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EU politics: Cameron's strategy in tatters?
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The Guardian is claiming that "David Cameron's entire European strategy has been thrown into doubt" by Angela Merkel who has abandoned plans to call for a major revision of EU treaties. Cameron's current strategy (or so we are told), is to wait for the expected IGC, when the "colleagues" planning to go for a treaty revision, and then hijack it with demands to allow repatriation of powers to the UK. The theory was that the threat of a veto would force the issue and give Cameron what he wanted. However, it is now "understood" that Merkel has given up on the idea of a major treaty revision for the moment, having decided that it is fruitless to push for a treaty revision in the face of strong opposition from France and elsewhere. That would leave Cameron with nowhere to go. View full article here
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Quote:With the weakness in that strategy now exposed, Douglas Alexander, the shadow foreign secretary, is piling on the agony. He says that Cameron is risking pushing Britain towards exit from Europe, as he is not in control of the agenda.
However, it remains the view in Whitehall that eurozone governance arrangements will need "greater democratic accountability" underpinned in another EU treaty, so there will eventually have to be an IGC. "Europe is dealing with an existential crisis," one British source is cited as saying. But while that may be correct, the key word here is "eventually". There is no expectation that an IGC will be some time soon. Priceless from Alexander, "he is not in control of the agenda", we need expert advice from the Labour party, like we need another hole drilling in our heads. Plus, Dave never was and never will be in control of the agenda, unless he invokes article 50 - then, that will engender an extraordinary ICG - because the 'crisis' would enter an existential phase - then Mr. Cameron could claim with a little justification that, "I am setting the agenda!"
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Hmm, this from Raedders, an eye opener no doubt.... Quote: The euro has benefited German industry, but it is expropriating the German saver and the German taxpayer. As the system works well for Germany's export industry, German politicians can tell the German people that all is well in the "best of all possible worlds". If the euro were wound up today, Germany would stand to lose hundreds of billions. Through the rescue funds, government bond buys and Target2 system the ECB and the German government are propping up a system that is ultimately unsustainable. With the euro rescue, Germany is shackled to a corpse. Germany's Panglossian politicians refuse to accept that even now Germany would be better off cutting her losses. Draghi, meanwhile, has not lost sight of his project for the "lirafication" of the euro and busily pours liquidity into the financial market at negligible interest – in defiance of his mandate and the EU treaties, to the eurozone's ultimate doom.
Here.Draghi, has got the Germans over a barrel, the German taxpayer has been funding the export of German goods all throughout the EZ and when this hits the fan - it's no wonder they don't want any new negotiations [treaty changes etc] or any country rocking the boat [know what I mean John?]. And - no wonder also is Obarmy animated - he must know the real game going on here - Germany needs propping up and what a performer of smoke and mirrors is old goldensachsballs super Mario - single handed and doing all the work of the Brussels mafia. Barroso, fat Maoist liar and sails serenely on and claims, "the euro is now out of danger!"
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Cameron's predicament would be all rather amusing if it wasn't so serious. I'm not convinced that the veto of a treaty would get Cameron off the hook either. Given that the next major revision is likely to deal with the Eurozone crisis, is Cameron, in the face of world wide pressure for a Euro solution and terrible market conditions, really going to hold up a treaty for the sake of the Working Time Directive? He will be an international laughing stock. Even if the "colleagues" did give way and didn't call his bluff undoubtedly the price paid will be more powers given up elsewhere - likely in relation the mechanism of the Euro itself. Edited by user 12 January 2013 08:43:04(UTC)
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It takes a special political ineptitude to back yourself into the corner that Cameron has. His prevarication has signalled weakness to everyone. EU leaders are queueing up to close off his options, making faux Euroscepticism look ever more threadbare, while his indecision only makes hard Eurosceptics feel their position is stronger.
It's almost like a Chancellor getting blame for slashing and cutting while actually doing very little.
