EU Referendum


Brexit: the rats rejoin the ship


02/07/2016




In yesterday's speech (Friday), running to around 5,000 words and taking an hour to deliver, Michael Gove's "plan for the United Kingdom" certainly demonstrated that he is fond of the sound of his own voice – excessively so.

When it actually came to talking about his plans for Brexit, though, that took less than 250 words. Mr Gove promised to deliver "specific changes". We would, "leave the European Union, end the supremacy of EU law and take back control of our democracy". With my leadership, it will be delivered, he said.

On the promise to take back control of our borders, Mr Gove informed us that he would "end free movement, introduce an Australian-style points-based system for immigration, and bring numbers down".

As to the money we currently send to Brussels, with his "leadership", it would be invested "on the priorities of the British people - principally in the NHS - and to cut VAT on domestic fuel".

The referendum, he said, "was about democratic accountability the principle that politicians must answer, as directly as possible, to the people who elected them". Because of that, Mr Gove believed that the next Prime Minister had to be "on the winning side of the argument".

Put simply, he said: "the best person to lead Britain out of the European Union is someone who argued to get Britain out of the European Union. That is best for the country - to retain the trust of millions of voters - and it is best for the Conservative party too".

What this "best person" singularly failed to deliver, though, was any detail at all about how he would achieve such wondrous things. And, in terms of trade, all we got from him, in one of two mentions, was that he was "a passionate supporter of free markets, free trade and free enterprise".

"We need bold leadership", said this best person, "both to negotiate our new relationship with the European union, and to pursue new trade deals with the rest of the world… with the US, the Commonwealth and the growing markets in South and East Asia".

With 5,000 words at his disposal, and the undivided attention of the world's press, you might have thought that he could then devote even a tiny ration to telling us what sort of relationship he had in mind, when he was going to trigger Article 50 to set negotiations in motion and how he was going to reconcile the need for a trade agreement with free movement of persons.

That we got such thin gruel, at this stage, is completely unacceptable. Business, for all its support of staying in, nevertheless needs more to go on than what Mr Gove had to offer, just as we all need a better idea of what he has in mind, in order to make an informed choice (not that we actually get a choice).

One suspects, though, that Mr Gove, having wafted through the referendum campaign with no clear exit plan, has very little more idea than when he was clambering out of a bright red bus proclaiming that we would give £350 million a week to the NHS – a detail noticeably absent from yesterday's speech.

But then, with only Dominic Cummings to rely on, the "best person" was hardly equipped to do detail. Perhaps the only real detail to come from Mt Gove – and then only in the questions session – was that he would not give Cummings a job in No 10 or his government.

As to a coherent exit plan, no more detail is forthcoming from the other contenders but, while the politicians retreat behind their smokescreens of waffle, the world and his wife is leaping into print, to offer ideas – mostly centring around the Norway/EEA option.

With far more clarity than "best person" Gove was able to muster, we thus have David Frost, head of the Scotch Whisky Association, talking up the Norway option, "but explicitly as a transitional arrangement", while relying on the protection of "the EEA safeguard clause for free movement".

Despite the uncanny similarity in approach, there was no mention of Flexcit, but his adoption of the principles at least puts Frost streets ahead of Wolfgang Münchau hiding behind the Financial Times paywall to tell us the Norway option "is the best available for the UK".

The Norway option, the Great Sage says, is "the economically most benign of all" and "is economically almost neutral" – which is exactly what I've been saying forever. But in FT land, time has stood still, as Wolfgang gravely informs us that "it would not allow Britain to curtail free movement of labour".

But at least this man is also thinking "transitional arrangement", arguing that you could impose a time limit - say, ten years. We could then continue the arrangement indefinitely, opt out of the EEA and seek a bilateral trade agreement, opt back into full EU membership under Article 49.

Gradually, but oh so slowly, the message is beginning it get through – more than two years after I launched the idea in my paper rejected by the IEA. But then, at least we have a Ukip plan on which to rely.

How interesting it is, therefore, that about the only politician so far to offer anything sensible about leaving the EU is the dyed-in the wool "remainer" Theresa May. The mumsy Andrea Leadsom clearly isn't cutting it, thus opening the way for May's uncontested "coronation" some time next week – or so the "Fleet Street" scuttlebutt goes.

By then, one suspects, the "rats" who so quickly deserted the "Norway option" ship will all be swarming back on board. 

*****

I'm shortly off to Bristol, thence to attend Yeovilton Air Show tomorrow (Saturday) – something of an annual North tradition – returning late Sunday. Until I return, blogging will be light to non-existent.