EU Referendum


EU Referendum: guessing the date


04/10/2015



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One of the things I'm going to enjoy about the fest in Manchester this week is pointing out how so much of the media got it totally wrong on the timing of the referendum.

We have, for instance, the Independent of 25 July – about nine weeks ago – confidently predicting that David Cameron was set to hold the referendum in June next year and would "announce the fast-tracked date as the centrepiece of his party's annual conference in October".

At that time, the paper had it that George Osborne was believed to be keen for the referendum to be held later rather than sooner, but the Prime Minister had "calculated that a 2016 vote will give him a better chance of promoting what may end up being a limited package of EU reforms, and of highlighting the economic risks Britain could face if it left the EU".

At the time, this was repeated by the coprophagic Daily Express but now, we're getting the Sunday Telegraph telling us what we've known all along, that "the Prime Minister indicates that he will not be rushed into naming the date of the EU referendum".

That comes out of a pre-conference interview and is a thinly-coded confirmation that there will be no date set at the conference, not at any time in the near future. David Cameron is playing the long game.

The Telegraph has no cause to feel superior, though, as it was retailing on 19 September fears from rebel Conservative MPs that there would be an early referendum called, again announced at the party conference. This time, though, roles had reversed and it was George Osborne trying to get it "out of the way" as soon as possible.

Generally, all the papers have been playing silly games and getting it wrong, with the Daily Mail in June last predicting a referendum for October next year. Then, and many times since, a Downing Street spokesman dismissed the predictions as "pure speculation",

The off thing is that, when newspapers such as the Guardian are prepared to accept Downing Street dismissals of "associate membership" being "nonsense" and "speculation", the guessing game on the referendum date has continued unabated.

Not for nothing, therefore, does Lost Leonardo refer to the "moronic media". Ever since Cameron moved us to fixed-term Parliaments, the witless hacks have been robbed of their "guess the date" game for the general election, and are making up for lost time with the referendum.

Put bluntly, they are not capable of much else, so expecting them to write intelligently about this or any other aspect of the referendum is perhaps asking too much. They one thing they are good at, though, is glossing over their errors, so the one thing we need not expect is anything like an apology for their mounting errors.

Without so much as a blush, they will all be back at it over the week, adding to their litany of false predictions, blissfully unaware that their credibility is dribbling down the drain. But then, the great advantage of working for the legacy media is never having to admit you are wrong.