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richard
#1 Posted : 17 December 2012 14:14:18(UTC)
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While us mere mortals have to struggle down in the weeds to learn something of each new and complex subject with which we have to deal, it is comforting to know that there are intellectual giants such as Liam Halligan who are able to reach down and guide us in our endeavours.

Thus does this Gifted Hack tell us not to get too excited about shale gas. And, as a measure of his great intellect, he tells us in no uncertain terms: "While I’m no geologist, reports of 'earthquakes' in Lancashire during recent 'pilot fracks' make worrying reading".

One might, however, respectfully suggest that Halligan widens his reading a tad, perhaps taking in the Royal Society study, which has this to say about these "earthquakes" ...

View full article here
TheBoilingFrog
#2 Posted : 17 December 2012 14:38:48(UTC)
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Quote:
"While I’m no geologist, reports of 'earthquakes' in Lancashire during recent 'pilot fracks' make worrying reading".


Presumably he would be against the building of dams and reservoirs on the same basis?

http://www.sciencedirect...le/pii/S0012825202000636
Ravenscar
#3 Posted : 17 December 2012 15:08:20(UTC)
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Whilst I am actually very concerned about the doming and plethora of minor earthquakes occurring now under a corner of Wyoming in a place called Yellowstone Park and always on the watch as regards nearer to us in Southern Italy around Naples + Iceland and Icelandic seismology, a bit further afield in Indonesia and the Kamchatka peninsula.

I do feel totally unconcerned by minor tremors caused by man made activities under the fields of the Fylde here in Britain.

I mean lets get some measure of perspective here, minor earth tremors caused by hydraulic fracturing are barely perceptible, in Japan, regular quakes (BIG) of Richter scale magnitude 5 and 6 are suffered lightly.

Edited by user 17 December 2012 20:38:58(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

richard
#4 Posted : 17 December 2012 15:35:49(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Ravenscar Go to Quoted Post
Whilst I am actually very concerned about the doming and plethora of minor earthquakes occurring now under a corner of Wyoming in a place called Yellowstone Park and always on the watch as regards nearer to us in Southern Italy around Naples + Iceland and it's seismology, a bit further afield in Indonesia and the Kamchatka peninsula.

I do feel totally unconcerned by minor tremors caused by man made activities under the fields of the Fylde here in Britain.

I mean lets get some measure of perspective here, minor earth tremors caused by hydraulic fracturing are barely perceptible, in Japan, regular quakes (BIG) of Richter scale magnitude 5 and 6 are suffered lightly.




Yes, but reading about imperceptible quakes can be very worrying. The poor dear must really be suffering.

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Ravenscar on 17/12/2012(UTC)
Robertm
#5 Posted : 17 December 2012 15:42:08(UTC)
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Unlike most of bloggers this useful idiot gets paid for his writing. I am glad I no longer need to buy the paper to access his pearls of wisdom.
richard
#6 Posted : 17 December 2012 15:56:19(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Robertm Go to Quoted Post
Unlike most of bloggers this useful idiot gets paid for his writing. I am glad I no longer need to buy the paper to access his pearls of wisdom.


Thanks to the generosity of readers, I get paid for writing this blog ... not as much as Halligan, but at least I can pay off the bailiffs.

F U Fed Up
#7 Posted : 17 December 2012 16:27:26(UTC)
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Halliagan from his Wicki

Quote:
Having previously been a founding board member for Prosperity Capital Management's inaugural fund, Halligan returned to Prosperity Capital Management as Chief Economist in 2007.


They are based in Russia and you don't bite Putins hand....Halligan has previously said he works for them in his column.

I read that article and thought what a shame, as he is very sound on what is wrong with the Financial system/economy.......but I guess he values his kneecaps/life.
comet
#8 Posted : 17 December 2012 16:36:04(UTC)
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There's no doubt that fracking has health consequences. It's already causing a national epidemic of bed wetting.

Ravenscar
#9 Posted : 17 December 2012 16:50:12(UTC)
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Quote:
Yes, but reading about imperceptible quakes can be very worrying. The poor dear must really be suffering.



Thank you for the first genuine belly laugh of the day.

Cool
Tankus
#10 Posted : 17 December 2012 17:26:03(UTC)
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Might be a bit of minor damage ,at the most , if it does reach the surface ...claim it on the household insurance or just only make the dogs bark .......keep the builders employed , and the drop in house prices will make the houses more affordable for first time buyers , there's always a win somewhere for someone

Any thoughts on what that minor earthquake actually means ?

