EU Referendum: too difficult to call

24/03/2016

This has been attributed to the turmoil attached to the resignation of Iain Duncan Smith, rather than reflecting any specific activity of the respective campaigns, which have yet to have any serious impact on public sentiment.

However, in a campaign which has yet to start officially, David Cameron has the worst behind him in that he seems to have got away with returning from Brussels with his hands empty. The failure to secure "full-on" treaty change, should, according to long-standing predictions have given the leavers a 15 percent lead so if this is as bad as it gets, the Prime Minister will be able to count himself fortunate.

It remains to be seen whether the Brussels bombing will have any effect on sentiment, but the results could be equivocal.

Ukip has been quick to invoke lack of border control as a factor in the attacks but the two dead bombers are both Belgian nationals, apparently operating from a cell within the country. With extensive criticism of the Belgian security services also emerging, it may well be the Ukip intervention rebounds on them, and the polls fail to deliver an anti-EU "bounce". In fact, there may well be a backlash against those who have sought to exploit events.

It is not unreasonable to suggest that the degree to which the polls shift will depend on how much voters focus on the actual referendum issues, and the extent to which they are distracted by events. Even the attempts to tie in the ongoing but as yet undeclared Tory leadership contest with the referendum may have a mixed effect.

What will most certainly be relevant, though, is the designation process for the lead campaigner. Applications, which opened on 4 March, close on 31 March - in one week's time. The decision will be announced on 14 April. The choice made by the Electoral Commission will have a significant effect on the conduct of the campaign.

This contest is said to be the real reason for the suspension of Suzanne Evans from Ukip, as this MEP is currently supporting Vote Leave, the rival to the "GO" movement supported officially by Farage and Ukip, and by Arron Banks's Leave.eu.

It will be very difficult for the Electoral Commission to award the lead designation to a grouping which does not have the support of Ukip. But with MEPs Suzanne Evans and Patrick Flynn, plus Ukip's sole MP Douglas Carswell, Vote Leave is able to claim they have some support from this quarter. To these they are also able to add as many as 400 Ukip councillors.

A potential USP (unique selling point) for Arron Banks's Leave.eu, at the core of the "GO" movement was their intention to adopt Flexcit (agreed in private but then denied in public). But a recent e-mail to a reader makes it very clear that the group has abandoned any idea of presenting a coherent exit plan.

Instead, the group merely refers to "a number of outstanding issues that would need to be resolved in the two years after the referendum", and expresses its confidence that these issues will be resolved "as it is in the economic interest of all countries that this happens".

In terms of its campaign strategy, it states an intention to "carry out a grassroots campaign that resonates with ordinary people", that "recognises the need for a large scale ground campaign and carries a message of optimism about our future outside of the European Union".

This retreat from a coherent strategy, to rest its entire campaign on unsupported aspiration, almost certainly weakens Leave.eu's chances of designation - especially as it seems to be "borrowing" Mr Johnson from Vote Leave to populate its own twitter feed, thereby favouring a politician from a rival organisation, and contradicting its claim to be a grassroots organisation. Supporting a Tory leadership contender is hardly the sign of a people's campaign.

For (one assumes) a dispassionate Electoral Commission, this probably puts Vote Leave in the top slot, a position reinforced in terms of the prestige of having a clutch of cabinet ministers in its ranks, and a demonstrably more effective administration.

If Vote Leave takes the prize, that will require a clarification of its relations with Boris Johnson, who is not yet formally part of the Vote Leave campaign. The likelihood is that he will be anointed "Mr Bexit" and become de facto leader of the "leave" campaign.

Although the alternative of Mr Farage is no more attractive, Johnson's position would bring into high focus his chaotic performance in front of the Treasury select committee. And while the Telegraph is content to re-write history to protect the reputation if its man, there are other reports which give a more accurate picture.

Johnson is now quite clearly a marked man as it was quite evident that he was the focus of an elaborate ambush in the select committee - a deliberate attempt to bring him down. His inability to deal with this attack bodes ill for the campaign as a whole. It could have a significant adverse effect on voter sentiment, over the longer term.

With three weeks to go before the official start of the campaign, however, there is no way of telling which way things will go. At the moment, it is far too difficult to call. It is remain's to win and ours to lose.