EU Referendum


EU Referendum: in for the long-haul


15/07/2015



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Verhofstadt is talking about a new treaty and the need for economic governance of the eurozone. And that's on its way now, as opinion firms up in support of the EU, with 68 percent in this survey broadly in favour of UK membership - far more than would vote for any particular political party.

Focusing on the Greek issue, it is very easy for Eurosceptics to reinforce their own confirmation bias and tell themselves that the EU is on its last legs. But they are talking to themselves. In institutional terms, the EU has probably never been stronger and more confident, while there is little support for Greece in the rest of Europe.

Hilariously, at this point, Owen Jones decides to turn against the EU, arguing for the "left" to take a stand. Then master-strategist Nigel Farage launches the Ukip referendum campaign about two years prematurely, using the problem at Calais as a lead issue, despite the fact that this is not directly an EU failing.

Meanwhile, as confusion reigns over the difference between EFTA and EEA (probably deliberate, according to Boiling Frog), the real agenda begins to look more and more like "associate membership" as the definitive offer - something which, if it transpires, would have a profound effect on the shape of the "no" campaign.

And this is the next important step – looking at the way a fast-moving game is developing. We are still probably looking at a poll more than two years away, so time spent planning and building the campaign will not be time wasted. We need to know the measure of our enemy before we commit our forces to the fight.

More to the point, if there is going to be a long delay before we do get to the polls, we need to learn to pace ourselves. Memories may be short, but most will recall how the general election seemed to drag, as people lost interest in the endless repetition of the same dreary points.

With the summer break almost on us, we have just the opportunity to retrench and plan, taking the time out really to think about what we're doing, and what we're trying to achieve. Like the man said, there's a first time for everything.