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richard
#1 Posted : 18 November 2012 16:22:38(UTC)
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The Observer publishes a poll today on the EU, finding that 56 percent of respondents would "definitely" or "probably" vote to leave the EU in an election, compared with 30 percent who might vote to remain.

As an adjusted figure, removing the "don't knows" from the equation, that gives us a 65-35 percent split, giving the outers a 30 percent majority. That is slightly better than the last poll which gave us a 63-37 percent split and, while it is interesting, it is probably not yet sufficient to guarantee a win, should we be given an "on-out" choice. A margin of about 35 percent is probably the safe minimum.

Even them the figure is probably very soft, as the bulk of the vote comes from the Conservatives, who split 68-24 percent in favour of leaving. Given an "renegotiation" option, this cohort would probably vote tribally, and given a Conservative government support for renegotiation, we could see the "out" vote collapse.

View full article here

Ravenscar
#2 Posted : 18 November 2012 17:27:46(UTC)
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Excellent Richard.

I cannot fault the logic of this post. In effect, invoking Article 50 means we leave but not with immediate effect - and until we have sundered the umbilical cleanly and with surgical precision - a two year window will thus ease in the appropriate measures and leading to a satisfyingly total severance from the diseased host - the EU.

UKIP's nonsense and flannel - prevaricating over some type of a referendum is too little too late: we need to commence the withdrawal from the European slave Empire of economic lunacy and ASAP.
richard
#3 Posted : 18 November 2012 20:35:46(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Ravenscar Go to Quoted Post
Excellent Richard.

I cannot fault the logic of this post. In effect, invoking Article 50 means we leave but not with immediate effect - and until we have sundered the umbilical cleanly and with surgical precision - a two year window will thus ease in the appropriate measures and leading to a satisfyingly total severance from the diseased host - the EU.

UKIP's nonsense and flannel - prevaricating over some type of a referendum is too little too late: we need to commence the withdrawal from the European slave Empire of economic lunacy and ASAP.




Not least of our problems is that many of the necessary international agreements, some of which pre-date the EU, have been absorbed into the EU. We need to renegotiate hundreds of these treaties and agreements. This will take time and pressure to complete gives the EU the whip hand. In many instances, a slow deal is a better deal .. especially if the only way we get a deal is softly-softly.

thejones
#4 Posted : 18 November 2012 21:49:04(UTC)
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Quote:
But, he says, "It is now up to me and the other 40 police and crime commissioners elected today to establish themselves and legitimise this post by listening to everyone who relies on their local police force".



Apologies for being somewhat pedantic here but wasn't the election meant to 'legitimise' matters?

If not then why hold them?.

To show democratic form only in my view....
richard
#5 Posted : 18 November 2012 23:10:45(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: thejones Go to Quoted Post
Quote:
But, he says, "It is now up to me and the other 40 police and crime commissioners elected today to establish themselves and legitimise this post by listening to everyone who relies on their local police force".



Apologies for being somewhat pedantic here but wasn't the election meant to 'legitimise' matters?

If not then why hold them?.

To show democratic form only in my view....




Yes ... but they didn't say which election. Now it will be the next election.

In2minds
#6 Posted : 19 November 2012 00:22:53(UTC)
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Quote:
Britain's mass car industry would head to low-cost countries that have remained in the EU



I wonder if they would? The car industry in the UK is always portrayed in a way that obscures its true size, tourism contributes far more, about five times more, in GDP that car manufacturing. But then I suppose it's how you measure these things!

So yes these car based jobs are important but let's also wonder why the manufacturers came to the UK in the first place. It has to be because the skills are here. Even the Mercedes Formula 1 team are UK based and I don't think they would take off to lo-cost Bulgaria if the UK left the EU!

Another reason to stay is that the emerging markets for many manufacturers are Russia and China, so what's that to do with the EU? Anyway the owners of Jaguar-LandRover are an Indian company who are not daft and see that selling a high cost car into these markets made in the UK is not a disadvantage.

Also the manufacturers who came to the UK did so years ago knowing full well that the UK was the most eurosceptic country of the EU and unlikely to join the euro. It did not put them off and could have even been factored into their plan as an advantage as it hedged their bets. Seeing how the euro is getting on right now you may think they got that right.

