in the forthcoming General Election. Plus and a very big spanner in the works, the electorate will slay the Lib dhimmis - that mid nineties experiment - sensitive Tories turning yellow has hit the buffers - up and down the country people are fed up. Coming home to roost, the realisation that "they're all part of the same old crap - the liblabcon" is definitely starting to sink in - even with thickheaded dyed in the wool, clog wearing, imbecilic, "me gran-fetha marched with Lenin" card carrying Socialists and Tory blue rinse brigade and shiresmen/women.


OK, on UKIP - reading between the lines - this is not just about leaving the EU [although it is if you know what I mean]. For many people, UKIP policy ideas and pragmatism; on immigration, energy and taxes make good reading and appeal, the implementation however difficult - is a moot point at this juncture.

The British awakening, is a crisis for the political old guard and definitely not - is it just about the EU.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Could it be, that Cameron is setting the EU up, showing he's ready to negotiate and knowing that the colleagues never will and that nowt will accrue - then to go back to Westminster to declare, "I am invoking article 50!"

Ah, um, er - OK - dream on
Nottoobrite
#17 Posted : 15 January 2013 07:51:23(UTC)
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Seems like everybody is putting there eggs in the same basket !

This person cannot even stand on his own two feet, just watch his body language when he is addressing his sheep in Parliament!

Cameron is a politician, and his mind goes on "sick" when he has to tell the truth, I think somewhere in the not so distant past (before the last election ) he said, read my lips, Referendum ? This person is a spot changer, would he pass an intelligence test ? If there was nobody around to write the answers, No ! What a subject he would have been for George Orwell, but no, the subject matter is to far fetched for even George to get it published .

stuart
#18 Posted : 15 January 2013 08:08:37(UTC)
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Cameron has already "had" a lot of people once. Certainly for me, a manifesto pledge is not enough as Stuart Wheeler discovered they are worthless.
David Coe
#19 Posted : 15 January 2013 09:14:53(UTC)
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A rock and a hard place does not even begin to describe the position that Cameron has got himself into. He is a total europhile and cannot even begin to contemplate life outside the EU. Hence no referendum! Unfortunately for the europhiles and the political elite in general that is not the end of the story. The EU's economic problems, entirely predictable, cannot be resolved by traditional economic solutions and will by necessity result in closer political integration of the eurozone. This will happen with or without an IGC. Britain will have no choice but to stand and watch. It will be like waving the Titanic goodbye from Southampton keyside. The issue of EU membership therefore cannot this time be swept under the carpet. Arguing for Britain to remain as a "second class" member of the EU is going to be a much more difficult task for the europhiles. Arguing for Britain to join an increasingly fractious eurozone will be a non starter. The probable outcome is that the EU leaves Britain. Interesting times indeed!
ELF
#20 Posted : 15 January 2013 10:13:32(UTC)
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IMHO, a brilliant post, Richard
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