Edited by user 17 December 2012 17:27:53(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

vincent
#11 Posted : 17 December 2012 17:29:20(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: F U Fed Up Go to Quoted Post
Halliagan from his Wicki

Quote:
Having previously been a founding board member for Prosperity Capital Management's inaugural fund, Halligan returned to Prosperity Capital Management as Chief Economist in 2007.


They are based in Russia and you don't bite Putins hand....Halligan has previously said he works for them in his column.

I read that article and thought what a shame, as he is very sound on what is wrong with the Financial system/economy.......but I guess he values his kneecaps/life.


Illuminating.Well whether Halligan likes this or not, it is irrelevant....this is going ahead.

He d have been one of the ones who cheered the Red Flag Act 150 years ago which required a man with a flag to precede the early motor cars ....come to think of it,maybe Putin has some old red flags left over from the good ol' days he can wave at the drilling sites.

Had a quick look at his employers, PCM,and found this nice little disclaimer.

Quote:
Investment in investment vehicles investing in Russia and other CIS countries involves risks not normally associated with vehicles investing in more developed and more politically and economically stable jurisdictions with more sophisticated capital markets and regulatory regimes, such as the United States and Western Europe. Such risks include political, economic and currency risks and the risks associated with investing in underdeveloped legal, regulatory and accounting environments. In addition, the Russian market is volatile and has limited liquidity, transparency and depth. This could result in the relevant investment vehicle, including any Fund, not achieving the desired purchase or sale price for its investments.


http://www.prosperitycap...m/compliance/?ref=/funds


So no need to invest in any of those dangerous UK fields, give it to the Russian mafia instead.RollEyes

Edited by user 17 December 2012 18:00:10(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

moonrakin
#12 Posted : 17 December 2012 18:04:25(UTC)
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Halligan is a frackwit and a self evidently a harlot .

The Barclay bruvvers have quite a diverse range of talents on the payroll don't they?

Does anybody know if there's a Papal Nuncio to Brecqhou?

Edited by user 17 December 2012 18:05:00(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

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Ravenscar on 17/12/2012(UTC)
flyinthesky
#13 Posted : 17 December 2012 19:01:48(UTC)
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Shale gas, the way forward. That said, we hear citations that the energy cost is reducing for Mr Average American by the cost filtering down to the consumer, conversely in our once great country, probably extracted by foreign entities, the net result will be the filtering up of profit margins by the producers and then said profit exported. Our successive governments couldn't win a raffle even if they bought all the tickets.
Shakassoc
#14 Posted : 17 December 2012 21:14:24(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: richard Go to Quoted Post
...as a measure of his great intellect, he tells us in no uncertain terms: "While I’m no geologist, reports of 'earthquakes' in Lancashire during recent 'pilot fracks' make worrying reading".
View full article here


I hope you realise he has actually given us the embodiment of the famous non-headline: 'Small earthquake in Peru: nobody hurt.' Woot

Edited by user 17 December 2012 21:15:41(UTC)  | Reason: Forgot to add smiley

bill poster
#15 Posted : 17 December 2012 21:45:43(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: richard Go to Quoted Post

Nevertheless, the Great Man, who isn't a geologist, also tells us that shale oil and gas is far from cheap, "not least because it requires the continuous drilling of small wells, rather than the long exploitation of big wells. So constant – and costly – drilling is needed just to maintain shale output, let alone increase it". Of course, that might once have been true, but as we have recently observed, technology is changing (and improving) all the time. Small wells are no longer needed, and the drilling isn't continuous.


Just to punch up this argument a little, we might also note that if it is indeed too costly it will go away on its own. He needn't worry about it. That's the genius of profit and loss. If your outputs are valued more that your inputs, you create value for yourself and your customers and carry on, until someone comes up with a more valuable output from them and bids them away from you. If your outputs are valued less than your inputs, you go out of business (unless you are a large bank or other politically connected entity which can grab some tax), freeing those inputs for more productive uses. He can therefore put his mind to rest, having not been forced to stump up any capital for this private enterprise, that if it is indeed very costly, it will go away without his needless pontificating.

