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Climate change: a surfeit of warming?
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richard
#1 Posted : 06 January 2013 13:58:06(UTC)
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We saw extreme cold in China in 2008 and then again in 2009 - all good evidence of how the grip of global warming was tightening its grip. These conditions, however, turned out to be minor perturbations, compared with what China is experiencing now - the coldest winter in almost three decades, freezing coastal waters and trapping 1,000 ships in ice.

Since late November the country has withstood average temperatures of -3.8ºC, 1.3ºC colder than the long-term average and the chilliest for 28 years. The bitter cold has even frozen the sea in Laizhou Bay on the coast of Shandong province in the east, stranding nearly 1,000 ships. Transport around the country has been severely disrupted.

More than 140 flights from the state capital airport in central Hunan province were delayed, while heavy snowfall forced the closure of some sections of the Beijing-Hong Kong-Macau Expressway. Temperatures in the north east fell even further, reaching a 43-year low of -15.3ºC, about 3.7ºC below normal.

View full article here
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Robert of Ottawa
#2 Posted : 06 January 2013 14:18:40(UTC)
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Well done Cameron, your Department of Energy and Climate Change and your ever increasing electricity costs. Well done all you good chaps. You have succeeded in fighting global warming. Well done, carry on!
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mmatis on 06/01/2013(UTC)
Dave Evans
#3 Posted : 06 January 2013 14:21:26(UTC)
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Just gotta love the Homeland Security spin on it...

Increasingly navigable Arctic indeed!
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Robertm
#4 Posted : 06 January 2013 14:26:26(UTC)
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The cold weather in China actually made the Radio 4 one o'clock news programme yesterday along with the ships trapped in the ice. They said it was the worst winter cold in 30 years. I also spotted the Alaskan cold on Watts up with That, I was hoping you would be on the case. In the meantime if you haven't seen them here are a couple of posts from Matt Ridley about some of the benfits of rising CO2 levels and agrotechnology. The chief executive of Waitrose is in the Telegraph warning of major price hikes in the offing for food. It would help if we stopped using food to make petrol.


http://www.rationaloptim...ening-of-the-planet.aspx
http://www.rationaloptim...ak-farmland-is-here.aspx
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FrankS
#5 Posted : 06 January 2013 15:31:53(UTC)
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But surely climate is not the same thing as weather! So it's quite possible for the climate to get steadily warmer while the weather gets ever colder!
Of course, I may have misunderstood this...
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comet
#6 Posted : 06 January 2013 15:38:10(UTC)
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How are everyone's drought resistant plants doing?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/gar...her_climatewarming.shtml
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flyinthesky
#7 Posted : 06 January 2013 16:01:25(UTC)
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I caught this little snippet in the MoS:
"In 2008, David Mackay, now the chief scientific adviser at the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC), wrote that if one put a strip of wind turbines more than two miles wide around the whole of Britain’s coastline, it would still generate only less than half of the country’s electricity needs."
Big business and big money are involved so it's not going away any time soon.
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TheOceanian
#8 Posted : 06 January 2013 17:02:12(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: FrankS Go to Quoted Post
But surely climate is not the same thing as weather! So it's quite possible for the climate to get steadily warmer while the weather gets ever colder!
Of course, I may have misunderstood this...


But the head of the Met Office has stated that the computer models used for predicting 'climate change' are the same ones used to forecast the weather. So, in their little world they are obviously the same so we can attribute the same confidence in their climate change predictions for the next 50 years as we can to their weather forecasts for the next 12 months ... oh, wait .... Confused

See ... http://www.metoffice.gov...guide/future/projections ...

Quote:
As part of the Met Office's Unified Model, the atmosphere component of the climate model represents the same physical processes as that used for operational weather forecasts. However, due to the longer timescales involved in climate prediction, other components of the climate system are added including:

three-dimensional representation of the ocean and sea ice;

an interactive carbon cycle model;

interactive atmospheric chemistry models;

the coupled atmosphere - ocean - carbon-cycle - chemistry model is known as an earth system model.


So, they add extra "bits" to the weather forecasting model but if the weather part isn't to be relied on, and I've never found it to be reliable for more than 12/24 hours ahead, then I'll be b&55ered if Im going to believe their climate change predictions!

TO
Carpe diem .....
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comet
#9 Posted : 06 January 2013 17:58:13(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: TheOceanian Go to Quoted Post

So, they add extra "bits" to the weather forecasting model but if the weather part isn't to be relied on, and I've never found it to be reliable for more than 12/24 hours ahead, then I'll be b&55ered if Im going to believe their climate change predictions!


I've got an idea that the accuracy of the forecast 24 hours ahead, which is often not great, isn't down to computer models, it's that with satellites and radar the weather can be seen coming.
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moonrakin
#10 Posted : 06 January 2013 22:56:58(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: comet Go to Quoted Post
Originally Posted by: TheOceanian Go to Quoted Post

So, they add extra "bits" to the weather forecasting model but if the weather part isn't to be relied on, and I've never found it to be reliable for more than 12/24 hours ahead, then I'll be b&55ered if Im going to believe their climate change predictions!


I've got an idea that the accuracy of the forecast 24 hours ahead, which is often not great, isn't down to computer models, it's that with satellites and radar the weather can be seen coming.



Correct to a certain extent... although if you watch the isobar charts and wind / wave predictions as I have done for many years you notice that these seem to be software generated estimates which rely on ground instruments and that they deviate wildly the further one gets from an instrument for a given "state forecaster" - they never seem to get the barometer / wind speed and direction from over the border... a source of considerable frustration for those of us trying to make expensive operational decisions.

Some forecasters are definitely better than others. As I understand it - UKMO isn't held in very high regard even by those forced to pay for its forecasts like the RAF / Navy. Beyond 72 hours UKMO are worse than useless.

Edited by user 06 January 2013 23:57:16(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified
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thespecialone
#11 Posted : 07 January 2013 08:07:34(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: comet Go to Quoted Post
How are everyone's drought resistant plants doing?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/gar...her_climatewarming.shtml


I see that there is a notice at the top of the page saying it hasn't been updated for a while and has been left for information only. Surprised that they haven't tried to remove it all together considering their wet dream (or should that be dry predictions) have not come true.
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