Thanks Richard for a superb analysis.

Taking up the exchange between yourself and William Gruff, surely the existence of disparate groups seeking to implement the same agenda points to the lack of strong, effective leadership able to understand, grasp and use power effectively and usually ruthlessly.

Farage is not enough, but he is an enormous step in the right direction, I greatly admire his guts and his gob. His personal shortcomings will prevent UKIP from making the progress it could, but this is not his fault.

So far UKIP has failed to attract a sufficiently powerful individual to either challenge Farage for leadership, or to use his skills to obtain political dominance. Not Davies, not Fox as you say Richard, and now, sadly, not Gove. It looks like Cameron really is the best the Tories can do.

If the EU is not seriously worried about Farage’s UKIP, and the power of the voters he attracts, then they are plain nuts. There's no Farage to voice effective dissent to Merkel and Shuable, but then the Germans are doing very nicely, thank you - so far. This will not last, and the German instinct will be to preserve the dominant position gained by currency manipulation - once again, and probably at any cost.

The German's do not share Barrosso's proud idiotic claim to European nationality - like the Greeks, they believe some unpleasant things about the Portuguese, about most of the European nations, and about others aspiring to share Barrosso's European nationality - like, say, The Turks.

God, please send us a Churchill who cares about the British (not military glory) before there are none of us left.

Edited by user 10 December 2012 15:13:11(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Sometimes one cannot help but feel sick....& in the case of the Nobel Bauble the urge to puke is nigh on overwhelming.
Although it was debased decades ago, the Nobel commitee attempts to plumb even deeper, fumicolous depths by ennobling utter trash.
My thoughts are of those real people for whom the prize was intended and how they must feel placed beside some of the most dangerously criminal elements this World has recently produced.
The Nobel Peace Prize has become the badge of ignominy......time that the honest & decent recipients still extant returned their badges of shame to the septic donors.

"There is thus a distinct possibility that the "UKIP effect", combined with the Lib-Dim refusal to agree to new constituency boundaries, will see a narrow Labour win in 2015, and even a Lab-Lib coalition."

if so then do not discount the possibility of the introduction of the Euro and ratification of the new treaty.

as I have said before, it is not beyond the realms of fantasty.



"The article in the Telegraph and the analysis are very illuminating.

I have a good look at his bio and looked at some of his recent speeches:

He seems to come across as a grounded in ‘real’ life man with considerable ‘real’ life experience outside the ‘bubble’.

His views on the EU are more realistic and more cynically honest than most, however given such he MUST know that article 50 is the only way to extricate ourselves both legitimately and with the minimum of disruption. Yet I can see no reference to such anywhere in his speeches articles or quotes!

That the EU is forging ahead with a new treaty has been well covered and apart from EU ref and other blogs who can see the logical consequence of such action (Britain is left on the outside) apart from this article where Owen Patterson acknowledges such there is no meaningful analysis of such in the MSM that I can see.

That Britain will be left ‘out in the cold’ when a new treaty is ratified, is obvious to those of us who follow matters EU. And that such a situation can only strengthen the ‘out’ decision IF a referendum offering such an option were to appear.

However no-one has contemplated the alternative: What if a Parliament ergo an Executive stuffed with Europhiles decided to integrate us further? Firstly by adopting the Euro and then becoming signatories to the new treaty that will emerge.

It is not beyond the realms of fantasy to contemplate such using arguments of being left out, having no say, being powerless to influence and that the EU is our only hope of economic salvation ad nauseum!

I think it is a scenario worthy of contemplation; never underestimate ones opponent, always think of countermoves 3 - 4moves ahead of their own. To dismiss such a move out of hand could be folly."

Here is the latest newsletter I still receive from the Tories about what is going on in Europe

http://www.ashleyfoxmep....r_2012_-_Web_Version.pdf

If I remember correctly you did a piece on broadband to the countryside and the European Commission needing to agree. So even down to deciding that we should be spending taxpayers' money to give broadband to those who choose to live in rurual areas is out of parliament's hands.

Ooohh that's a bit of scary thought for a Tory.He seems intent on giving us just one last option to hang on in there.Does he seriously believe that he will get anything substantial from these "renegotiations" other than more political/economic unification.The EU and the world has moved on,Tory brains have not comprehended this yet....I find the ignorance staggering.

No speech will save the Green Tosser, he is a busted flush many times over.

The tories have one chance left, dump the idle waster now and get a proper tory in, or face wipeout in the next election.

There will be no Lib-Lab coalition, as the Libs won't exist after the next election. Lab will win....and there will be a very large UKIP vote.

Cameron is a stupid man, but is he that stupid or perhaps - is he being set up to fail on the gay marriage thing ?
Or is my devious mind doing overtime?

I thought you said Paterson is rubbish at public speaking and not PM material?

I think another significant small proportion are bent out of shape enough to leave. The majority wonder why he's making so much of a song and dance over this non-issue when there are surely more pressing matters. It's the equivalent of going off to play with his train set.

This small proportion and that small proportion (green energy putting up bills, foreign aid, tackling corruption in Africa, the EU etc, etc) adds up to quite a large small proportion leaving and the majority scratching their heads.

And then there's the much awaited statement on 'Europe' for the slow learners. He's definitely, unequivocably going to lay the cards on the table, well some cards, not necessarily his cards and he didn't necessarily mean the table people assumed he meant.

I wonder if we could see a break away Tory party as the SDLP broke away from the Labour Party?

Edited by user 10 December 2012 19:44:20(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

It hasn't happened in 40 years and the EU and Eurozone are looking like a leaky ship. In 2020 we'll probably see what happened to the PIIGS, and France, and it may not be pretty.

My guess has always been that we will see a Labour or Conservative government forced against its will to get out of the EU, largely by the EU. Nothing so simple as electing a UKIP government.

I'd agree that a Labour government with a working majority was highly likely next GE.