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richard
#1 Posted : 02 December 2012 13:57:59(UTC)
Richard

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The Szamuely (pronounced Sam-you-elly) has cogitated on current events and delivered a fine piece on her blog. It is a lot more perceptive, I feel, than some other commentary.

View full article here


and

View full article here

Edited by user 03 December 2012 12:28:24(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

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aster on 02/12/2012(UTC)
aster
#2 Posted : 02 December 2012 14:34:30(UTC)
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Thanks Richard for this link - we were in Rotherham for the by election, and spent a few hours posting leaflets for UKIP.
Most people we spoke to had no intention of voting, and the one who mentioned UKIP observed, with the fingers down the
throat gesture, that the Hamiltons had come to town to support the UKIP candidate.

Jane Collins, the candidate, has been a UKIP regional organiser for 15 years I believe, but there was no sign of any local organisation
or activists and the shop was 'staffed' by a two person (paid?) team who treated us with all the disdain we deserved - just a pair of
mugs daft enough to work for nothing.

Labour had parachuted in their candidate to prevent a takeover by the Mahroof Hussain faction, only the immigrant communities and those
who directly benefit from Labour largesse in the area are interested in party activisim. UKIP has been mealy mouthed about the real problems
being imposed on Rotherham by overwhelming numbers of immigrants - one woman told me that she regards the fostering of Roma children
as a new local industry, and the Roma themselves are worried about this. They talk about their children being sold - they are not far off the
mark if their children are the basis of large incomes for social workers and foster parents.

The main problem is as you say that voters have completely lost faith in the political process as a means of securing anything but jobs and
money for the select few off the back of immigrants. UKIP was making no effort to engage with Rotherham voters "Kick Them In The Ballot
Box" was their slogan - then they get annoyed at being described as merely a collector of protest votes.

Look forward to reading your comments on the Szamuely piece.
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meltemian on 03/12/2012(UTC)
richard
#3 Posted : 02 December 2012 15:20:52(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: aster Go to Quoted Post

Thanks Richard for this link - we were in Rotherham for the by election, and spent a few hours posting leaflets for UKIP.
Most people we spoke to had no intention of voting, and the one who mentioned UKIP observed, with the fingers down the
throat gesture, that the Hamiltons had come to town to support the UKIP candidate.

Jane Collins, the candidate, has been a UKIP regional organiser for 15 years I believe, but there was no sign of any local organisation
or activists and the shop was 'staffed' by a two person (paid?) team who treated us with all the disdain we deserved - just a pair of
mugs daft enough to work for nothing.

Labour had parachuted in their candidate to prevent a takeover by the Mahroof Hussain faction, only the immigrant communities and those
who directly benefit from Labour largesse in the area are interested in party activisim. UKIP has been mealy mouthed about the real problems
being imposed on Rotherham by overwhelming numbers of immigrants - one woman told me that she regards the fostering of Roma children
as a new local industry, and the Roma themselves are worried about this. They talk about their children being sold - they are not far off the
mark if their children are the basis of large incomes for social workers and foster parents.

The main problem is as you say that voters have completely lost faith in the political process as a means of securing anything but jobs and
money for the select few off the back of immigrants. UKIP was making no effort to engage with Rotherham voters "Kick Them In The Ballot
Box" was their slogan - then they get annoyed at being described as merely a collector of protest votes.

Look forward to reading your comments on the Szamuely piece.


Welcome to the forum and thank you very much for the very informative piece.

Over the years, I have done a lot of work in Rotherham and was very good friends with a number of local authority officials. The changes over the last decade have made the area unrecognisable, and the city centre, with its huge immigrant influx, has given it a totally different "feel".

There are special factors in South Yorkshire, though, and enough of that remains to make a difference. The natives are really clannish and massively distrust outsiders - and especially local outsiders. You would be better off coming from London, than from Sheffield, for instance. Using Jane Collins (east Riding) was probably a mistake. Short of having a local (i.e., Rotherham-born) candidate, UKIP would have been better off getting someone from outside Yorkshire - the further away the better ... hence the earlier success of MacShane.

