There was a clear split yesterday between the majority of pundits who believed that Mr Cameron's four demands amounted to nothing very much â or even nothing at all â and those few (such as Owen Paterson) who recognised this as an opening bid in what will eventually be the full-blown offer of "associate membership".
Even then, you could see of Murnaghan, to whom Paterson was addressing his views, that he was hearing the words, but they meant nothing to him. As we have been wont to observe, such people lack the intellectual architecture to understand the information they are given.
Most of these, of course, are the self-same pundits who were convinced that there was going to be a hung parliament at the general election, that Greece was going to drop out of the euro, and there was going to be a referendum in the spring of next year.
But it was Paterson who made the link between the four "demands" and the "associate membership" that we expect to be offered, cemented in with a new treaty. Mr Cameron is gearing up to turn the 20 percent or so of voters amendable to changing their minds, with the promise that he has a new relationship in the making. This is a message not intended for the clever-dicks, but for the swing voters who will decide the referendum.
In due course, as the theatre progresses, the Prime Minister will embellish this basic package. By the time we get the added drama and the rest of the "goodies", it will look pretty plausible â possibly enough to have its desired effect.
However, we are told by the great Tim Montgomerie that almost no "informed person - literally none - expects Mr Cameron's renegotiation to make any difference". Against such perspicacity, we can only stand back in awe. What can we possibly know, compared with men of such stature?
The thing is, while the pundits grovel around in the weeds, trading statistics with ever-growing volume to the extent that they drown each other out, Mr Cameron is carving out the high ground. And apparently, only the "ill-informed" seem to recognise this.
Logically, the answer would seem to be for us to become "informed", like all these clever pundits. Maybe I should give Mr Montgomerie a call, so he can tell me all I need to know.