Two clots at the top. |
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Quote:It takes a special political ineptitude to back yourself into the corner that Cameron has Will it never occur to Mr. Cameron, that only one man can be - all things to all men and that, he lives in the White House. Edited by user 12 January 2013 09:11:25(UTC)
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Another reason for Cameron to delay the speech again possibly: Quote:David Cameron has astonished Berlin by looking to make his controversial Europe speech on the same day that France and Germany stage lavish celebrations marking their postwar reconciliation.
To add to the diplomatic drama, Mr Cameron is considering making his speech in Germany on the day hundreds of French and German politicians gather in Berlin to mark the 50th anniversary of the Elysée treaty.
British officials insist the provisional date “is not intended” to be provocative. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/...ab49a.html#axzz2HerI5lYa
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Quote:Another reason for Cameron to delay the speech again possibly: Quote: David Cameron has astonished Berlin by looking to make his controversial Europe speech on the same day that France and Germany stage lavish celebrations marking their postwar reconciliation. To add to the diplomatic drama, Mr Cameron is considering making his speech in Germany on the day hundreds of French and German politicians gather in Berlin to mark the 50th anniversary of the Elysée treaty. British officials insist the provisional date “is not intended” to be provocative. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/...ab49a.html#axzz2HerI5lYa Tis a shame they have passed and in the days of perfidious Albion, the timing would have been precise.
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Quote:Then we get Austrian Chancellor Werner Faymann launching a broadside at Cameron, accusing him of sending mixed messages when it comes to the EU. What he said depended on whether he was addressing the British people or a meeting in Brussels, Faymann told Saturday's edition of Austria's daily newspaper Standard. This Faymann can't have met many politicians, it seems...
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Quote:"To commit to a referendum about a negotiation that hasn't begun, on a timescale you cannot predict, on an outcome that's unknown......" Although he argues as usual for all the wrong reasons, it must be admitted that on this one Heseltine has a point, and it serves to emphasise Cameron's dilemma - i.e. daily he is being boxed in ever more into a corner from which there seems to be no way of escape. But then that is EU reality catching up with the Tories non polcies on "Europe" over so many years. If all the options are closing, and the time scale for a "decision" shrinking, then it appears to me that DC will find his coming speech one of the hardest to utter, being short on conviction and substance. Looks more and more like an In/Out referendum will be the only option. But of course he will not say that IMO, but we will get a further load of old waffle, full of cliches, vague aspirations, Britain's interest de da de da, and larded with "doing the right thing" A re-mix of the old 'jam tomorrow' theme.
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Quote:The EU would undoubtedly become a different animal post BRIXIT. The dirigiste and protectionists forces would start to gain the upper hand, much to the horror of Germany, Holland, Denmark, Sweden, and Ireland, and a few (but not all) of the East Europeans. There is certainly a case to be made that the EU would start to unravel. It has always been my view (not widely shared) that British withdrawal would be a body blow to the EU Project. Yet the debate always focuses on how much damage Britain would or would not suffer, as if the EU would simply go on as before. That is a static and essentially empty debate. This is an interesting comment by AEP in the DT - under the heading 'We cannot let America's tactical interest dictate Britain's Sovereign destiny'
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Originally Posted by: graham wood  Quote:The EU would undoubtedly become a different animal post BRIXIT. The dirigiste and protectionists forces would start to gain the upper hand, much to the horror of Germany, Holland, Denmark, Sweden, and Ireland, and a few (but not all) of the East Europeans. There is certainly a case to be made that the EU would start to unravel. It has always been my view (not widely shared) that British withdrawal would be a body blow to the EU Project. Yet the debate always focuses on how much damage Britain would or would not suffer, as if the EU would simply go on as before. That is a static and essentially empty debate. This is an interesting comment by AEP in the DT - under the heading 'We cannot let America's tactical interest dictate Britain's Sovereign destiny' It is also the case that EFTA/EEA might be transformed if the UK joins it, and especially if other countries then detach themselves from the EU and also join. One could see the existing EU contract to include the core eurozone countries, which would focus on political union, leaving a "greater Europe alliance" dedicated to trade. Edited by user 12 January 2013 10:46:23(UTC)
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Crikey! I was regarded with the suspicion usually reserved for lunatics when we had this discussion in my 6th. form General Studies class (the only subject I was any good at) in the early 1970's. I said that the EC would remove our manufacturing and wreck our agriculture and that we'd be better off staying in, and making a go of, EFTA with like-minded nations such as the Scandinavians, while keeping our Commonwealth commitments. The "ever-closer union" bit wasn't mentioned much then - just Latin hyperbole I suppose if it ever surfaced.
