Even with a promise of a referendum Cameron could still lose an election with or without UKIP's vote on his side. Would Labour give the same promise at an election? Would anyone believe any of them after the last promise?

There is another scenario and I don't know if there is a mechanism for it, but what if the the other 26 just voted to throw us out?

How very democratic of him.

I think the second paragraph of the Times piece somewhat rather sets the scene. It says, "In his gamble....", and "... urge the public to support a looser relationship...".

What is it that he is gambling on ? It takes more than an anti-EU platform to win a GE. Could it be that the Tories are having a bit of the behind the scenes power struggle ?

A looser relationship can mean almost anything and nothing at the same time.

Whenever he makes his speech on the EU, he better not leave it as late a March. We all remember what happened to one leader when the daggers were out for him.

Must be lonely at the top ?

Ah, but you are thinking like Niall Warry, who probably never had any time for Cameron anyway and long since abandoned hope in the Conservatives. This is addressed to Tory waverers who would like to believe Cameron had a clue. It's a damage limitation exercise conducted in the expectation that they'll never be called on to deliver, or if they are they can adjust matters. It reminds me of the Cast Iron Promise. It wastes time and avoids a decision.

As for serious analysis, it revolves around the question of how realistic renegotiation is (not as part of the exit process), and a lot of people believe it's possible to go to Mr. EU and say "See here my good man, here's a list of things which we need to come to a right understanding on". If the Johnnie Foreigner comes with the "Me No Speaky English" malarkey, a bat over the bean with Maggie's handbag will clear his head.

The Tory position has always been about maintaining a dishonest position on 'Europe' to string their supporters along, and it's worked well. It's looking a bit frayed, but there's life in the old dog yet.

The Tories actual position I'd guess as remaining in the EU at all costs and have dreams of leading the outer circle.

Seems fairly straightforward.

All major parties, and all media, will campaign on a simple platform:

"Do we want to go forward and upward into economic prosperity and world domination as part of Europe, or do we want to sink into despair and commit suicide by leaving this wondrous organisation which has been responsible for all that is good in the world today?"

No money will be made available for any advertising from any organisation which is not on-message.


P.S - if we leave Europe all parties will promise to triple taxes and close all hospitals...

My view is that Cameron may be a particularly abject specimen, but not of a completely different order to anyone else the Tories were likely to install as leader. The problem is that in the game of bluff they've played for years, they're finally being forced to put their cards on the table and they're going through all sorts of contortions not to. The 'now you see it, now you don't' stuff is deep Tory policy and has been for decades, back to the 50s.

It's also my view of Huhne and Davey. They may be particularly nutty and they do have some influence over policy, but they haven't gone off and done something radical and totally different, to the horror of the rest of the government and Labour, who are powerless to control them. They are carrying out government policy.