EU Referendum


EU referendum: troublesome volatility


31/10/2014



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Only a month ago we were confronting an Ipsos Mori EU referendum poll which had 56 percent wanting to stay in the EU, compared with 36 percent who would vote to get out; eight percent did not know how they would vote.

This translated to 61 percent support for Britain's EU membership and 39 percent opposing after excluding "don't knows", creating a worrying 22 percent shortfall in the support for the "out" proposition.

But now, from the YouGov stable, we get another poll which transforms the position. From a week ago, when 41 percent said they would vote to stay in, against 40 percent "outers", we now have 35 percent and 44 percent, respectively, giving a nine percent lead for "out".

If we take out the "don't knows" and the "would not vote", we're looking at 56 against 44 percent, giving a 12 percent lead to the outers – effectively a 34-point swing in the space of three weeks.

There can be little doubt as to the cause of this swing – the £1.7bn demand from the Commission has self-evidently had a dramatic effect on sentiment, and driven huge swathes of voters into the "out camp".

But, as they say in the small print, what goes up can go down. And if sentiment is that volatile, then it would seem that any carefully structured campaign can easily be knocked off course by events.

And that is another point to draw from this sudden change – it has been event-driven rather than the effect of any specific intervention by campaigners. The commission action has been a gift to the outers, but it is nothing that we worked for or brought to the fore. We are simply the unwitting beneficiaries of events outside our control.

Looking at the detailed results, though, YouGov's Stephan Shakespeare notes that the swing is consistent across supporters of Labour, the Lib-Dems and the Conservatives.

The Ukipites, on the other hand, can't swing as much, with only two percent wanting to stay in, they are pretty rock solid about wanting to leave. Thus, it is entirely unnecessary to bolster the UKIP vote. We need to be expending out energies elsewhere.

Here, there is an interesting correlation between age and sentiment. The older the voter, the more likely they are to want to get out. And with only 22 percent of 18-24 year olds wanting to get out, as opposed to 57 percent of the 60+ group, it would seem that the growth in the "out" vote will come from the younger-aged groups.

Appearances, though, can be deceptive. The UKIP vote shows that a block can be almost solid in one direction, which thus illustrates that there is plenty of scope for growth in the 60+ group. And, given that the over-60s are far more likely to vote than the young (three or more times), their votes are much more valuable.

With The Times also recording that net payments to EU funds have doubled, from £4 billion since 2007 to £8.5 billion on the current account, there is plenty of material to work on.

When it finally dawns that the UK is going to have to pay the £1.7bn surcharge, some of the movement towards the "out" camp might firm up, with the vote solidifying in the outers' favour.

Nevertheless, the volatility remains worrying, so we will have to watch closely to see which way the next few poll results take us. If we have just experienced a turning point, then the game is on for the next election to push hard for a referendum. 

On the other hand, I remain to be convinced that the cost of EU contributions is the pivotal issue. After all, with a deficit growing at £100bn a year, even £1.7bn is less than two week's borrowing, and if we're into serious money, then we need to be looking at the £1.3 trillion which the government wants us to spend on meeting the 2050 emissions target.

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