EU Referendum


EU Referendum: a serious non-crisis


05/07/2015



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Hyperventilation is very much to fore, with all sorts of alarmist predictions over the fate of Greece and the euro. But, as we pointed out, the reality of the Greek economy is that it is totally insignificant in the grander scheme of things. A mere 1.8 percent of the eurozone economy is not going to bring the euro down.

What people also forget is that the EU works on the basis of the beneficial crisis. The political will for complete economic integration was simply not there when the euro was launched, so it was always going to fail. It was meant to. Only through a series of crises could each necessary additional step be legitimised – and this is just another step.

But, before the next treaty which brings a greater degree of economic governance, Greece must be brought back into line. Only then will it be given any relief. This is a country where the government is not only corrupt, and the élite families make the mafia look like amateurs, but the people themselves have been corrupted.

But whether or not Greece drops out of the euro (and I rather suspect it won't), it is not going to give Mr Cameron any breaks. The procedural way out for Greece to leave the euro is to invoke the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties.

Article 61 permits a country to invoke the impossibility of performing a treaty as a ground for terminating or withdrawing from it, something which could apply to Greece. However, it could be argued that the "impossibility" arises from Greece's own breach, which would invalidate the Article. In treaty law, though, things tend to mean what people want them to mean.

Whichever way they play it though, there is going to be no opportunity for Mr Cameron to play games as this drama runs its course. But the sooner it's over the better, and we can get back to the main event.