EU Referendum


Norway's PM softens stance?


20/08/2016




Just as YouGov tells us that people prefer a Canadian-style deal to the "Norway option", we get Reuters reporting that Norwegian Prime Minister Erna Solberg sees "some advantages" from the UK joining Efta after leaving the EU.

This adds to the report ten days ago which had Norway saying it had an open mind on the issue, wrongly interpreted by the bulk of the legacy media which had the country poised to block UK entry. That, however, has created the opportunity for a report about a u-turn – which is about as accurate as the original report.

Solberg – a notorious Europhile - accepts that the UK's 65 million people would radically change Efta, currently with a combined population of just 14 million, but she also says that, "It's easy to see some advantages of British membership. It's a big country with a big economy".

Nevertheless, the downside is that the UK might demand conditions that would mainly help it - rather than its putative Efta partners - when negotiating trade deals. "Some countries will probably think it's fine to have a free trade deal with us (Efta), but won't necessarily think that it's equally simple to have a free trade deal with Britain", Solberg says.

She cites farming as one example of a possible conflict of interest. Britain exported food and drink worth £18 billion in 2015 while Norway imposes high import barriers to protect its farmers. As a result, she observes: "I don't think that the Efta path is necessarily the way Britain should be interested in going".

Yet, despite all that, her Conservative Party is in "continuous dialogue" with their peers across the North Sea, which means that the possibility of the "Norway Option" being adopted is still open.

This is especially the case as Solberg's comments are being seen as less sceptical about British membership than she was shortly after the referendum, when she was keen to stressed that it would "change the balance of power in Efta".

Conscious that all Efta states have a veto on the UK's entry, she adds: "It would be wrong to flag a veto or no veto now, and I believe anyway that we will find good solutions to these problems".

She said it was important for all countries to set out their national interests in the debate. "Then all must be prepared for anything, if it turns out that Britain joins Efta". Being "prepared for anything" doubtless also includes using what should more accurately be called the "Efta/EEA option" as an interim solution to the immediate problems of extracting ourselves from EU membership.

That's, of course, where the YouGov survey falls down, in that it offers a limited choice, with respondents favouring a Canadian-style deal, evidently without the first idea of what this entails. Therein lies the fundamental flaw with this type of survey. You can offer the unattainable and it might get the top score, but that doesn't make it any the more attainable.

Similarly, one sees a strong rejection of the idea that the UK should continue paying money to the EU, notwithstanding that payments have already been promised to fill the funding gap for CAP and regional policy, once we leave the EU.

Furthermore, it is inconceivable that we should walk away from the EU agencies and programmes or cease any form of cooperation – all of which carries a significant price tag.

What we are seeing, therefore, is the effects of a distorted debate, where so much of a premium has been put on illusory financial savings from leaving the EU. Come what may, we will be sending some money to Brussels for the foreseeable future – the only question is how much.

On top of that, once we have filled the funding gap, and adjusted our aid spending (while maintaining the 0.7 percent commitment), the amount the taxpayer will be shelling out will hardly diminish. The gain is that we are able to control the spending (most of it), but there are no worthwhile savings to be had.

All of this, though, points up a real problem for Mrs May, when she finally gets a grip with the realities of Brexit. Any sensible choices are not – initially at least – going to be the most popular. Not only does she have her work cut out devising the most appropriate solution, she is going to have a hard job selling it.