07/05/2015
After what feels like an eternity, we are finally there. Kellner gives a
narrow lead to the Conservatives, 48 seats to the SNP, 31 to the Lib-Dems and a mere two for Ukip.
So much for
Matt Goodwin who in March was happily predicting that Ukip already had "four seats in the bag". His view was that Ukip was likely to win six seats. "They have pretty much got three or four seats now in the bag unless there is a monumental mistake and a car crash before May 7", he said.
Well, there wasn't so much a single car crash as a series of train wrecks â the inevitable result of an incompetent party with no ideological base and leadership that is not up to the job.
For what it is worth, I think Ukip will struggle to make one seat, but elections being what they are, there is a margin for error. We could see three, although I doubt it. Of more interest, I still expect the Conservatives to do better than the pundits are predicting, and would not be surprised if they come away with an overall majority. And that will give us a referendum.
Win or lose,
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard reckons we'll have a referendum anyway, within the next ten years. That's almost a racing certainty, as the "colleagues" will be looking for a new treaty within that timescale, and that will bring us into referendum lock territory. In that case, it won't be an "in-out", but a "yes-no", although the one could lead to another.
That would make the outcome of today's election less important, although I would still expect an "in-out" referendum, at some time in the future, even if we get Mr Cameron's 2017 referendum and fail to win. Thus, I stick to my view that we could use this event as our dress rehearsal.
Until we have the results of the election, though, all this is academic. Hence, the stocks of popcorn have been made ready, the keyboard had been sharpened and the coffee percolator is on standby. All we have to do is sit back and watch the fun. But it's going to be a long night.
