EU Referendum

Conservative Party: political suicide


Apologies for the paucity of posts. I have been in the capital, in part attempting to assess the political mood on the European Union. But it is very difficult to get anyone to focus on this matter at all. Completely dominating discussion is speculation over why David Cameron is intent on committing political suicide over the "gay marriage" issue.

When even the loss-making Guardian is taking the mick, you know something is seriously amiss, and there are no end of theories as to why Cameron has chosen this disastrous course.

No one can tell at this stage whether the damage will be long-lasting, but it is increasingly evident that it is severe. Some think that it will be so serious that not even a good speech on "Europe" will be sufficient to repair it. For many, it is seen as the last straw.

However, there is also little expectation that Cameron can pull off a sensible plan to deal with the EU question. Confidence in him is draining away and increasing number of MPs are now convinced that the Conservative Party is headed for electoral defeat.

There is, of course, a long time between then and now, but there is also the feeling that this administration has gone through the "switch". Before this, nothing seems permanently to cause damage – afterwards, nothing seems to go right and the damage is irreparable.

Usually, one can only tell this in retrospect, and there is always plenty of opportunity for Miliband to self-destruct. But, all things being equal, we will be seeing a Labour government in office in 2015.