Last summer, many of the political know-alls were convinced we would be having an EU referendum before the next election. Now, almost as if by osmosis, the claque is waking up to the idea that the earliest we might see a referendum is 2017 or 2018. One of the first was The Spectator, which was followed by The Daily Mail. At some time, The Sun and The Times also cottoned on.

What none of these brave adventurers seem to have realised, though, is that this extended time lag – the same length as an entire electoral term – has profound implications for David Cameron.

Given that he has already used up his quota of trust on the "Europe" issue and is already struggling with a massive credibility gap after having refused a referendum on Lisbon, his forthcoming speech is calculated to restore his fortunes and put him back in control of the agenda. Except that the resumption of control rests on his ability to make credible promises.

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Richard wrote about Cameron -




This could be beneficial to the general run of politics in the UK. When Blair came along we moved from Labour to Nulabour, apart from a bit of policy shuffling nothing really changed. So rather like a slow puncture in a tyre all the pressure went out of it, it lost its magic. I say the same thing is about to happen to the Tory party.

In a while we may even see an unseemly fight for the leadership of the Tory party much as the one between the Miliband brothers for the remnants of the left. How about Jesse Norman versus Michael Gove, winner takes the bits that work for scrap value?

Get this behind us and the bulk of the nation will be so put off traditional politics that anybody offering something new stands a chance. Enter the Harrogate Agenda!

Please note I left the LibDems out of my thesis as they are such a small thing they make no difference!

I conjecture that Mr Cameron will simply fob off the uninformed majority with another cast-iron promise.

It is slipping all the time ... that clearly reflects the turrmoil in his camp. We think he doesn't know what to do ...

http://yourfreedomandour...tch-or-double-dutch.html

As Cameron has repeatedly said he will not leave the EU he really is up a blind alley. Unable to repatriate powers and unwilling to give an in/out referendum, what is he going to offer?

It's long been clear to anyone who's looked at this that he can't renegotiate and repatriate powers. Now I think the message is getting out generally that he can't repatriate powers and that what's passed for Tory policy on the EU is a pack of lies, or a fantasy based on a misconception, or maybe just a great mare's nest, because they don't understand what they are doing.

He can't say we're in and committing to the Euro etc, and he isn't going to say we are getting out, so he really has to plug the renegotiation line (despite what Rumpy Pumpy etc have said) and maybe a referendum at the end of it a long time off. I bet there'll be a lot of padding about going forwards with our European partners and constructive engagement, not sullen isolation, looking forward, not looking back, blah blah. An advanced exercise in fence sitting.

The basic problem is that he can't state an honest and realistic policy on the EU and I get the impression that a lot of senior Tories are getting fed up with that.

It's all wearing very thin. You can only lead people up the garden path a limited number of times before they cotton on

I've always thought his main objective is to get through to the next GE, which he assumes is lost, without rocking the boat..