EU Referendum


UKIP: return of the unresigned


12/05/2015



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On reporting that Nigel Farage is to stay on as leader, the Telegraph suggested that the news risked "turning Ukip into a laughing stock". And a lot of people think the same way.

This was after the party NEC had rejected Farage's resignation, and also concluded that "Ukip's general election campaign had been a great success", then adding that it "recognised that the referendum campaign has already begun this week and we need our best team to fight that campaign led by Nigel".

And so the unresigned has risen, ready to repeat his "great success" in the general election, which saw its representation in the Westminster Parliament halved, from two to one.

Interestingly, the one remaining MP, Douglas Carswell, was clearly not in the loop, having that morning written on his own blog that, "Ukip's next leader needs to be someone that recognises our party exists first and foremost to get Britain out of the European Union". "Everything that our new leader does over the coming months", he added, "needs to be directed at securing a majority in favour of leaving the EU". Then, for the "money quote", he reminded his readers that:
Given than 87 percent of people did not vote Ukip at the last general election, Ukip needs to campaign in the coming referendum as part of a wider movement. Yes, we might be passionate about the need to leave the EU. We should recognise that we might not always be the best people to make the case to undecided voters.
"The case against our continued EU membership is not simply a matter of immigration, but of a better kind of Britain for the future", the MP continued:
Ukip must not make the mistake made by the SNP in their recent referendum. We should not equate support for leaving the EU with support for our own party. Do that, and the European Commission in Brussels would be delighted.
From a man who, in my view, has not always distinguished himself, this is a fair and balanced appraisal. There is an inherent recognition that Ukip has built for itself a "glass ceiling". It has only been able to attract the support of about eight percent of the electorate and polls as the party which has the highest proportion of respondents who say they will never vote for it under any circumstances.

In the referendum campaign, even if the majority of Ukip supporters  vote for "out", that will only give us the eight percent. We need in excess of forty percent of the total electorate. The question to which Carswell is alluding is that, given the antipathy so many people have to Ukip, is whether it playing a prominent part in the campaign will cost more votes than it gains, losing us the majority we need.

But what applies to Ukip applies in spades to Farage. As the recent experience in Thanet has shown, he is a divisive figure. As a Salmond-equivalent, dominating the referendum campaign, he would do much to ensure that we lost the contest. Brussels would indeed be delighted

However, this is not just an issue for Ukip and Farage. What applies to them should also apply to the other political parties. For instance, if the campaign is "owned" by the Tory right, then that could be just as damaging - as dangerous as in 1975, when the "no" campaign was associated with the trade unions.

In my view, the "out" campaign needs to distance itself from ALL political parties. It must capitalise on the anti-politics vote and become the people's campaign. We should welcome party activists, but as individuals. They will need to leave their party affiliations at the door.

But that said, the role of political parties may be more limited than in Scotland. There, the conduct of the campaign was governed by the Scottish Independence Referendum Act 2013. This referendum will be governed by its own Act, which may not permit politicians to take the same dominant roles.

If the "unresigned" is allowed take over, though, it could become a referendum on him and not the EU. Then we lose.

Ukip should listen to its own MP.