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Booker: leave the EU to deal
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"Flimflam" is what Booker is calling the arguments in Brussels about our contribution to the EU budget. They are just a sideshow. But, when you think of it, as Booker says, it is difficult to get too worked up about our net contribution of £8.8 billion a year to the EU budget when last month alone the Government had to borrow another £8.6 billion just to cover its ever-growing deficit. That aside, the real game in town is the curious new consensus emerging across our political class that, while of course we can't leave the EU, we must "renegotiate" our relationship with it. From David Cameron to Ed Miliband, from the "eurosceptics" of Open Europe to the europhiles of the European Movement, the self-same cry goes up. View full article here
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Left a comment which apparently needs to be moderated.
Oops did I say something wrong?
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I made the mistake of reading the comments. Oh dear. It doesn't matter how many times you tell them in practical terms how the EU does and doesn't work, some (or a lot) still cling onto their little myths.
I note we got the November 2014 'we can never leave' bollocks again
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Originally Posted by: Dave Evans  Left a comment which apparently needs to be moderated.
Oops did I say something wrong? Nuffink to do wiv me guv ... I never touched it!
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Originally Posted by: TheBoilingFrog  I made the mistake of reading the comments. Oh dear. It doesn't matter how many times you tell them in practical terms how the EU does and doesn't work, some (or a lot) still cling onto their little myths.
I note we got the November 2014 'we can never leave' bollocks again It is interesting how it brings out all the "dog-whistle" eurosceptics, and especially Torqil Erikson. It is a pity that these people don't realise the damage they do.
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Booker is right in that the sums of money, the contribution to the EU and the servicing of the deficit are so close it makes no sense to argue about it. Unless that is you can, on behalf of the 'out' campaign, offer some ideas on how to deal with the deficit.
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Originally Posted by: In2minds  Booker is right in that the sums of money, the contribution to the EU and the servicing of the deficit are so close it makes no sense to argue about it. Unless that is you can, on behalf of the 'out' campaign, offer some ideas on how to deal with the deficit.
I think the point Booker was making was that we have had to borrow in one month what we have had to pay in one year to the EU. A huge fuss is made about our EU subscription, but it is tiny in relation to our other obligations.
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I am not an expert on the Lisbon Treaty, but I feel that an Art. 50 exit might be almost impossible. My reading is that following an announcement of the intention of the UK to exit the EU, negotiations will follow, but any final agreement is subject to prior consent by both the European Parliament (Art. 218(3), note iv), and then the Council (from which the UK would be excluded) by majority voting (based on Art. 238(3)(b)). It seems to me that an agreement would be very difficult to achieve on this basis, given that the great majority of the EU Parliament members and Council members would be opposed to a UK withdrawal. I am sceptical that an Art. 50 agreement would be possible (they want our money). I would welcome comment on this.
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Originally Posted by: MartinW  I am not an expert on the Lisbon Treaty, but I feel that an Art. 50 exit might be almost impossible. My reading is that following an announcement of the intention of the UK to exit the EU, negotiations will follow, but any final agreement is subject to prior consent by both the European Parliament (Art. 218(3), note iv), and then the Council (from which the UK would be excluded) by majority voting (based on Art. 238(3)(b)). It seems to me that an agreement would be very difficult to achieve on this basis, given that the great majority of the EU Parliament members and Council members would be opposed to a UK withdrawal. I am sceptical that an Art. 50 agreement would be possible (they want our money). I would welcome comment on this. I wrote on this in July http://thefrogsalittleho...7/november-2014-end.htmlBasically if there's no agreement then we're out by default, under Article 50 (3) (My bold) Quote:3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period. Edited by user 25 November 2012 12:58:38(UTC)
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What a shame that a single blog by yourself Richard is worth reading more than the entire Daily Telegraph with the exception of the Booker column. But then that is why I am a regular reader of yours and have been so for around 7 years.
