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richard
#1 Posted : 26 December 2012 22:09:19(UTC)
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Published in the loss-making Guardian today is a new ICM poll which claims that more than half of respondents would vote to take UK out of EU in a referendum. And, according to this result, we are told that "the public mood of Euroscepticism is hardening".

Specifically, the ICM poll finds 51 percent would vote "out", split between 36 percent who say they would "definitely vote for out and 15 percent who indicate that they would probably want to get out. This is against 40 percent "inners" split between 22 definites and 18 percent probables. That gives an overall advantage to the outers of 11 percent.

The Guardian compares this with a previous ICM poll, published in the autumn of 2011, which had 49 percent wanting out, against 40 of inners, giving a margin of 11 percent. By that measure, the paper records a "slight hardening" of opinion, putting anti-EU feeling in the majority.

View full article here
Ravenscar
#2 Posted : 27 December 2012 01:12:43(UTC)
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The figures are slightly heartening, however really they do not add up to a hill of beans.

I was talking to a cousin, who lives over in Erin. He regaled me of some stories about the 'stay in EU juggernaut' and he explained that the forces [UK side] that would be mobilised in the 'in' camp would be formidable, truly formidable.

But and but and But - David lined up against a giant and his aim was true. Albion, we have been here before and stuffed the Corsican megalomaniac and held the line against the Barmy Austrian corporal as well - by comparison, it should be a cake walk.

Edited by user 27 December 2012 01:13:59(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

comet
#3 Posted : 27 December 2012 09:46:40(UTC)
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The renegotiation option is the danger. It encompasses the ins who have more sense than to declare for in, the simpletons who think it's possible and the don't knows who think it sounds like a sensible compromise.

I'd guess a lot of politicians believe renegotiation is possible.

I can't see Cameron doing anything in this term. For a start the HoC would not be in favour, even if he wanted it. Assuming nothing happens to force things, the problem will fester for the next 2 and a half years and sentiment will harden further.

Note that very few are making a case for just staying in these days.
richard
#4 Posted : 27 December 2012 09:57:24(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: comet Go to Quoted Post
The renegotiation option is the danger. It encompasses the ins who have more sense than to declare for in, the simpletons who think it's possible and the don't knows who think it sounds like a sensible compromise.

I'd guess a lot of politicians believe renegotiation is possible.

I can't see Cameron doing anything in this term. For a start the HoC would not be in favour, even if he wanted it. Assuming nothing happens to force things, the problem will fester for the next 2 and a half years and sentiment will harden further.

Note that very few are making a case for just staying in these days.



You can see though that the europhiles are beginning to marshal their forces - the Guardian is running a series on the EU with week, and others will follow. The forces of darkness have years to crank up their propaganda machine. We have nothing comparable.
comet
#5 Posted : 27 December 2012 11:40:40(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: richard Go to Quoted Post


You can see though that the europhiles are beginning to marshal their forces - the Guardian is running a series on the EU with week, and others will follow. The forces of darkness have years to crank up their propaganda machine. We have nothing comparable.


I think this is a reaction to the growing euroscepticism and support of UKIP (which isn't altogether the same thing - as per the Ashcroft investigation). It certainly seems to be giving the Conservatives pause for thought.

The idea of pure in is tainted by the fact that we are not in the Eurozone and are not likely to be, so we can't be part of the inner circle, so no leading from the heart of Europe or even a pretence of that. That makes in less attractive to TPTB.

The idea of out is intolerable to TPTB because the consequences would be unthinkable. The jobs and money gravy train stopped, and much policy undermined, green energy, immigration etc. Politicians having to take responsibility and civil servants helping devise workable legislation from scratch - horrible. They want in on any terms for those reasons, but they can't argue that.

There isn't an anti-EU propaganda machine to match up to the BBC, but this is being driven by events in the rest of the EU, and especially by the Euro. If there had been no Euro crisis, I doubt that euroscepticism would be hardening.

I can't see this likely to come to the crunch in less than three years unless driven by external events, because Cameron will avoid it at all costs. As for the years of cranking up, there's such a thing as going too soon. Propaganda is powerful stuff, but it has limits and it can go wrong. Serious problems in the efforts to stabilise the Euro will be hard to paper over.



