EU Referendum


UK politics: mischief-making at the Sunday Times


21/09/2014



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In the tiresome way that the legacy media conducts its affairs, the Sunday Times today is stoking up dissent in the Conservative ranks, writing openly of David Cameron facing "open revolt" from "Tory grandees" over his handling of the Scottish referendum.

This narrative has former ministers warning that Mr Cameron is on course to lose the next election, one of those ministers being Owen Paterson, the former environment secretary. Amongst other things he has complained that the prime minister did not consult the cabinet about details of the referendum, including the question on the ballot paper and the timing of the vote.

However, that is by no means the main thrust of Mr Paterson's comments who, in his first newspaper interview since being fired in the last reshuffle, is warning Mr Cameron that he must adopt "robust, genuinely Conservative policies" or risk the "criminal failure" of letting Ed Miliband into Downing Street.

In what the newspaper then calls an "open challenge to Cameron's authority", Mr Paterson is also said to have called on the prime minister to cut tax, tackle the "raw, open wound" of immigration and spell out what powers he wants to reclaim from Brussels, or he will be "walked all over".

Paterson complained that there was no consultation with the Cabinet before the prime minister let Alex Salmond set the independence question. He said: "I have talked to two cabinet ministers, one of them still serving, as to whether the detail of this referendum was discussed in cabinet and I don’t remember it being so".

Cabinet ministers might have sought to impose a 60 percent or two-thirds majority threshold for such far-reaching constitutional change, Paterson adds, which would have made a nationalist victory far less likely. "I don't remember it being discussed", he says. "We would have had some interesting discussions. The most obvious thing being why was there no threshold?"

"Why", he then asks, "was only one small constituent part of the United Kingdom empowered through a referendum to potentially tear up the entire constitution of the United Kingdom?", also criticising Cameron's lack of consultation with MPs or grassroots Conservatives before he agreed to offer Scotland new tax-raising powers.

"I think it would be good if there was more open discussion in cabinet", he declares. "I think it would have been good if there was more consultation with MPs. I think it would have been good if there was more forewarning of what was coming. We were all completely in the dark".

With the newspaper telling us that "Tory MPs [are] poised to revolt if Cameron, as promised, keeps the Barnett formula", Paterson then warns that: "The English will not tolerate another lopsided settlement designed to appease nationalist sentiment paid for by English taxpayers".

This, though, is not actually said in the spirit of rebellion that the Sunday Times is so keen to promote. Mr Paterson has said many times that his stance is one of "candid friend" to the prime minister, engaged in the common cause of getting the Conservatives into office at the next election.

Carswell's route is not for Paterson, and he remains a Tory loyalist, conscious also that the quickest route to an "in-out" referendum on the EU is to vote Conservative at the general election.

Thus, while the Sunday Times rightly observes that Paterson is viewed as a key figure by Eurosceptic and rural Tories, he is not – as the newspaper asserts - moving "to position himself at the forefront of the prime minister's right-wing critics".

This is no David Davis or Redwood, carping from the edges, sour grapes from an ex-minister who still has not come to terms with rejection. Paterson is determined to take a much more positive, pro-active role.

When the ST thus has Paterson warning Cameron that he has less than two months to turn round Tory fortunes, and that he is running out of time to convince voters about their economic arguments, the former environment minister is offering genuine advice, based on a determination to win.

"There is a rule", says Paterson (actually quoting "Booker's Law"), that whoever is ahead with six months to go [of a general election] will normally win".

"Lynton Crosby is good on this", Paterson says. "You cannot fatten the pig on market day. We should be making the bold statement that free markets provide employment, and they generate wealth which delivers taxes which deliver public services".

And this is where Paterson feels that the Conservatives could be stating their case more clearly. The leadership, he says, had not been clear enough with voters about the benefits of free market capitalism. "We have begun to control public spending. We have begun to control the deficit. But we are still borrowing far too much and we are still taxing people far too much", he says.

Paterson would like every citizen to go into the voting booth knowing if they vote Conservative, they are absolutely guaranteed they can trust the Tory party to reduce their tax burden. Asked if he supported cutting income tax rates and raising thresholds to take people out of the higher rate of tax, he said: "Everything".

Moving into more fraught territory, Paterson also calls on Cameron to spell out what he intends to achieve with his renegotiation of relations with Brussels and be prepared to campaign to leave the EU, something the prime minister has so far refused to do.

"I think in any deal, if you don't get the deal you want, you walk away from it", he says. "Otherwise you get walked all over during the negotiations because they don't think you're serious". He then adds: "You've got to wish the prime minister all the best, but it would be good if he outlined exactly where he wants to end up. He's been very canny not to outline anything".

With what amount to a tactical statement, Paterson is still prepared to signal that he is prepared to lead the group of Tory MPs who would prefer to leave the EU. Paterson say the countries in the euro "effectively want to form a new country — and that gives us the opportunity to get our country back. We're much better making laws in our own parliament".

He is also demanding action to "manage immigration", warning that UKIP was exploiting the "raw, open wound" of immigration to steal Tory votes. Students of nuances will note that Paterson is talking about managing immigration, rather than closing borders. He is to address the fringe on this, at the Conservative Party conference.

And this is where Paterson aims to make the difference. He has established a think tank, the ST rather archly saying that this is "to promote his interests". Actually, it is in the interest of promoting "robust, genuinely Conservative policies", with Paterson insisting that his intervention "is intended to help the Tory party".

Paterson intends his think tank to outline areas of policy "of real concern to our citizens" and which "could improve their lives by 2020". Not only is he to make several speeches on the fringes of the Conservative party conference, he is also to give the annual lecture to the Global Warming Policy Foundation, where he will be offering his ideas for genuinely innovative energy policy.

The Sunday Times reports Senior Tories saying that some donors are now funnelling cash to Paterson, which would otherwise have been sent to Tory high command for its election war chest. But it is Paterson's intention to produce serious policy contribution, and these cannot but help Conservative fortunes.

In a warning shot at Cameron, he says: "The message is: I am bloody well not going away. I've had a huge number of letters of support. I represent a clear strand of opinion in the Tory party and I intend to keep expressing that in a constructive manner".

The thing about Paterson - in a climate where it is fashionable to denigrate politicians as a breed – is that he is a skilled and experienced politician. Then, he learned his craft not in the protected cloisters of Westminster, but in the altogether tougher crucible of trade politics, as President of the European Tanners Confederation, after becoming the director of his family leather business.

This is a man with real world experience, in real jobs and real politics, with a better grasp of how the world – and government – works than any dozen ministers. His new think tank is the one to watch. Provisionally called UK 2020, it is in the market for real ideas.

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