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Originally Posted by: TheBoilingFrog  Originally Posted by: MartinW  I am not an expert on the Lisbon Treaty, but I feel that an Art. 50 exit might be almost impossible. My reading is that following an announcement of the intention of the UK to exit the EU, negotiations will follow, but any final agreement is subject to prior consent by both the European Parliament (Art. 218(3), note iv), and then the Council (from which the UK would be excluded) by majority voting (based on Art. 238(3)(b)). It seems to me that an agreement would be very difficult to achieve on this basis, given that the great majority of the EU Parliament members and Council members would be opposed to a UK withdrawal. I am sceptical that an Art. 50 agreement would be possible (they want our money). I would welcome comment on this. I wrote on this in July http://thefrogsalittleho...7/november-2014-end.htmlBasically if there's no agreement then we're out by default, under Article 50 (3) (My bold) Quote:3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period. Absolutely ... with the moral high ground going to the UK. However, under the "North plan", we offer what amounts to deal which creates a relationship very similar to current membership terms, which the EU would find it difficult to reject, and would look absurd if it tried to.
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Originally Posted by: stuart  What a shame that a single blog by yourself Richard is worth reading more than the entire Daily Telegraph with the exception of the Booker column. But then that is why I am a regular reader of yours and have been so for around 7 years.  It's the quality of readership that counts, not the volume. But we still get about 3,000 unique visitors a day, which is not too bad for a blog. However, it cannot be said that the forum, as a platform for debate, has been a success. We have some ideas on that, possibly migrating comment to Facebook. Peter and I are thinking about this and we may come up with something over Christmas.
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Originally Posted by: richard  Originally Posted by: TheBoilingFrog  Originally Posted by: MartinW  I am not an expert on the Lisbon Treaty, but I feel that an Art. 50 exit might be almost impossible. My reading is that following an announcement of the intention of the UK to exit the EU, negotiations will follow, but any final agreement is subject to prior consent by both the European Parliament (Art. 218(3), note iv), and then the Council (from which the UK would be excluded) by majority voting (based on Art. 238(3)(b)). It seems to me that an agreement would be very difficult to achieve on this basis, given that the great majority of the EU Parliament members and Council members would be opposed to a UK withdrawal. I am sceptical that an Art. 50 agreement would be possible (they want our money). I would welcome comment on this. I wrote on this in July http://thefrogsalittleho...7/november-2014-end.htmlBasically if there's no agreement then we're out by default, under Article 50 (3) (My bold) Quote:3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period. Absolutely ... with the moral high ground going to the UK. However, under the "North plan", we offer what amounts to deal which creates a relationship very similar to current membership terms, which the EU would find it difficult to reject, and would look absurd if it tried to. MartinW asks a question which echo's my own thoughts. I would like to know, 'moral highground' and 'absurdities' apart (IMHO most of which emanates from the EU is absurd); could they theoretically just tell us to begger off with nothing? Edited by user 25 November 2012 14:02:01(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: nemesis  MartinW asks a question which echo's my own thoughts. I would like to know, 'moral highground' and 'absurdities' apart (IMHO most of which emanates from the EU is absurd); could they theoretically just tell us to begger off with nothing? Yes, but it would hardly be in their interests to do so.
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Originally Posted by: TheBoilingFrog  Originally Posted by: MartinW  I am not an expert on the Lisbon Treaty, but I feel that an Art. 50 exit might be almost impossible. My reading is that following an announcement of the intention of the UK to exit the EU, negotiations will follow, but any final agreement is subject to prior consent by both the European Parliament (Art. 218(3), note iv), and then the Council (from which the UK would be excluded) by majority voting (based on Art. 238(3)(b)). It seems to me that an agreement would be very difficult to achieve on this basis, given that the great majority of the EU Parliament members and Council members would be opposed to a UK withdrawal. I am sceptical that an Art. 50 agreement would be possible (they want our money). I would welcome comment on this. I wrote on this in July http://thefrogsalittleho...7/november-2014-end.htmlBasically if there's no agreement then we're out by default, under Article 50 (3) (My bold) Quote:3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.
