10/11/2014
After the interesting little survey about perceptions and reality on
immigration, we get a similar type of survey, this one from YouGov
on taxation.
Normally, this wouldn't be our bag, although it is interesting enough, showing that â as with immigration â the perceptions and realities are very different. For instance, while 25 percent of government spending is on "welfare", the public perception is that the spend on this category is 12 percent. Asked how much we would like to be spent and the figure drops to ten percent.
Health spending shows similar divergences. Our perception is 12 percent, the actuality is 19 percent and our preference stands at 17 percent. In other words, we would like more to be spent than what we think is spent, but less than is actually spent.
But, after the furore over the £1.7bn "surcharge", what really grabbed my attention were the views on the EU budget. As opposed to the actual spend of one percent, the perception is that seven percent of the government's budget is handed to Brussels â hugely more than is actually spent. When it comes to preference, though, we would be happy with three percent.
So, we think we pay more than we do, but would be happy to spend much more is actually budgeted. This might have some implications for any referendum campaign.
In particular, it points to a possible opening for the Europhiles. If they are able to get through to the general population the amount that is actually spent on the EU budget, then this could neutralise the budget as an issue. We are, after all, spending significantly less than is acceptable.
The different perspective could also serve as a warning to the "outers". I've felt for some time that the budget "hype" has been overblown, and this might provide some evidence for that.
The constant Eurosceptic propaganda may have served to ramp up concern about the budget beyond that which can be sustained by the actuality. Continuing to push this issue, therefore, could prove counter-productive, provoking a backlash.
Either way, the mismatch between perception and reality, with the additional contrast of perceptions, could provide food for thought as to how we play the budget issue.
I'm actually quite relaxed about this, though. My evaluations suggest that we are not going to save as much from leaving the EU as some pundits think we might. The survey could suggest that may not be damaging to the cause, and that we can afford to focus on other issues.
FORUM THREAD