So finally I say that a plan, like the Harrogate Agenda, that improves the opportunity of the UK to be independent and to set the optimum conditions for manufacturing in the UK rather than simply comply with an EU wish-list is going to increase its attraction to outside investors.
Flashman
#7 Posted : 19 November 2012 00:51:40(UTC)
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After 40 years of membership just 11% say they would definitely vote to stay. And these are f****ers who run our lives? Cursing



Watchet
#8 Posted : 19 November 2012 08:05:25(UTC)
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Inch by inch we creep closer to a UKExit! Although it seems to be a snail's pace the direction is clearer now. This is even if the political elite pulls a distraction by offering an initial in/in referendum - including approving/disapproving negotiations for the repatriation of a number of the UK's former powers, which would be followed up by a confirming or rejecting referendum. But the EU is almost certain to reject any major repatriations, while perhaps granting a few minor items as tokens. Then the natural choice will be 'No' & UKExit!

Both Cameron & Miliband know this well enough, & that's why they are so hesitant to commit themselves to an EU referendum. Even so, slowly but surely we are getting towards the moment of truth. Cameron cannot stop it, & gets weaker by the day.

Watchet
richard
#9 Posted : 19 November 2012 09:36:23(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Watchet Go to Quoted Post
Inch by inch we creep closer to a UKExit! Although it seems to be a snail's pace the direction is clearer now. This is even if the political elite pulls a distraction by offering an initial in/in referendum - including approving/disapproving negotiations for the repatriation of a number of the UK's former powers, which would be followed up by a confirming or rejecting referendum. But the EU is almost certain to reject any major repatriations, while perhaps granting a few minor items as tokens. Then the natural choice will be 'No' & UKExit!

Both Cameron & Miliband know this well enough, & that's why they are so hesitant to commit themselves to an EU referendum. Even so, slowly but surely we are getting towards the moment of truth. Cameron cannot stop it, & gets weaker by the day.

Watchet




What is so terribly amusing is that the "colleagues" seem to have lost interest in UK membership. The more that nice Mr Cameron squirms, the more they edge him towards the exit.

tomrat247
#10 Posted : 19 November 2012 10:48:32(UTC)
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Do we really want to be telling people about Harrogate Agenda strategy? Wont they more likely exclude us from any movements in the near future if so?
TheBoilingFrog
#11 Posted : 19 November 2012 11:06:14(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: richard Go to Quoted Post
Originally Posted by: Watchet Go to Quoted Post
Inch by inch we creep closer to a UKExit! Although it seems to be a snail's pace the direction is clearer now. This is even if the political elite pulls a distraction by offering an initial in/in referendum - including approving/disapproving negotiations for the repatriation of a number of the UK's former powers, which would be followed up by a confirming or rejecting referendum. But the EU is almost certain to reject any major repatriations, while perhaps granting a few minor items as tokens. Then the natural choice will be 'No' & UKExit!

Both Cameron & Miliband know this well enough, & that's why they are so hesitant to commit themselves to an EU referendum. Even so, slowly but surely we are getting towards the moment of truth. Cameron cannot stop it, & gets weaker by the day.

Watchet




What is so terribly amusing is that the "colleagues" seem to have lost interest in UK membership. The more that nice Mr Cameron squirms, the more they edge him towards the exit.



So we could be in a situation where the British people want to leave, the EU says "In the name of God, go!" isolating our establishment which is left desperately trying to cling onto membership at all costs and trying to justify it. Marvellous. Couldn't happen to a nicer bunch...
richard
#12 Posted : 19 November 2012 12:31:02(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: tomrat247 Go to Quoted Post
Do we really want to be telling people about Harrogate Agenda strategy? Wont they more likely exclude us from any movements in the near future if so?




There will be a lot of "under the horizon" stuff ... but since, as a matter of strategy, I think we should not go out of our way to attract legacy media attention, we can be well assured that the chatterati will remain in ignorance of us. The broader point though, is that we have the winning ideas ... other movements will eventually join with us ... or their supporters will and they will disappear. We are the Borg of politics ... resistance is futile!

Edited by user 19 November 2012 14:47:17(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

tomrat247
#13 Posted : 19 November 2012 12:49:33(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: richard Go to Quoted Post
Originally Posted by: tomrat247 Go to Quoted Post
Do we really want to be telling people about Harrogate Agenda strategy? Wont they more likely exclude us from any movements in the near future if so?




There will be a lot of "under the horizon" stuff ... but since, as a matter of strategy, I think we should not go out of our way to attract legacy media attention, we can be well assured that the chatterati will remain in ignorance of us. The broader point though, is that we have the winning ideas ... other movements will eventually join with us ... or their supporters will and they will disappear. We are the Borg of politics ... resistance is futile!



As our canadian friend put it - Amen Brother!

Edited by user 19 November 2012 14:46:57(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

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