Richard, I suspect they'll also want to be sending a message to anyone else who is thinking of leaving. They are just using techniques that the likes of the mafia have used with much success; i.e. if you leave things will be the worse for you, so best keep quiet, do as you're told and you'll be OK.

The leaving will be traumatic, that's for sure. But, the having left will be glorious for us; to once more breath the air of freedom, to be masters of our own destiny. What's not to like?

Right, bending the rules and kicking them into touch was OK if Greeks wanted entry but if you wanna leave - then lies, threats and arm twisting, blackmail is OK too - and then - threaten the Brits with the 'inflexible rules' writ in blood and cast in iron and sent down by the Gods.

Renegotiation - tis a game they all play - however, we know full well that the colleagues will not accede to any requests for the British regaining sovereign control over certain EU competencies and legal statutes. An idea and something the Whitehall mandarins detest - their precious 'project' in Union with their French and German bureaucratic elitists generally means that the real fighting battle is in Britain and not in Brussels - ratchet that Cameron.

The more people like Van Rumpy Pumpy and Obama come out and say how 'they want to see the UK remain in the EU and how 'tough' things would be for us outside', the more my mind is made up to leave. Not that it took much to come to that conclusion ......

On reflection part of me is puzzled. I was convinced that amid all the posturing the EU, understanding Cameron's predicament (desperate to stay members while pretending not to), would have thrown him a life line in the form of a few powers back that in reality amount to nothing but which Cameron could boast about at 'home'. A sort of 'fake' veto scenario.

By leaving him "little room for manoeuvre" essentially they're cornering him and calling his bluff. Either they're convinced Cameron is so wedded to the project he will give in or are they pushing us out because they've had enough? Is it that the final stages of integration is now far more important than to be weighed down by the reluctant member?

As I wrote above what is missing from the calculation is that the political class does not appreciate that the EU is viewed, albeit at a subconscious level, as having a colonial relationship with the UK.
It is not about calling Cameron’s bluff ,as the Camerons come and go ,but the need to realise that it is the British people who are resentful and they are not bluffing. They don’t care if the EU breaks up or continues.
An increasingly resentful population will become a serious problem for an organisation that likes to project itself as a beacon of liberty.

Cameron isn't anti-EU, at least. It's plain he doesn't want to do anything definite in this term of office, and even if he did, he would have some difficulty as there isn't a majority in the HoC for direct action. It's looking like he won't have another term. To that extent, Cameron is pretty much irrelevant.

From the point of view of the EU, they have the Eurozone to consolidate and they certainly don't want to open a Pandora's Box of renegotiation and special pleading which would waste their time and lead to others wanting the same. It's been made clear that the UK is not going to be allowed to hold the consolidation of the Eurozone hostage for concessions.

Things are getting to the stage where Cameron (or whoever) couldn't sell a red-line or opt-out, he'd have to be given meat and they can't give him meat.

From the point of the EU, it's risk having the UK leave, which they wouldn't particularly want because it would disrupt the Project - but UK politicians may be able to swing it, with a little help with scare stories - or have the UK in with all sorts of special concessions, which would be time wasting and dangerous and from their point of view, rewarding bad behaviour.

They've decided to tough it out, take it or leave it. In their position it's a sensible strategy. Part of the calculation of based on what we all know, anti-EU sentiment is not rock solid.

Edited by user 28 December 2012 13:32:15(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

That's a good point, Cameron can only offer exit to reinvigorate his party (which he probably won't do) or failing that he loses in 2015 so the EU then will be dealing with a more compliant Labour party.

It could be the time of year but I just can't stop laughing at all this. First we have yer-man Robert Cooper. Was he really a top diplomat and leading light in the EU? His 'argument' is at such a low level as to be ridiculous.

Then we have the Guardian quoting Wolfgang Schäuble, 'that Britain would be shooting itself in the foot......'. Did he really say that?

Considering that Schäuble has been the victim of an assassination attempt that left him paralysed if I'd have been the sub-editor I would have double checked the translation, and maybe even used another form of words even if it were true.

It has all gone mad.

It's tempting to think that the Colleagues act as one and anything they say is thought through and coordinated within Brussels and after checking with the UK Colleagues.

It's quite likely there are different schools of thought as to dealing with the UK nuisance. Tough it out and force it to do as it's told or just get rid of it before it causes any more upset. I doubt any of the schools include the Tories' pick 'n' mix fantasy, which for them is the worst of all worlds. They can't just get rid of it, but they can encourage it to go away, which is not much different to fit in or fuck off.

Also I doubt that TPTB in the UK all sing from the same hymn sheet. Some see the renegotiation twaddle as a smokescreen for in, some see it as a way of avoiding the problem, some actually believe it's possible.

I gather that Tory thinking is that Hague's audit reports in 2014 in time for the negotiation of the new treaty. Armed with a list of requirements from Hague's audit, intrepid British negotiators will threaten to halt the process unless they get what they want.