Mark B
#6 Posted : 27 December 2012 12:29:40(UTC)
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Quote:
Comet wrote:
The idea of pure in is tainted by the fact that we are not in the Eurozone and are not likely to be, so we can't be part of the inner circle, so no leading from the heart of Europe or even a pretence of that. That makes in less attractive to TPTB.


I happen to disagree.

One tends to forget that TPTB are the same one's that have brought us to the point at which we now stand. Who is to say whether they wish us to go further or not. Actions, or inactions as one might suggest, prove more important than mere words. If the so called TPTB want what is best for the people, which is not the same as the 'National Interest' which they keep saying, then they will act according to our general wish, and let us have our say. To date, that has NEVER happened.

They have lied and obfuscated right from the very start and, they show no intent of changing.

The EU-Project moves at a tectonic pace. Once in a while pressure builds up in the system, such as with the faults with Euro, until something gives. Then there is a sudden jolt and the call for more powers for the centre along with the inevitable treaty change.

The trouble is, that this time they need to move to the next stage. That next stage simply cannot be hidden for what it truly is, a Federal Europe.

That is why comments like we have been hearing for the past year of, "Britain being left behind," and "Britain must remain in the EU" are being made. Alternatives to EU membership, such as EEA/EFTA ignored or rubbished.

Lack of any good information on things EU from the MSM means the general public do not have the necessary information to make an informed decision, on a matter that has real implications to their lives.

Cameron's job is to keep the UK at the EU dinner table, no matter what. We may be siting at the end and on the naughty chair, with little too say over the choice of menu. But we will still be asked to pay for most of the meal at the end. And when the time comes, the TPTB will allow us to have 'our say', but on their terms and when the 'right result' can be assured.

As I have said in a previous post. What does voting IN actually mean ? And if we vote IN what safeguards are there against joining the Euro. That last one is still VERY much an option !
F U Fed Up
#7 Posted : 27 December 2012 13:31:06(UTC)
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I wouldn't trust anything from the Grauniad or the Obsessive. If they are showing slender majorities for out, then the true picture is much better for us.

What have the EUWhores to sell. If the Zero doesn't blow up and plunge the EU into total chaos a very big if. There will be an inner Zone from which we are excluded, as there is not a cats chance in hell of us joining the Zero. So at best they can only offer us a place in the 2nd class carriage....with damn all say on anything.....but still paying out a 1st class fortune for that position.

That is why they are running so scared, as even they in their braindead zombie zone realise that no-one is likely to buy that pig in a poke.

In short they either descend into economic ruination, from which we should run away as fast as we can, as by then their project will be forever ruined, or they survive, but under conditions that we cannot possibly remain a part of.

Game set and match to the sceptics....we just have to see which scenario comes first.
Robertm
#8 Posted : 27 December 2012 14:06:45(UTC)
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Quote:
You can see though that the europhiles are beginning to marshal their forces - the Guardian is running a series on the EU with week, and others will follow. The forces of darkness have years to crank up their propaganda machine. We have nothing comparable.


We have the EU itself. Hollande's remark about not having Europe a la carte nails the lie about renegotiation. It has to be in or out with in being a full membership in the long term. They cannot lie about this and hope to get away with it this time. After the German elections in 2013 it will be full steam ahead for economic and monetary union for the 17 with the outsiders on the outside. We know what is coming. Even the MSM will have to explain what the Euro core is doing. We will be in the outer core of Europe but run by Europe. Not a good thing to sell to an increasingly sceptical public, when the alternative is 'give us back our country'.
comet
#9 Posted : 27 December 2012 14:35:48(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Mark B Go to Quoted Post

Cameron's job is to keep the UK at the EU dinner table, no matter what. We may be siting at the end and on the naughty chair, with little too say over the choice of menu. But we will still be asked to pay for most of the meal at the end. And when the time comes, the TPTB will allow us to have 'our say', but on their terms and when the 'right result' can be assured.

