EU Referendum


EU Referendum: conceding the ground?


07/06/2015



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A new group of 50 Conservative MPs and MEPs has been set up, including Owen Paterson and John Redwood, calling themselves Conservatives for Britain (CfB). They have decided they will formally support David Cameron's efforts to negotiate better terms for Britain's EU membership but, if the Prime Minister fails to achieve "truly radical changes", they say they will join the "no" campaign.

The group's name has conscious echoes of Business for Britain, says the Sunday Telegraph "raises the prospect of a single 'out' organisation taking shape under the banner 'For Britain' when the referendum battle begins".

Notwithstanding that this is to be a "yes-no" rather than an "in-out" campaign – which means the somebody hasn't caught up yet, this might present some conceptual difficulties, as the group's public position is "maybe". 

If Mr Cameron – as expected - does not announce the outcome of the negotiations until towards the end of the campaign, this could mean a "wait and see" position being held for the bulk of the campaigning period, with the MPs and MEPs ruling themselves out of the debate until then.

However, Conservative MP Steve Baker, chairing the group, says his members will monitor the Prime Minister's progress in securing a radical new deal. He then says that unless Britain regains sovereignty over its own laws and power to trade freely, he and his colleagues will launch their own formal "out" (or perhaps "no") campaign.

It is already self-evident that these objectives cannot be secured as long as the UK remains in the EU, and Mr Cameron has already described the concept of a veto for Parliament over EU laws as "impossible". In fact, short of the UK invoking Article 50, there is no way the "colleagues" could accede to such demands without a major treaty, which is not even on the table.

Nevertheless, Mr Baker says: "We wish David Cameron every success", then adding, "unless senior EU officials awake to the possibility that one of the EU's largest members is serious about a fundamental change in our relationship (which is not being asked for and will not be given), our recommendation to British voters seems likely to be exit".

This, we are told by the Telegraph is a "dramatic development", which demonstrates that large numbers of "eurosceptic" Tories are no longer prepared to wait before setting out their case against Britain's membership of the EU as it stands. We are also told that it highlights the determination of the group to ensure that a highly-organised "out" campaign is up and running well before Mr Cameron concludes his negotiations with other EU leaders.

That, though, does not entirely mesh with Mr Baker writing in his own name, telling us that CfB has been formed "to discuss the criteria by which to judge the Government's EU renegotiation". He then says: "We are willing to consider how to prepare for an 'out' (or perhaps 'no') campaign if, lamentably, the European Union establishment will not allow the UK a new relationship of trade and co-operation".

By its own reckoning, it would appear that the group cannot act until Mr Cameron has admitted that "the European Union establishment" has refused to give him the "truly radical changes" that he has no intention of asking for, arguing that at least some are "impossible".

Thus, one can only assume that if there is to be a highly-organised "out" (or perhaps "no") campaign, it will be left standing at the kerb with its engine running, possibly until days before the poll. By contrast, Ukip leader Nigel Farage was being quoted all yesterday as saying that the "out" (or perhaps "no") campaign must take shape now. He argues that his party could "fight the ground game" in the battle.

Whether by accident or design, therefore, Mr Farage seems to have pre-empted the CfB and is prepared to get a campaign up and running before even the Conservative "eurosceptics" have been able to "consider how to prepare for an 'out' (or perhaps 'no') campaign".

There has been some blog comment on this Conservative stance, which is not overwhelmingly enthusiastic, and there is twitter reaction which might be described as "sharp". Some Conservative MPs may find it a little difficult to explain why, having campaigned personally on an "out" ticket, they have now joined the ranks of the "maybes" and are ceding the ground to Ukip.