26/01/2015
Last time, we followed the
last Greek crisis, blow-by-blow, in the expectation of a rebellion against the EU. It didn't happen.
But now there is the promise of great things. Under the title of a "turning point for the EU?", the
BBC tells us, on Klathmonos Square, the flags were flying high, supporters of Syriza were singing and dancing, there were hugs and tears and broad beaming smiles.
This, we are further informed, was an extraordinary victory for the radical left in Greece - probably beyond its own expectations. Alexis Tsipras will now try to lead an anti-austerity revolution, backed by a strong democratic mandate.
He said in his victory speech that he is willing to negotiate with Greece's European partners. But the question is: how much are they prepared to compromise with him?
Syriza wants to reverse cuts in public services and increase salaries and pensions again. It wants to write off a large chunk of Greece's huge public debt, most of which it now owes to other governments in the eurozone. This is the Greek rebellion against austerity.
Mr Cameron
thinks it will increase economic uncertainty, and the Spanish leftists
are saying "we're next!".
But I have my doubts about whether anything substantial will come of this. Greece is a small country, on the fringes of the Empire with a small population (less than 11 million) and a tiny GDP, under $250 billion â about 1.5 percent of the eurozone.
In brute terms, the amount of damage it can do to rest of the eurozone economy is slight, while its own economy is fragile and highly sensitive to external shocks.
My guess, therefore, is that we will see from the new Greek government some ritual chest beating and some scare headlines from the pundits, followed by a few minor concessions from the "colleagues" and some none-too-subtle waving of the big stick.
Then the Greeks will knuckle under like they always do, and some sort of stability will be restored, with limited disruption to the EU as a whole. For the one thing the last crisis taught us is that the eurozone is far more resilient than pundits would have us believe, with no interest in the global community in bringing it down.
The one thing the "colleagues" can't afford to do is submit to blackmail so, if necessary, Greece will be driven to the wall,
pour encourager les autres. It will not be allowed to pull down the euro â no one sensible wants that, and no one could welcome the chaos that would ensue.
