17/02/2015
The most disturbing thing that came over from the
UKIP: The First 100 Days was the facility with which writer-director Chris Atkins was able to make the case for massive job losses following the announcement of the Ukip "government" that Britain was to leave the EU.
That is a reflection of the total failure of Ukip to break the link between membership of the EU and participation in the Single Market. It is also an accurate reflection of the consequences of the sort messy exit that Ukip has on offer.
Thus has the party of "out" allowed itself â even if by default - to be associated with the graphic images presented in the programme, lending more substance to the job loss meme than a thousand hours of Europhile chat shows could ever do.
The association between Ukip and an immigration policy committed to deporting illegal immigrants was also made clear, and â however much the "kippers" might squawk â the consequences of such a policy would involve an aggressive programme of raids and not a little violence.
Where the programme falls down â rather like Ukip policy â is that there was no attempt to explain how Mr Farage's "government" would manage to deport so many migrants, without first establishing agreements with countries willing to take them. That all previous governments have been unable to do this is one reason why so few have been deported.
Also missing from the fictional scenario is any reference to repealing the Human Rights Act â which might take rather longer than a year, after the repeal Bill had been blocked in the Lords. In real life (not that we are dealing with such an elusive thing) - and in any case during the first 100 days - there would be very few deportations. Most orders would be tied up in endless appeals in the courts.
Thus, the idea that the fictional Deepa Kaur MP would be put on the spot so quickly, with the situation deteriorating to the point where there was rioting in the streets, lacked any credibility whatsoever â entirely in keeping with Ukip's policies, which are about as fictional as was Chris Atkins's story line.
Not at all fictional, though, is yesterday's
Guardian/ICM poll which not only put the Conservatives four percent ahead of Labour, but had Ukip going down two points to score a mere nine points, the second poll
in a week to put Farage's party below ten percent.
With Farage's own personal rating also
taking a dive and the Ukip "brand" becoming
even more toxic than Labour or Conservative, the "kippers" now seem to be on their way down.
Soon enough, this might even become apparent to the professionals, although
Matt Goodwin will probably be the last to realise. But when Ukip does crash and burn at the general election, there will be more than a few pundits marking "UKIP: The First 100 Days" as the turning point.
It won't be, of course, but it will give "experts" like Goodwin the excuses they need for having missed the downturn that should eventually lead to Ukip's last 100 days and oblivion.