What you have described, though. is typical UKIP. They have never sought to nurse a constituency, putting in a long-standing local candidate, and building up a presence over time with the resources needed. That's how the Greens got Caroline Lucas into Brighton - and they borrowed from the Liberal electoral manual. Everything in UKIP is at the last minute. The lack of local understanding and an ignorance of the issues is typical of the beast. Add that to Farage's lack of tactical acumen (going for the social workers instead of the immigrants) and it was inevitable that UKIP were not going to make any real progress. They only have themselves to blame.

Edited by user 02 December 2012 15:21:32(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

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aster on 02/12/2012(UTC)
comet
#4 Posted : 02 December 2012 16:08:32(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: richard Go to Quoted Post

What you have described, though. is typical UKIP. They have never sought to nurse a constituency, putting in a long-standing local candidate, and building up a presence over time with the resources needed. That's how the Greens got Caroline Lucas into Brighton - and they borrowed from the Liberal electoral manual. Everything in UKIP is at the last minute. The lack of local understanding and an ignorance of the issues is typical of the beast. Add that to Farage's lack of tactical acumen (going for the social workers instead of the immigrants) and it was inevitable that UKIP were not going to make any real progress. They only have themselves to blame.


Last GE the UKIP candidate in my constituency wasn't announced until the last minute. I was beginning to doubt there would be one. The electorally credible alternatives were a Lib Dem, who increased his majority, and a Conservative. Labour retained their deposit, just. The LibDem is a nice bloke and an active constituency MP. I think a lot of people are influenced by the niceness of the bloke and he's has a long time to establish his niceness. The LibDems have a good local organisation. I can't stand anything they do, such as triumphantly announcing the installation of speed cameras, but there's no denying they are active.

TheBoilingFrog
#5 Posted : 02 December 2012 16:44:25(UTC)
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Quote:
What you have described, though. is typical UKIP. They have never sought to nurse a constituency, putting in a long-standing local candidate, and building up a presence over time with the resources needed. That's how the Greens got Caroline Lucas into Brighton - and they borrowed from the Liberal electoral manual. Everything in UKIP is at the last minute. The lack of local understanding and an ignorance of the issues is typical of the beast.


The irony is that the election manual(s) produced and used internally by the Lib Dems on how to win locally is actually in the hands of a few in Ukip - obtained by means that it's best not to ask - but clearly they choose to ignore the advice and tactics contained within.
Ravenscar
#6 Posted : 02 December 2012 17:30:12(UTC)
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The Szamuely (pronounced Sam-you-elly)


Repeat after me Sam-you-elly,



duh.
James102
#7 Posted : 02 December 2012 17:39:36(UTC)
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It seems to me to be perfectly rational for BNP supporters to change to Ukip or any nationalist party. Most will not have read their manifestos and are just interested in immigration and multiculturalism.
There is an organised anti-BNP movement from Searchlight through the Anti Nazi League to the National Union of Journalists’ guidelines on the party.
It is only a couple of years’ ago that their membership list was leaked and members’ livelihoods threatened. I recall a radio DJ in London actually suggested on air that dog excreta be put though their letterboxes!
It will be more difficult to orchestrate such a campaign against Ukip so it makes sense to move allegiance.
The Euro story is only at the beginning and has the potential to destabilise the EU project further which will give another boost to Ukip in the UK.

The postal voting system is also something the Labour party seems to have perfected in places where they think there is a risk of a “Fringe” party gaining a hold. Does anyone know the proportion of postal votes in Rotherham?

Edited by user 02 December 2012 17:57:27(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Ravenscar
#8 Posted : 02 December 2012 18:17:44(UTC)
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On Peter Hitchens piece:-

Quote:
They have realised Mr Slippery’s Party has decayed so much that the best place for it is the nearest skip. No amount of paint, glue, sparkle or varnish will ever make it look good again.


I think that is a good reflection - on the current state of the Tories.





Quote:
Tory insiders know this too. They know that the true party membership is falling faster than Jimmy Savile’s reputation, that without cheques from dodgy millionaires it would long ago have gone into receivership.

On top of that it has come to stand, in many people’s minds, for concreting over the countryside, unrestrained mass immigration, terrible state schools, being nice to criminals, starting foreign wars in places where we have no business to be, and high taxes.

