EU Referendum


Politics: Batley blue


20/06/2021




Having been completely caught out by the result at Chesham and Amersham, the political pundits are rushing in, attempting to re-establish some of their tarnished credibility by predicting the outcome of the Batley and Spen by-election, scheduled for 1 July.

The emerging consensus amongst these cognoscenti is that the Tories will win the seat, which has been a Labour fiefdom since 1983, a view taken by the Mail's Dan Hodges who raises the "M-word" and one of the major issues.

He cites a conveniently anonymous "senior Labour official", to tell us that "We're haemorrhaging votes among Muslim voters", claiming that the reason for that is Starmer's stance on antisemitism. "Nobody really wants to talk about it", the official says, "but that's the main factor. He challenged Corbyn on it, and there's been a backlash among certain sections of the community".

It is unlikely that this official is relying on first-hand knowledge, in which case he is probably relying on a recent survey which had Starmer reported as being rated "far less favourably than Labour by Muslim voters".

This is based on research commissioned by the Labour Muslim Network after its activists campaigning in the May 2021 elections reported back to the organisation that Labour's vote was "collapsing" in traditional Labour Muslim areas of the country.

Carried out by Survation , its poll showed that while the Labour Party as a whole had a strong net favourability rating among British Muslims of +42 percent, Starmer's personal rating was -7 percent amongst these voters. His rating with general Labour was +34 percent, but he only manages -4 percent from "British Muslims" who voted for Labour at the last general election.

While Labour remains by far the most popular party amongst voting age British Muslims, rated at 72 percent as against a mere 9 percent for the Tories, Starmer is said to have a positive favourability rating of 22 percent, almost equal to that of Johnson, at 20 percent.

However, while these figures may accurate reflect the answers given to the pollsters, I am deeply suspicious of any poll which seeks to portray the sentiment of any body labelled as "British Muslims". Such a body embraces peoples who originate from Bangladesh, Pakistan, South-east Asia (Indonesia) Somalia, the Arabian peninsula and, of course, Kashmir.

In relation to Batley and Spen, the Muslim community is largely of Kashmiri origin, a group known to be close-knit, deeply religious and largely obedient to its religious leaders, the imams. With very rare exceptions, the men will obey the instructions of those leaders and, largely, the women will do as they are told by the men in their families (if they even get to see the postal votes competed in their names).

Thus, the way the community will vote on 1 July will not necessarily bear any relation to the Survation poll, nor to a more recent general poll (also by Survation), published by the Independent on Sunday.

This, like Dan Hodges, predicts that the Tories will take the West Yorkshire constituency, taking a very specific 47 percent of the vote. Labour will trail in second place with 41 percent of the vote, while George Galloway is predicted to take six percent.

That, however, may be a very brave – and even rash – prediction, as the Imams may not even have decided yet, and may not deliver their instructions to their faithful until the Friday before the election.

On the other hand, although the Kashmiris are a significant factor in this race, their votes are by no means decisive. As I remarked yesterday, they comprise a large bloc, but not a majority.

Yesterday, I mistakenly estimated them at 40 percent of the population, whereas the correct figure is 18.8 percent, based on the last census. It is likely to be higher now, although that figure represents proportion of the total population, including children below the age of voting. The actual voting age proportion may be less.

In Bradford West, where Galloway had his famous victory in 2012, the (largely Kashmiri) Muslims do comprise a majority – recording 51.3 percent in the 2011 census, and very much higher now following extensive "white flight". There, the Kashmiris can decide who goes to Westminster. In Batley and Spen, they cannot (yet), even if they might hold the balance of power.

On the other hand, Labour candidate Kim Leadbetter – perhaps influence by the Survation poll on Muslim sentiment, is making a high-profile pitch for the Kashmiri vote (pictured), pledging support for Palestine and Kashmiri independence. But, by so doing, she risks alienating her core supporters, who are none too keen on having their choice of MP decided by such issues.

There is certainly a risk, therefore, that Leadbetter's election strategy will backfire, motivating a significant proportion of her core vote to stay at home. Some may even switch loyalties and vote Tory. Turnout will be worth watching here.

With that, and if Galloway splits the Kashmiri vote, or even creams off the whole of it, the likely effect will be that the Tories take the seat, perhaps with a sizeable margin. And, in this seat, the Lib-Dems are not campaigning heavily, with Ed Davy hinting that Lib Dem supporters should back Labour.

This seems to me to be unwise. In theory, the Lib-Dems are the traditional repository for the mid-term protest vote. They need to provide a bolt-hole for disaffected Labour voters as well as Tories. Davey needs to avoid the siren call of a "progressive coalition", and provide a home for all-comers.

Given that a win for the Lib-Dems at Chesham and Amersham was unlikely, one could suppose that victory in Batley and Spen is equally unlikely – although this time the Lib-Dems aren't even trying. Nevertheless, as well as turnout, the Lib-Dem vote is one to watch.

What would then be an interesting outcome to the forthcoming election would be a narrow Tory victory, on a reduced Labour vote, and increased Lib-Dem vote and a lower turnout. The Tories would be celebrating their victory, but the underlying trend would be less positive.

However, this would still signal danger for Labour, suggesting that the party is a long way from clawing its way back to power. And if its candidates are allowed to chase the ethnic vote, espousing their causes to the detriment of the what was once the white, working class vote, then the party is paving its way to oblivion.

Whatever the result, though, the pundits should be taking note of these observations which is suggesting that the election will turn on "Palestine and Islamophobia". When the politics of a provincial town are thus dominated, we need to think very hard where we're going.

Also published on Turbulent Times.