19/05/2015
We are now
being told that David Cameron intends to put the EU Referendum Bill at the top of the Queen's Speech, with some sources saying that the draft Bill will be published the next day.
This doesn't stop the idle hacks telling us that "ministers will be able to force through the law by summer next year even if it is blocked in the House of Lords this year", thus "fuelling speculation the poll could be held in 2016".
However, since the Electoral Commission recommends that there is a nine-month gap between the legislation being implemented and the poll, the completion of the Bill by summer of next year inevitably means that the voting has to take place in 2017.
I suppose those burbling that there will be an early poll are on a par who earnestly told me that Mr Cameron would not call a referendum, although we still have some of those, who haven't changed their position. They will, no doubt, still be denying the obvious as we are ticking our ballot papers.
The denial brigade, however â aligned with those who failed to see a Conservative victory at the general election â have contributed to our almost total lack of preparedness, but that still doesn't stop Farage calling for a 2016 poll.
With Ukip still in disarray (having only staged round one of its ritual blood-letting) â and having sat on its hands for over a decade, without preparing an exit plan â the party is in no position to fight a referendum campaign. This makes Farage's enthusiasm for an early poll particularly otiose.
But then, if you are used to going into battle completely unprepared, and without an effective plan â then to be defeated â it might be as well to go early as late, and get the humiliation over with.
Nevertheless, according to
The Times, there is growing scepticism across the Conservative party at suggestions that the referendum might take place a year earlier than the 2017 deadline promised by Mr Cameron.
That puts Farage on the back foot once again, picking the wrong horse. Yet, if he had been better prepared â and taken my advice tendered over a decade ago â this would not be the case. Not least, we would have had a unit in place to counter the Europhile
Open Europe, which has the
Guardian waxing lyrical over the prospects of reform.
Instead, the party seems reluctant even to recognise that there is a referendum in the offing, its website whinging about the electoral system and the perceived need for reform. That gives an indication of where its priorities lie.
Perhaps, though, given the effect of the party on the majority of the electorate, its silence on the issue is just as well. Better it stays out of the fray than poisons the well even further, making it harder to get an effective message to voters.
In fact, Farage promises not to seek to monopolise the EU "out" campaign, claiming that fears among Tory MPs about Ukip dominating everything were entirely false. "We will be an important voice", he says, "but there will be a lot of voices there". He thinks that a broader, "let's have a different relationship with the EU" campaign is needed.
Since Mr Farage has yet to define with any clarity what that relationship should be, and how we would get to where he wants to go without wrecking the economy, he really does need to keep quiet.