As I have said in a previous post. What does voting IN actually mean ? And if we vote IN what safeguards are there against joining the Euro. That last one is still VERY much an option !


If we stay part of the EU, the intention would be that we were eventually sucked into the Euro, assuming they can stabilise it, which isn't a completely safe bet.

I don't see that there's any prospect of being sucked into the Euro in the next few years.

Of course it's Cameron's job to make sure that we stay in, or at least he doesn't want to be held responsible for us leaving. However, there are limits to what the Conservatives can do, that's why they've had to at least attempt to appease their eurosceptic section with the Referendum Lock and other palliatives. They can't just stop or ignore the rising tide of euroscepticism.

Part of the reason no one much is arguing for a straight in is that the EU is changing in front of their eyes and even many of TPTB find that sitting on the end and on the naughty chair isn't that much to their taste. Now I'm sure that many senior Tories actually believe this renegotiation line, so it won't be having the naughty seat, it will be having not only a proper seat, but a privileged seat where we can reject the courses we don't want and have the chef make up specials just for us. Pure fantasy. Part of the problem is that large sections of TPTB have to arrive at the conclusion that being in means having a substandard position and renegotiation isn't on the cards.

I'm intrigued by Miliband's view that we are sleepwalking towards exit. It certainly seems to be a slow and reluctant process of realisation rather than assessing the facts and making a decision.

F U Fed Up
#10 Posted : 27 December 2012 15:13:37(UTC)
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Comet said

Quote:
I'm intrigued by Miliband's view that we are sleepwalking towards exit. It certainly seems to be a slow and reluctant process of realisation rather than assessing the facts and making a decision.


None of the TBTB can contemplate leaving, so they will never make a decision, they will be dragged their kicking and screaming, while comeing up with more and more ridiculous alternatives and scare stories.

They are passengers from now on.

I have come to the conclusion that the main reason the TPTB love the EU, is because we have such low rent venal scumbags in westminster, such as Yeo, it represents very easy pickings....,
Mark B
#11 Posted : 27 December 2012 16:19:35(UTC)
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Quote:
Comet wrote:
I don't see that there's any prospect of being sucked into the Euro in the next few years.


Ah, that's my point. The EU/TPTB do not work in years, they work in decades. Mission creep.

Quote:
They can't just stop or ignore the rising tide of euroscepticism.


I do not believe that people are generally Eurosceptic, not at least by nature. They are unhappy with their lot and blame the EU and our Government for much of our ill's. Well they will keep voting for these types, so what do you expect ? We could debate a whole load of stuff on this particular issue, but I will leave it there.

Quote:
Part of the reason no one much is arguing for a straight in is that the EU is changing in front of their eyes and even many of TPTB find that sitting on the end and on the naughty chair isn't that much to their taste.


Possibly true. But these people can easily be bought off. Been done before. The EU is a past master at buying people with their own money, and making them say, "thank you", by making it conditional that they fly/display the EU flag.

Quote:
Now I'm sure that many senior Tories actually believe this renegotiation line, so it won't be having the naughty seat, it will be having not only a proper seat, but a privileged seat where we can reject the courses we don't want and have the chef make up specials just for us. Pure fantasy. Part of the problem is that large sections of TPTB have to arrive at the conclusion that being in means having a substandard position and renegotiation isn't on the cards.


Agreed ! But to stretch my 'table analogy' a little further. The table we are currently on is the EU table. The menu is 'Fixed'. You may leave certain things but, that has to be agreed before we give the waiter our order. No leaving your Brussels at the side of your plate.

The thing is the menu is increasingly not to our taste, but there is a second table next to ours, the EEA/EFTA table. Their menu is much more flexible and, not only can you pick and mix to get the things you like, but its a little cheaper as well.

TPTB must slowly be brought round so that it becomes 'their idea'. That way we all can work in concert. That is why adding to the debate a 'Straw-man' of, "what does IN actually mean ?"

To expand. The current poll, which this article links too, talks about leaving or staying in. If people were told staying IN meant joining the Euro, how many of those currently wishing to remain would still want to. I would guess, not many.