Of course, there are people who think all these things are wonderful. But they already have two political parties on their side, and so there’s no earthly point in them voting Tory.

This is what comes of punishing your friends and rewarding your enemies, year after year after year



A bit over the top [wow what a hypocrite I amBlushing ] but a kernel of truth there as well. On the final sentence, I have asked myself the same - why does Dave continue to lavish extravagant favour upon Labour placemen and women, in keeping quango-queens, granting new and vastly overpaid p*88ball easy sinecures to Labour-ites? These people, he knows will spit in his face rather than reciprocate in kind. Dave is a Socialist fifth columnist in the Tory party - trouble is they can't see it, most of the executive have been champagne Socialists all of their lives and the Whig grandees are all statist fat pigs, just look at Ken, Bummer, Yeo, Patten and Tarzan.


But indeed, the Tory party is dying and is it not about time that they and the Marxist nutters in the Nu Scum party were buried with the Dhimmi party - I wish.


On UKIP, is still not at the races, with Nige's drinking club on top, it will always be so. Even though, I will vote UKIP [what other choice is there?] - UKIP desperately need some sort of leadership coup and a re-organisation but it will not happen, so the votes will be wasted and the only happy people will be in Brussels and the mainstream Westminster claque - as Niall has said - a place to park the EU protest vote.

The Westminster bloc [lab/Con] can go on and on - with falling turnouts, look in the north at Middlesborough, Rotherham and Manchester - Labour will win in the north and inner cities, the Tories will win in the south and the shires and the UK elective dictatorship hand in glove with the EU gravy train glides on.

Edited by user 02 December 2012 18:20:21(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

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aster on 02/12/2012(UTC)
James102
#9 Posted : 02 December 2012 18:35:17(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Ravenscar Go to Quoted Post


- UKIP desperately need some sort of leadership coup and a re-organisation but it will not happen, so the votes will be wasted and the only happy people will be in Brussels and the mainstream Westminster claque - as Niall has said - a place to park the EU protest vote.
.



But fragmentation is the biggest risk for new parties.----the Rotherham Revolutiony Front at the throats of the Revolutionary Front of Rotherham. That would please the Federalists even more.
There are so many problems heading our way and our political class are so poor major political change is virtually certain. Whether we will like it or not is another question.

mel randall
#10 Posted : 02 December 2012 18:42:22(UTC)
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Everyone seems to be missing the point with UKIP. They are now classed as a mainstream party and coming close to being the 3rd main party when the Libdems finally turn over and expire. In the last 20 years, and more so now, you have to give them the respect deserved of a party with very limited funds unlike the main 3 plus the greens which have a vast amount of funds given to them from various sources. There are no real career politicians in UKIP unlike the others and the majority of UKIP members are working class or are small business people who believe in making the UK a decent place to live. I have been reading this blog for years and have recommended it to many but I am starting to despair of the direction you appear to going of lately Richard.
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Flashman on 02/12/2012(UTC)
James102
#11 Posted : 02 December 2012 19:13:13(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: mel randall Go to Quoted Post
Everyone seems to be missing the point with UKIP. They are now classed as a mainstream party and coming close to being the 3rd main party when the Libdems finally turn over and expire. In the last 20 years, and more so now, you have to give them the respect deserved of a party with very limited funds unlike the main 3 plus the greens which have a vast amount of funds given to them from various sources. There are no real career politicians in UKIP unlike the others and the majority of UKIP members are working class or are small business people who believe in making the UK a decent place to live. I have been reading this blog for years and have recommended it to many but I am starting to despair of the direction you appear to going of lately Richard.



Very fair points.

James102
#12 Posted : 02 December 2012 19:20:11(UTC)
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Some interesting polling results from:
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/
YouGov: CON 31%, LAB 44%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 10%.
Opinium: CON 29%(-3), LAB 38%(-1), LDEM 9%(+1), UKIP 13(+3).
richard
#13 Posted : 02 December 2012 19:38:09(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: James102 Go to Quoted Post
Some interesting polling results from:
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/
YouGov: CON 31%, LAB 44%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 10%.
Opinium: CON 29%(-3), LAB 38%(-1), LDEM 9%(+1), UKIP 13(+3).