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Originally Posted by: John Page  It takes a special political ineptitude to back yourself into the corner that Cameron has. His prevarication has signalled weakness to everyone. EU leaders are queueing up to close off his options, making faux Euroscepticism look ever more threadbare, while his indecision only makes hard Eurosceptics feel their position is stronger.
It's almost like a Chancellor getting blame for slashing and cutting while actually doing very little.
Two clots at the top. Quite,dithering is never a strong leadership quality. I would never have expected the pretender to do anything other than procrastinate and try to hang on in there, any fashion he can,which he will until someone puts him out of his misery.Wonder who it will be? Edited by user 12 January 2013 18:00:01(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: John Page  It takes a special political ineptitude to back yourself into the corner that Cameron has. His prevarication has signalled weakness to everyone. EU leaders are queueing up to close off his options, making faux Euroscepticism look ever more threadbare, while his indecision only makes hard Eurosceptics feel their position is stronger.
It's almost like a Chancellor getting blame for slashing and cutting while actually doing very little.
Two clots at the top. Cameron's a particularly miserable specimen, but it's possible to get too caught up with him. This business of actually supporting integration but pretending they are not, andthat there's some way to pick the bits we want out of the EU or reform it, has been Tory policy for many years. The reasons they've gone in for this schizophrenic approach are obvious. If a major long standing policy direction relies on hoodwinking your supporters, you eventually run out of credulous fools. Especially trying when his next move is probably to sell a promise of what he'll do after the next GE. Cameron inherited this scheme for putting off the question of 'Europe' which had worked well for ages, although he took to it enthusiastically. It isn't possible to resolve it without risking breaking up the Conservative party. He doesn't seem to be a bloke who's likely to come down one side or the other and take the consequences. I'd guess he'd be happy enough if he manages to blag it out until the election without the Tories being torn apart.
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Cameron couldn't make a landmark in the sands of Sword beach, let alone in a speech. He is a scorchmark in the underpants of history.
I despise you, Wonderboy. You are not conservative; you are a socialite socialista, a bourgois bolshevik.
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 1 user thanked Robert of Ottawa for this useful post.
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Quote:To add to the diplomatic drama, Mr Cameron is considering making his speech in Germany on the day hundreds of French and German politicians gather in Berlin to mark the 50th anniversary of the Elysée treaty.
A deliberate choice. There will be no continental press, only UK bubble gum shoes.
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Originally Posted by: richard  ' ... Then we get Austrian Chancellor Werner Faymann launching a broadside at Cameron, accusing him of sending mixed messages when it comes to the EU. What he said depended on whether he was addressing the British people or a meeting in Brussels, Faymann told Saturday's edition of Austria's daily newspaper Standard ... ' Someone else sees that Grooovey Dave says what he thinks his audience of the moment wishes to hear without apparently understanding that we have been living in an 'era' of mass communications for several decades, during which the means of communication have become both more commonplace and cheaper. One could be forgiven for thinking that a former marketing 'exec' employed by a broadcaster might understand that.
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From Tim MontgomerieQuote: Multiple sources say Number 10 very worried it can't meet sky high expectations for Europe speech without enraging LDs, EU leaders, CBI etc.
Only confirms what we already knew of course...seems there's a hint in there that Cameron's get out will be he wants to deliver but can't 'cos of those 'pesky Lib Dems'
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