EU Referendum


EU politics: treaty change on the agenda


01/08/2015



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The Times under the by-line of Bruno Waterfield is telling us of a "German call for EU overhaul" which, it is said, "helps make Cameron's case" for reform of the EU. Germany, Waterfield writes, is pushing to strip key powers from the European Commission, seeking to separate its increasingly political role from its central job as the enforcer of European Union rules.

Before going into detail, we would suggest that the important thing about the Times article is that it is the first time (that I can recall) that we see a British newspaper  acknowledge that major changes are afoot to the treaties which, Waterfield writes, "would come too late for Mr Cameron's planned referendum by the end of 2017".

Thus does Waterfield state that this: "could mean that Britain has two EU referendums within five years, with a second, on structural reform in Brussels, early in the next decade".

He adds that: "While France and Germany disagree on the enforcement of spending rules, both countries recognise that the EU must be reorganised around a core 'political union' of eurozone countries, with an overhaul of European treaties by 2025".

Interestingly, when the idea of a second referendum was brought up at Farage's press conference on Thursday, it provoked much mirth – from journalists as well as Farage. This was one of several pointers indicating a lack of strategic appreciation. Those there seemed to have no understanding of the bigger picture.

As to that bigger picture, the source of Waterfield's story is the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung. This has German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble calling for some of the Commission's powers to be cut back, with the institution completely restructured. His concern is that the Commission under Juncker is increasingly politicised and having to make political compromises which are not compatible with its role as "guardian of the treaty".

The German Finance Minister is thus suggesting that the functions are split and enforcement tasks are outsourced to politically independent institutions, which will take care of functions such as single market administration and competition policy. This leaves us with a "political commission" which is then free to act more as a European government.

Schäuble, we are told, wants to feed his ideas in the discussion on EU reform and is looking to London for support. But both the British ideas and Schäuble's considerations need changes to the EU treaties.

Since, says FAZ, this also applies to French President Hollande's ideas for economic government in the euro area, treaty change "cannot be completely excluded" - even if the underlying ideas are very different.

And there the story stood, not only as Waterfield picked it up but also as the Financial Times carried it, this newspaper reporting that it had been "partially confirmed by the finance ministry" as "part of a growing debate over the future of the eurozone".

This paper also reminds us that Hollande has pressed for an overhaul of the eurozone, while Italian finance minister Pier Carlo Padoan has called for a rapid move to a full political union. But, it says, the the new ideas being advanced have highlighted the differences between eurozone countries on the way forward, particularly between the French and Italian camp and Berlin.

However, the story does not finish there. As FAZ later reports, there are differences in Berlin as well, with Economy Minister Sigmar Gabriel complaining that he knew nothing of Schäuble's proposals. A spokeswoman for Gabriel tersely remarked that: "This is a proposal of the Federal Ministry of Finance", effectively disowning it as an official government viewpoint.

Schäuble, of course, is an enthusiastic Europhile, and it is said that he sometimes forgets who he works for – that he's a minister in the Federal Government. It takes the Irish Times to remind us of this, citing Berlin officials saying that Dr Schäuble has always been a defender of the Commission. His remarks were nothing new, they said, but part of a "wider, medium-term" discussion about the future role of Brussels institutions.

We are certainly seeing that discussion in the German media. GoogleNews records hundreds of articles in the last couple of months – against a mere handful in the British press. Süddeutsche Zeitung, for instance, refers to the Five Presidents' Report, which has got scant publicity in the UK, noting that it has been put in the agenda of the EU finance ministers. Ministers from London and Paris, and from Helsinki to Rome, are setting out their views.

Die Presse notes that, "after years of reform fatigue, the debate about a restructuring of the EU is in full swing". Greece has been the catalyst and "provocateur of the hour" is Wolfgang Schäuble. The fact that the European political protagonists are pursuing different interests, it says, is not new. This time, however, there are at least three different fronts: between the European institutions and the Member States, between the individual EU member states and between the UK and the rest of the Union.

Schäuble's "mind games", says Die Presse, can be understood as a response to the Five-President Report, which has called for the gradual deepening of economic and monetary union. In that respect, Schäuble is giving the UK an opening - depoliticised oversight of the internal market in return for greater integration within the eurozone.

That may in fact be Schäuble's real intention, as Die Zeit dismisses rumours of tensions between him and Juncker. It cites a Commission spokesperson saying that Juncker pursues "with great and friendly interest" all the ideas puts forward by Schäuble. And, as the discussion widens, more and more we are seeing the same narrative - that treaty change will be required.

There can be no doubt about this – treaty change is in the air, building up a momentum. It is a path fraught with danger for Member States, and one where there is much trepidation. Thus, whether it happens is anyone's guess, but no one can deny that it is now firmly embedded in the European political agenda. Only in Britain do we see so superficial a discussion - and utterly bewildering considering we are in the run-up to a referendum campaign.