They do not seem to be reading UKIP correctly. Real polls give them 2.9 percent over time.
aster
#14 Posted : 02 December 2012 19:42:43(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: James102 Go to Quoted Post
It seems to me to be perfectly rational for BNP supporters to change to Ukip or any nationalist party. Most will not have read their manifestos and are just interested in immigration and multiculturalism.
There is an organised anti-BNP movement from Searchlight through the Anti Nazi League to the National Union of Journalists’ guidelines on the party.
It is only a couple of years’ ago that their membership list was leaked and members’ livelihoods threatened. I recall a radio DJ in London actually suggested on air that dog excreta be put though their letterboxes!
It will be more difficult to orchestrate such a campaign against Ukip so it makes sense to move allegiance.
The Euro story is only at the beginning and has the potential to destabilise the EU project further which will give another boost to Ukip in the UK.

The postal voting system is also something the Labour party seems to have perfected in places where they think there is a risk of a “Fringe” party gaining a hold. Does anyone know the proportion of postal votes in Rotherham?


I can't give you the source James, but following the counting on the night, I understood that Labour received 4000 (yes, I know) postal votes, that the
postal votes outcome was given whilst the count frpm the polling stations was underway, and that at this point (having been told how many postal votes Labour had secured) Nigel Farage conceded defeat.
One of the sites I was checking which was updating live on the night was rotherhampolitics.wordpress.com and another was a Labour party site.

I see that John Ward has just put up a post on postal vote fraud at Rotherham, but no details there. hat4uk.wordpress.com/tag/postal-vote-fraud-in-rotherham/
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James102 on 02/12/2012(UTC)
richard
#15 Posted : 02 December 2012 19:48:45(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: James102 Go to Quoted Post
Originally Posted by: mel randall Go to Quoted Post
Everyone seems to be missing the point with UKIP. They are now classed as a mainstream party and coming close to being the 3rd main party when the Libdems finally turn over and expire. In the last 20 years, and more so now, you have to give them the respect deserved of a party with very limited funds unlike the main 3 plus the greens which have a vast amount of funds given to them from various sources. There are no real career politicians in UKIP unlike the others and the majority of UKIP members are working class or are small business people who believe in making the UK a decent place to live. I have been reading this blog for years and have recommended it to many but I am starting to despair of the direction you appear to going of lately Richard.



Very fair points.




Limited funds? All parties have limited funds, although UKIP is relatively impoverished compared with the rest. But it has nevertheless spent millions without achieving a Westminster seat.

As regards the attitude of this blog, I am passionate about leaving the EU and thus assess UKIP within that context. The test is of "balance of utility" - whether the harm is does outweighs the good it is doing. On balance, with its flawed exit strategy, and inability to develop electorally, I see it doing more harm than good. Generally, I have a go at all political parties, but mainly the Conservatives. I don't see why UKIP should be exempt from criticism though especially if it is doing a crap job. The obvious intent is that it might learn from the criticism and improve its performance. That is where the focus needs to be - anything else smacks of attacking the messenger.



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Ravenscar on 02/12/2012(UTC)
TheBoilingFrog
#16 Posted : 02 December 2012 19:49:32(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: aster Go to Quoted Post
Originally Posted by: James102 Go to Quoted Post
It seems to me to be perfectly rational for BNP supporters to change to Ukip or any nationalist party. Most will not have read their manifestos and are just interested in immigration and multiculturalism.
There is an organised anti-BNP movement from Searchlight through the Anti Nazi League to the National Union of Journalists’ guidelines on the party.
It is only a couple of years’ ago that their membership list was leaked and members’ livelihoods threatened. I recall a radio DJ in London actually suggested on air that dog excreta be put though their letterboxes!
It will be more difficult to orchestrate such a campaign against Ukip so it makes sense to move allegiance.
The Euro story is only at the beginning and has the potential to destabilise the EU project further which will give another boost to Ukip in the UK.

The postal voting system is also something the Labour party seems to have perfected in places where they think there is a risk of a “Fringe” party gaining a hold. Does anyone know the proportion of postal votes in Rotherham?


