Richard North, 27/05/2014  

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As sure as the sun rises in the morning, whenever I have referred to YouGov polling results, there is someone there to tell me how unreliable they are, simply because president Kellner is married to Baroness Von Ashdown and is in the thrall of Brussels.

But, unless über Führer Kilner has actually rigged the results of the euro-elections to match his predictions, his poll has been the most accurate on the block – as Autonomous mind explains.

The actual results also make UKIP favourite, Survation, one of the class dummies, this company having consistently inflated the standing of the Farage party.

This has nothing to do, of course, with the fact that donor Andrew Bown has thrown shed-loads of money at the company. It is just one of those inexplicable coincidences that so often emerge, that poll companies manage to deliver results which coincide with their paymasters' expectations.

This notwithstanding, I tend to use the YouGov trackers, not because of any inherent accuracy, but because they offer more frequent polls. On the assumption that their errors are consistent, they can be relied upon for trends. Being more frequent than most, YouGov offers the best way of picking up any changes.

Thus, I am not terribly concerned that über Führer Kilner is a not-so-secret agent for the Kommission. All I ask is that, when his polls are wring, they are consistently wring. But, being consistently right is even better.

That trust, however, does not extend to Kellner's political analysis. Being a bubble-dweller, he is just as prone to misinterpreting the results of his data as the rest of the claque. This is the man who takes the choice of 9.4 percent of the electorate to be a political "earthquake".

Over-emphasising the nature of poll movements is a common failing of the bubble-dwellers. Their self-referential framework leads them to believe that things which are important to them are necessarily so to the rest of humanity. And that is how, even despite accurate data, they so often manage to get caught out.


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