13/07/2015
Apart from the legacy media and a small band of euro-nerds, one actually wonders if anyone still cares what happens to Greece, especially after the "colleagues" jumped the shark yesterday and went into reverse on holding the supreme summit of summits, instead opting for a prolonged demi-summit.
Serious students of EU politics will already be aware of how much of these events is theatre, and how much they play to the gallery of corralled press persons. These are the people who are so bored out of their skulls that they are reduced to publishing each other's tweets â the ultimate in coprophagia.
Otherwise described as a "weekend of high tension", when ordinary humans were otherwsie engaged with the Wimbledon finals and a superb airshow, the idea that this bit of local difficulty is threatening "to break Europe" takes on the dimensions of the surreal.
The outcome, of course, is pre-ordained â the only variable are the amount of drama and how long the "colleagues" think they can drag it out. Already, the final, final, final deadline has swept past Sunday, to occupy the Monday slot. It is then to extend into Wednesday as the Greek Parliament is expected to rubber-stamp the largelyâdeserved humiliation of a
failed state.
This is a country demonstrably lacking in candour and competence, where the Syriza government's short period of office
is being described as "a catalogue of incompetence and a salutary tale of how radical rhetoric can have direct, catastrophic consequences on people's livelihoods and savings". Would any sensible person lend Mr Tsipras the money to buy a used car?
Only when Mr Tsipras starts treating the proceedings seriously will the Greeks be allowed to take part in serious technical talks on a third bailout in five years, with a potential â¬86 billion on the table. But, for that, the "colleagues" want pensions reform, a new VAT regime, more privatisation and administrative reforms. They are not minded to give the Greeks an easy ride.
And rather than Greece getting expelled from the eurozone (not that that could happen), it seems that Mr Tsipras's recalcitrant political partners are facing
expulsion from the cabinet, as opposition politicians line up to support the government. Of other member states, we are told that only France and Cyprus are clearly rooting for Greece, with the "colleagues" inclined to cut it adrift and let it float off into the Aegean.
But, sadly for some, we will wake up tomorrow morning and Greece will still be in the euro. We will wake up again and again and Greece will still be in the euro. The whole point of a ratchet is that it is a ratchet. And "ratchet effect" is named after the ratchet, and what ratchets do.
So, if things don't quite pan out on Wednesday, there'll be plenty more for Thursday and then a bit left for Friday and Saturday, in time for next week's Sunday papers. Doubtless ,they will be ready for another bit of Armageddon, telling us the euro, the EU and everything in it, is about to crash and burn.
"Euro-doom" has, in fact, become something of a cottage industry, with a productivity that most industries would die for. Never mind that the model range is a bit limited and the products are a bit stale. As long as there is a demand, the producers will keep churning out the goods. Don't you love the free market?
Back on the planet Earth, though, what we are seeing is a measure of unity and determination amongst the "colleagues" that we have never seen before, as they prepare the way for a new, delayed treaty to make sure they are never again held to ransom.
That is the one thing Greece will have achieved. Right now we should have been looking down the nose of a new convention, with a treaty change on the books by 2017. But Mr Cameron has delayed that by three years, with his threat of hijacking the process.
By 2017, the "British question" will have been resolved, and the "colleagues" will be gearing themselves up to hold their delayed convention. And, with memories of Greece and lost weekends fresh in their minds, the deal will be done with minimum dissent, barring an amount of ritual theatre from France and a few other players.
The Greeks thus will have served their purpose - driving the project forwards. For a chump-change bailout, the price will be considered well worth it â for those who actually notice and still care.