I can't give you the source James, but following the counting on the night, I understood that Labour received 4000 (yes, I know) postal votes, that the
postal votes outcome was given whilst the count frpm the polling stations was underway, and that at this point (having been told how many postal votes Labour had secured) Nigel Farage conceded defeat.
One of the sites I was checking which was updating live on the night was rotherhampolitics.wordpress.com and another was a Labour party site.

I see that John Ward has just put up a post on postal vote fraud at Rotherham, but no details there. hat4uk.wordpress.com/tag/postal-vote-fraud-in-rotherham/



John Ward rarely does give details. He's made an educated guess and filled it out with 'someone told me' to make up a blog piece. We can all do that... and probably wouldn't be far wrong.
comet
#17 Posted : 02 December 2012 20:00:28(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: mel randall Go to Quoted Post
Everyone seems to be missing the point with UKIP. They are now classed as a mainstream party and coming close to being the 3rd main party when the Libdems finally turn over and expire. In the last 20 years, and more so now, you have to give them the respect deserved of a party with very limited funds unlike the main 3 plus the greens which have a vast amount of funds given to them from various sources. There are no real career politicians in UKIP unlike the others and the majority of UKIP members are working class or are small business people who believe in making the UK a decent place to live. I have been reading this blog for years and have recommended it to many but I am starting to despair of the direction you appear to going of lately Richard.



I think most people on here want to see UKIP succeed, because there really isn't any alternative via the electoral process.

It has definite faults in its approach and strategy and it is possible to criticise it. Wanting it to succeed doesn't mean taking everything at face value and worse, reading things into it which aren't there.

For instance, 'classed as mainstream' can vanish like the morning mist. How can it be the 3rd main party and have no MPs, as seems very likely next GE? No Westminster representation means limited influence and voice. Share of the overall vote and opinion poll rating doesn't count for that much on its own. Damaging the Conservative Party by denying them seats, doesn't really count for that much as it's pretty clear they are not going to alter their pro-EU position whatever. MEPs can't really do anything.

The LibDems have a number of strongholds which it would take a huge upset to remove them from. The Liberal Party carried on for years with a few seats, Orkney and Shetland, Colne Valley.
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Ravenscar on 02/12/2012(UTC)
James102
#18 Posted : 02 December 2012 20:04:42(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: richard Go to Quoted Post
Originally Posted by: James102 Go to Quoted Post
Some interesting polling results from:
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/
YouGov: CON 31%, LAB 44%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 10%.
Opinium: CON 29%(-3), LAB 38%(-1), LDEM 9%(+1), UKIP 13(+3).


They do not seem to be reading UKIP correctly. Real polls give them 2.9 percent over time.



What is your view on the reasons online polls show better results for Ukip than telephone polls? It seems to go against the stereotype of Ukip supporters.
James102
#19 Posted : 02 December 2012 20:07:51(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: comet Go to Quoted Post
. How can it be the 3rd main party and have no MPs, as seems very likely next GE? No Westminster representation means limited influence and voice. Share of the overall vote and opinion poll rating doesn't count for that much on its own. Damaging the Conservative Party by denying them seats, doesn't really count for that much as it's pretty clear they are not going to alter their pro-EU position whatever. MEPs can't really do anything.





Our political class view politics as marketing and parties as brands.Ukip voters are potential customers so that is how they will be treated.
mmatis
#20 Posted : 02 December 2012 20:26:16(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: James102 Go to Quoted Post
Originally Posted by: comet Go to Quoted Post
. How can it be the 3rd main party and have no MPs, as seems very likely next GE? No Westminster representation means limited influence and voice. Share of the overall vote and opinion poll rating doesn't count for that much on its own. Damaging the Conservative Party by denying them seats, doesn't really count for that much as it's pretty clear they are not going to alter their pro-EU position whatever. MEPs can't really do anything.





Our political class view politics as marketing and parties as brands.Ukip voters are potential customers so that is how they will be treated.


And the Media still understand how to do Brand Management, to a certain extent. Or do they not revile BNP and UKIP every chance they get?

Of course, just what good does Westminster representation do, as long as y'all maintain your status as regards the EU and its foibles and fantasies? Short of gaining hold of the government, what could MPs of EITHER party credibly do? Even if they DID develop a sudden penchant for Article 50...
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