EU Referendum


EU Referendum: preparing the ground


03/09/2015



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If one believes in coincidences, then Daniel Finkelstein's article in the Times is just one of those coincidences – just like Matthew Sinclair's article in the Telegraph, both extolling the virtues of associate membership, without actually mentioning it.

Sinclair – out of the blue, he would have us believe – dreamed up with soul-mate Andrew Lilico, Commission shill extraordinaire, the idea of splitting up the EU into the eurozone and non-eurozone member states. And now, up pops Finkelstein to tell us that, "Europe can survive only if it splits in two".

In this total coincidence, Danny the Fink – as he likes to be called – tells us that David Cameron "must push for the troubled eurozone to become a superstate and the UK to be part of a looser trading bloc", thus putting him alongside the Sinclair/Lilico with exactly the same solution. But this was all totally spontaneous of course.

There again, if you don't believe in coincidences – and there are too many similarities to be generous – then this is part of a co-ordinated process to soften up public opinion prior to Mr Cameron suddenly discovering the merits of something which he will claim to have negotiated but which – as we know – was pre-ordained.

The problem is that, at a very superficial level, the idea of a two-tier EU looks attractive, and there are a number of soft eurosceptics who see associate membership as an acceptable alternative to leaving. Some even argue that this status makes it essentially a "semantic question" whether we are in or out.

Finklestein in his spontaneous exposition calls in aid David Owen's resuscitated book, Europe Restructured, which happens to mention pulling in Norway and Iceland into a new grouping, although Owen is talking about "a looser free trade area clearly based on independent nation states", which isn't on offer.

What in fact is proposed is a situation where the eurozone states will leap ahead into a new phase of political and economic integration, leaving the "outer zone" members to remain in the EU much as it is, rebranded as associate members.

Necessarily, there will be all sorts pretence, dissimulation and downright dishonesty from the ranks of sympathetic journalists and political placemen, all to confuse the issue and to prepare the ground for the grand finale.

But whatever the background noise, the die is already set. Even recently we saw in Süddeutsche Zeitung an interview with French economy minister Emmanuel Macron, who is suggesting that there should be "radical reform" at the latest by 2019, anchored in a new EU treaty.

Macron says, "We must now prepare all the changes of the EU Treaty", and argues that, if his party is re-elected in the 2017 elections, "France and Germany are behind us". In 2018 or 2019, he adds, Europe should stand on a new and better foundation.

And it is that treaty, negotiated and agreed after Mr Cameron's deadline for the EU regulation, which will set the parameters for the associate agreement. But those details will not be known by the time the UK electorate goes to the polls, permitting the Prime Minister a great deal of flexibility as to how he describes his "victory".

But the only way he can get away it, though, is to spring this on the public at the last possible moment, giving little time for critical analysis. With the help of his obedient ciphers, he will hope to pull the wool over the eyes of the public in what The Boiling Frog calls "the Cameron ploy".

Despite this, Mr Cameron has an incredibly weak hand. He is entirely at the mercy of the "colleagues" and can only work within the parameters they will set. No matter how much his useful fools dress it up, there is always the Bertelsmann/Spinelli Fundamental Law to bring them back to earth.

And that is the way the game is being played. For an indeterminate period, but quite possibly for the next two years, there will be a soft-sell on associate membership by any other name. In fact, the only name that will never be used is associate membership".

The thing is, we're already on to it. They can't disguise it, and it is not going to be the great "victory" that Mr Cameron wants it to be. No matter how much the ground is prepared for him, it will always be his ploy.