Peeping from behind its paywall, The Times is telling us that "a group of senior politicians in Brussels is to propose 'second-class' EU status for Britain in a dramatic shift in thinking by the strongest supporters of a united Europe".

This is the Union of European Federalists, which is to suggest that the UK should become an "associate member" under plans "which would result in it staying in the EU's single market but being stripped of its commissioner in Brussels, MEPs, and its right of veto in the European Council".

Notwithstanding that there is no veto in the European Council, effectively, this gets close to our own position, where Britain leaves the EU but retains membership of the EEA, thus representing a merging of positions where both sides come to the same conclusions as to where the future should lie (for the time being).

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Great piece Richard and cogently well argued (when do you not?).

.............. Surely - they'd be mad to pass up this golden opportunity... Could, Cameron and the Tories refuse this marvellous opportunity to re-calibrate the settings of the blasted EU and to reassert Britain's sovereign rights, freeing us from the strait jacket and enslavement in the Brussels Empire. Astonishingly, Glory BE! - Tis, is a win for him and a win for us. But Cameron is thick, too bloody thick to differentiate betwixt the wood and the trees.

I mean, what could possibly go wrong?


Really.



O/T btw 1019 hits for CB, hmm, with a little help from some wind-up merchant.....

But that means getting out of the EU, which the Tories have always been fundamentally opposed to. I've got a feeling the Tories would far rather lose the next GE than do that and I don't see Cameron going for the nuclear option, he just doesn't seem like a radical kind of guy. Furthermore, it's a question whether he could get enough support in Westminster, basically the whole crowd would have to be brought to the conclusion that it wasn't possible to stay in, which may be an idea which is slowly forming.

My guess for the mid January speech is fumbling and mumbling and a eurosceptic sounding sweetie to be delivered after the next election, which of course is looking lost. I doubt anyone will be surprised by what he comes out with.

Now I'm confused. Hitherto, I thought that article fifty negotiations should naturally follow a referendum and result in an automatic exit should the negotiators fail to reach agreement after two years, yet you seem to state the opposite, unless I've misread you.

I'm not nitpicking; a basic understanding of the tiniest details is important to those of us who hope to argue this case against opponents less informed and better supported. Our case is too important to lose and the few who are willing to argue it cannot do so unless they are properly prepared. Whether or not we are thought of as idiots, useful or otherwise, is irrelevant, all that matters is that we are properly charged and primed.

Yes ThespecialOne and Comet, that is about the sum of it -

I agree also. "Can the leopard change his spots?" No. On his track record, unless of course he has woken up from his Eurodreamland, DC will be in his 'business as usual mode'. Whatever the best opportunist position comes along for extending his hold on power, be sure - he'll be there. Also right I believe is the view that few, if any, will believe any promise from Cameron, and the matter of trust is a supremely important one.
We know very well that the "national interest" is not his concern, so staying in the EU under orders from his shadowy masters will be what he is aiming for behind all the windy verbiage which is about to fall on us like ordure.

Everything is to play for, and the next week or so is going to be frenetic. At some time in the future, we will be looking back over the next few weeks, declaring that this is the period during which the general election was won or lost.

The trouble is unless Cameron pulls a Flemish Giant out of the hat, in the form of a straight in/out referendum or exit via A50 it's going to be one 'glorious fudge' as Niall puts it, which will be worse for the Tories in terms of poll ratings. Cameron can't shake off that 'cast iron' tag to get away with a fudge. I suspect this dilemma is what is taking Cameron so long to deliver the perpetually delayed speech.

Even then I don't think it's enough for the Tories to win the next election - not without reforming the postal voting system and implementing the latest boundary review.

Still, an A50 promise might be enough to bounce Labour into promising the same thing. Then we can all cogitate on what technicality they will try to use to avoid actually delivering a la Lisbon

Edited by user 31 December 2012 10:35:59(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

I don't see that Cameron can just declare Article 50 exit, with the little problem of the Lib Dems and a HoC and HoL largely opposed. It would have to be sold to them, and it is exit, so a psychological barrier is crossed.

I don't know how much force there is in the notion that the UK can hold up the arrangements to set up the institutions for the Eurozone in return for concessions which are completely unacceptable to Brussels and which could set off an avalanche of demands. In any case the competences seem so interrelated it would be a genuinely complex problem. It seems as if The Colleagues are determined the UK won't be allowed to interfere, no matter what's supposed to happen. There are indications that The Colleagues are coming to the conclusion that the UK is more trouble than it's worth, there and again, they can't easily chuck us out. I guess they could make life difficult in the EU especially by bending the rules a bit.

Article 50 seems to imply a political will to get out. We don't have a political will to get out, we have a political will to stay in grimly fighting forces pushing and pulling us out. From my understanding, it doesn't necessarily end in exit and it doesn't necessarily have an end point - once again it depends on the political will and we have a government and greater government forced along a path it doesn't want to take. How much mucking about would The Colleagues put up with? On the one hand it's a dangerous precedent and disruption, on the other hand it's getting rid of a disruptive nuisance.

As for Cameron, my guess is that he's inclined to fudge things and bias them towards staying in, but practically he's stuck with some sort of fudge anyway. As pointed out previously, any promise he makes about what will happen after the next GE is likely to be dismissed out of hand, but he isn't in a position to do much before the next GE. In any case, Cameron has problems with the next GE apart from the EU and matters arising from it, such as having gone out of his way to piss off large sections of his following over other things.

Particularly as A50 and the EEA route robs UKIP of MEPs - whoops

I don't trust a word the Green Tosser mumbles....faaaaaar to much form as a no convictions shit, on the make.


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