(Side note: this analysis of course does not apply to green tech. Since it is being funded by our expropriated resources, and we are forced to buy it, the true cost and benefit of it is therefore properly of concern to all taxpayers)

Edited by user 17 December 2012 21:54:37(UTC)  | Reason: structure

comet
#16 Posted : 17 December 2012 22:12:24(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: flyinthesky Go to Quoted Post
Shale gas, the way forward. That said, we hear citations that the energy cost is reducing for Mr Average American by the cost filtering down to the consumer, conversely in our once great country, probably extracted by foreign entities, the net result will be the filtering up of profit margins by the producers and then said profit exported. Our successive governments couldn't win a raffle even if they bought all the tickets.


It's potentially a way forwards, it looks good but there's no point in counting your chickens before they're hatched. The interesting thing is the determination not to even have a small pilot trial to investigate the feasibility properly. It gives the impression of a lot of people getting the breeze up, and not over earthquakes, and methane in tap water.

It threatens the great green dream of UK and EU energy policy based on the low carbon economy/global warming crap, and all the parasites which have attached themselves to it. That's why the EU seems to be mobilising against it, and we have scare stories put about. There are other factors such as the Ruskies not being keen.

I gather that in most oil and gas plays anywhere in the world, the government is always there grabbing with two hands via licences and taxes and the wicked oil companies don't have everything their own way. As for exporting the profits, these are usually international companies so that becomes a bit vague. Even with British oil minors, anyone can buy the shares.



Tankus
#17 Posted : 17 December 2012 22:49:01(UTC)
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Its not the damage of the earthquakes , its fairly irrelevant , its the actual movement , depth , and its conduit potential for percolation along the fault plane .... that's where it gets interesting ......

I notice that the fracking companies appear to be getting tax subsidies as well , as an "incentive" to get them franking ...the god of profit has a hard on , heh .... or a hard had .!.. heh

Be quite interested to see what the test results will be , and its social and political impact within the localities fracked .
Ravenscar
#18 Posted : 18 December 2012 00:17:29(UTC)
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Quote:
Its not the damage of the earthquakes , its fairly irrelevant , its the actual movement , depth , and its conduit potential for percolation along the fault plane .... that's where it gets interesting ......


It is an interesting point, there are stresses and big fault zones underneath Britain's surface strata but as far as tectonic stresses are concerned the action is in the Med' basin and along the mid Atlantic ridge. Fortunately, Britain's mountain building orogenesis is gone quiet for the last few million years or so, however a bit of water in the right place may get things moving but I don't anticipate Blackpool moving over to Ireland - I mean it ain't the San Andreas fault complex.....BigGrin

Well .....................................I hope notCrying
Tankus
#19 Posted : 18 December 2012 01:24:54(UTC)
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The church strettons a fairly biggie...heh

Its not the resulting stress relief , within the bedrock, as the quakes are fairly minor ,but rather hydrostatic relief within the so called " brine" perhaps.?
..! be like slicing a hot water bottle with a Stanley knife, potentially straight up ,or whichever direction ,even through the overlying impermeable's.
The fault does not even have to be active for the gouge to act like a pipe, fault gouge can range from clays to breccias and will have different permeability values than the surrounding strata.

The reason why our coal is of high quality is due to the fact that our coal measures have undergone significant pressure and temperature variations after deposition..... This inevitably means folding and faulting of the beds ,above and below, the reason why we have big spoil heaps around the coal mines, is not just due to digging down to the seams, but also due vertical or lateral displacement across a fault. The seam will suddenly end, and the miners would have to dig a considerable distance up/down or around to reacquire the seam. Look at a geological map of the fracking areas, they are riddled with faults, there is no uniform overlying impermeable cap rock...

This is all so utterly random,unknown, and outside of control or accurate monitoring....once the fracking chemicals are down there.... Roll the dice, and hope it doesn't come up deep six. Just gas....

Edited by user 18 December 2012 02:00:19(UTC)  | Reason: addition because insomnia has struck....again

Ravenscar
#20 Posted : 18 December 2012 19:06:47(UTC)
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it doesn't come up deep six. Just gas..


You and me both.

Ah yes, the Church Stretton fault [I remember this one - Bishop's Castle earthquake] has been a considerable area of stress for an eon or two some old rocks thereabouts and is still a considerable potential hazard.

You are right, it is a lottery and we don't really know what the causes of hydraulic fracturing may 'dish up' but then life is boring ain't it without a risk or two?! And God knows - do we need some good news and real solutions to energy uncertainties.

Thus, a shale gas 'find' can satisfy both.
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