EU Referendum


Brexit: the beat goes on


08/10/2016




To strengthen their downbeat appraisal of the Merkel speech, the media would doubtless however loved to have included the views of the other half of the Franco-German motor, French President François Hollande.

Sadly for them, he spoke too late to be included in yesterday's print editions, having been addressing guests at a dinner in Paris to celebrate the 20th anniversary of the founding of the Jacques Delors Institute, the think-tank styled as Notre Europe.

This left Euractiv first out of the gate yesterday morning with a report that of a speech that will be remembered best for a gaffe about the American Presidential Election and not at all for his remarks on Brexit.

The thrust of what he had to say was taken as a "warning" against the continued "ambiguity" surrounding Britain’s EU membership, with the President arguing in favour of "tough" Brexit negotiations with the UK. 

But once again, of course, this is a President speaking in a pre-election year, and being tough about Les Rosbifs never yet hurt a French politician in front of his home audience. Having apparently made the mistake of reading the British press, he told his audience, "Britain has decided to go for a Brexit, in fact I believe a 'hard' Brexit. Well, we have to follow through with Britain's wishes to leave the European Union and we need to be firm".

"If not", said Hollande – echoing Merkel, "we would jeopardise the fundamental principles of the EU", warning that other countries might be tempted to leave as well.

According to Euractiv Hollande apparently decided not to mince his words, then saying: "Today the UK wants to leave but pay nothing. That is not possible", adding: "It is neither in the interest of the EU, nor the UK to remain in a situation of ambiguity".

Yesterday, though, the extravaganza continued into the second day, with the man who would be president, Manuel Valls, taking the floor. Yet his speech was classic Gallic ambiguity, as he argued: "Without strong nations, the European project is weakened. But without powerful Union, our nations are reduced in power". Europe, he said, "supplements our sovereignty and gives our nation more weight".

As for Brexit, this was but one of an accumulation of crises (terrorism, migration, etc., ...), which was putting Europe in danger. So, said the French Prime Minister, "end this sad and nitpicking Europe".

That left Juncker to pick up the threads. The European Union, he told the audience, should be "uncompromising" in the face of "manoeuvres" on British conditions. For a start, he said, "We will not negotiate until you have received the farewell letter of the British government".

"It should be obvious", he added, "that if the UK wants to have free access to the internal market, then all the rules and all the freedoms that surround the internal market have to be are fully respected". With that, he declared: "Le Royaume-Uni ne peut pas être un pied dedans, un pied dehors" – you can't have one foot in and one foot out.

It is perhaps fair to have the full sentence of Juncker's speech cited, because he did not say the UK was not invited to have close relations with the EU, but that the UK cannot cherry-pick and simultaneously/therewith destroy the EU. Hence he said:
On ne peut pas être un pied dehors et und pied dedans, en écrasant du pied qui est dehors l'ensemble qui a été mis en place et en marchant comme sur des roulettes pour recueillir les fruits de ce qui doit fonctionner également pour le Royaume-Uni.
And here, it cannot be the case, that Juncker has not been coordinating with Merkel, as he railed against the idea of "whole sectors" of European industry engaged in "secret talks in dark rooms, curtains drawn with the envoys of the British government". "If we begin to unravel the internal market, we will risk the end of Europe", he warned.

At the British end of all this they've now caught up and it wouldn't be the Financial Times if it didn't pile in, slavering at the prospect of Eurogeddon. "The uncompromising message from Paris, Berlin and Brussels is a response to a hardening of the UK position, diplomats say", the paper reported, positively quivering with excitement.

In truth, it is the dinosaurs at bay, not knowing how to handle Brexit and misreading the signs. As hard as it is for us to read Continental politics, ours must seem just as opaque.

From the look of it, these people are reacting to Conservative Party dog whistles, from a newly appointed Prime Minister making her peace with the faithful. And that means they've not even begun to think through the mess they're in. Come the negotiations, they're going to have to do a lot better than they're doing now.