Many thanks for your clarification. I see we would indeed be out by default. Note to me: read Boiling Frog blog more regularly in future!
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Originally Posted by: richard  Originally Posted by: nemesis  MartinW asks a question which echo's my own thoughts. I would like to know, 'moral highground' and 'absurdities' apart (IMHO most of which emanates from the EU is absurd); could they theoretically just tell us to begger off with nothing? Yes, but it would hardly be in their interests to do so. I have decided after a long time of reading to add my two penn'orth. Previously posted elsewhere. "The whole issue of the eu and our compliance with it seem to me to fly in the face of logic and common sense, why would any sentient entity spend variously cited at between 100 and 300 billion in compliance to achieve 90 billion in trade and losing the right to self determination on the way. It doesn't add up does it. We don't need to be in the eu to trade with it especially as we have a large trade deficit with it." I find it mildly irritating that the eu contribution is always cited, most people don't see beyond this, it's small change in comparison to the compliance and implementation costs. Without invoking article 50 there will be no meaningful renegotiation whatsoever. The movers and shakers are aware of this but hide behind headlining that they are standing up for the British people. Sadly, I'm having to wake up to the Myrtle concept. My escape plan would, broadly, be invoke article 50, maintain the "net" contribution for the duration of disengagement followed by an incremental year on year reduction. The greatest danger I see is a spite reaction that on previous observation they seem quite capable of.
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The dangers I see with the article 50 route are that it would take sustained political will, and the people almost inevitably doing the negotiating couldn't be trusted not to derail it.
The spite reaction? I suspect the EU would have other things on its plate, there are factions within it anyway, and a UK withdrawal would tend to destabilise and weaken the whole thing; it's already looking shaky,
The dangers with the "And with one bound they were free!" approach are greater.
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Originally Posted by: flyinthesky  Originally Posted by: richard  Originally Posted by: nemesis  MartinW asks a question which echo's my own thoughts. I would like to know, 'moral highground' and 'absurdities' apart (IMHO most of which emanates from the EU is absurd); could they theoretically just tell us to begger off with nothing? Yes, but it would hardly be in their interests to do so. I have decided after a long time of reading to add my two penn'orth. Previously posted elsewhere. "The whole issue of the eu and our compliance with it seem to me to fly in the face of logic and common sense, why would any sentient entity spend variously cited at between 100 and 300 billion in compliance to achieve 90 billion in trade and losing the right to self determination on the way. It doesn't add up does it. We don't need to be in the eu to trade with it especially as we have a large trade deficit with it." I find it mildly irritating that the eu contribution is always cited, most people don't see beyond this, it's small change in comparison to the compliance and implementation costs. Without invoking article 50 there will be no meaningful renegotiation whatsoever. The movers and shakers are aware of this but hide behind headlining that they are standing up for the British people. Sadly, I'm having to wake up to the Myrtle concept. My escape plan would, broadly, be invoke article 50, maintain the "net" contribution for the duration of disengagement followed by an incremental year on year reduction. The greatest danger I see is a spite reaction that on previous observation they seem quite capable of. Welcome to the forum. I like the idea of maintaining the net contribution ... thus repatriating the balance, spending it in the same areas until such time as we develop new policies. That would particularly apply to the regional policy and the CAP, and help enormously in bringing farmers on-side. If they were offered, for instance, a ten-year guarantee of system continuity, with a gradual phase-out to a new system, that would neutralise objections from an important and relatively powerful group.
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All sorts of vomitworthy things would need to be done to grease the wheels, like guaranteeing EU pensions.
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Originally Posted by: comet  All sorts of vomitworthy things would need to be done to grease the wheels, like guaranteeing EU pensions. Call it the price of freedom.
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