Quote:
I'm intrigued by Miliband's view that we are sleepwalking towards exit.


Yes, I am too. But he is a man who only has to one thing. And that's NOT loses the next election. Given the current incumbents record, that's not as easily as one might think.

Dodgy Geezer
#12 Posted : 27 December 2012 17:05:53(UTC)
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There is still a long way to go before we can be confident of a win...


I suspect you will find that, if you are confident of a win, you won't get a referendum...
ChiefyinDurham
#13 Posted : 27 December 2012 17:56:21(UTC)
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Well now, I think that after 1/1/14, when the next wave of invaders, in the form of the Romanians & Bulgarians, hit our shores & go straight to the Benefits offices, then more & more people are going to say "Enough". The 2014 Euro Elections promise to be interesting, to say the least. However, I wouldn't put it past the Bastards in Brussels to railroad through their plans for the effective banning of political parties such as UKIP before then...
comet
#14 Posted : 27 December 2012 18:29:55(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Mark B Go to Quoted Post

Quote:
They can't just stop or ignore the rising tide of euroscepticism.


I do not believe that people are generally Eurosceptic, not at least by nature. They are unhappy with their lot and blame the EU and our Government for much of our ill's. Well they will keep voting for these types, so what do you expect ? We could debate a whole load of stuff on this particular issue, but I will leave it there.



The interesting question is, "What's driving euroscepticism?". I mean by that those saying what their intentions would be in a referendum; the 36% wanting out, the 15% tempted to get out and the 18% not confident that staying in is the right decision.

I doubt the answer is along the lines that it's a fundamentally dangerous and anti-democratic utopian experiment which is bound to fail and cause endless misery. Shallow economic arguments are worth nothing because this has always been political in nature, but it knew it could not declare its case openly, so has sought to advance itself by deception.


The travails of the Euro show that it's failing.

We've been lied to and generally don't trust the current crop of politicians one iota. If they are keen, that's a good reason not to be; a general dissatisfaction with the state of things in the UK projected onto the EU.

It's the Fourth Reich and our grandparents didn't lay down their lives for that.

It's the EUSSR and we saw where the USSR ended up.

If it isn't a French thing, it's a German thing, and now we've reached the incredible situation where they are ganging up on us rather than wasting their energies fighting each other, as is the natural order of things.

It's gone too far, we only signed up for a trade agreement, and we were assured we wouldn't be dictated to. Now we have prisoners' votes and gay marriage.

We don't like being ruled by a lot of nasty foreigners, especially Van Rompuy and that Ashton woman. If she isn't foreign, she ought to be.

It's an idea that's had its day.

Allowing huge numbers of Eastern European immigrants, with the prospect of more, is no way to run the country.

Another one which is yet to come is that the EU has closed down the working power stations and plastered the country with windmills thereby causing death and misery to millions and unjustly further enriching those with already full pockets.

I don't think that euroscepticism as in these polls is hard, but it's hardening.
euSSR Go Home
#15 Posted : 28 December 2012 04:13:14(UTC)
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I do tend to agree with those who argue that these polls are just another tool for the propagandists. In the past, I've worked with 'social science' students who've been learning how to phrase and focus the questions. Many are from the East (and so have a foreign view of western culture); they're all working under the Marxist Theory umbrella-whether they know it or not; in addition, they are very much aware of questioning as a power ploy: a questioner can steer a discussion in a preferred direction.

More recently, I responded to one or two You Gov (YG) questionnaires: my mode was exploratory. Even without providing any of the personal information they try to extract (gender, ethnicity, demographics, economics, etc.), I couldn't stand the things -- mainly I think because the 'choices' for response are far too limiting and are based on assumptions I know not of. Furthermore, they seem to think we all want to give our opinions on various celebs and their works in pop culture. I took great delight in never having heard of said shadows in the darkness, and in responding that YG's questions are all far too difficult for me to understand.

If other people take the things even slightly more seriously than I did, I still don't see how anyone can have confidence in the interpretations. This is especially so now that I see the relationship between "Mr. Ashton" (Kellner) and YG.

Edited by user 28 December 2012 04:20:00(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

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