Richard North, 26/05/2014  
 

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That's what Marine Le Pen is saying – of France: "Shut away in the darkness of Europe". It's a good phrase, as conveyed by DW online

Her party, Front National, has routinely been scoring 23 percent in the polls, against 21 percent for the centre-right main opposition party, the UMP. Hollande's Socialist party has been getting no more than 16-18 percent.

Now, according to exit polls (courtesy of the Guardian), the Front National has come first with more than 25 percent of the vote, using the stunningly original slogan, "No to Brussels – Yes to France" (pictured).

Furthermore, the nationalist anti-immigrant Danish People's party "won" by a similar margin in Denmark. In Austria, the far right Freedom Party took one fifth of the vote, according to projections, while on the hard left, Alexis Tsipras led Greece's Syriza movement to a watershed victory over the country's two governing and traditional ruling parties, New Democracy conservatives and the Pasok social democrats.

And now we learn how many MEPs Mr Farage's party is to send to Brussels. YouGov predicted 22 seats and 27 percent of the vote to make UKIP the "winner", with a massive 2.9 percent of the voting power of the European Parliament. Labour was predicted to come second, tying with 22 seats and 26 percent of the vote. The polling company put the Conservatives third with 16 seats and 22 percent of the vote. Greens get four seats (10 percent of the vote) and the Lib-Dems pull three seats on nine percent of the vote.

North East was first out of the trap. Lead party is Labour, with 221.988 votes, giving them 36 percent of the vote (up 11 points). Second is UKIP with 177,660 votes - 29 percent (up 14 and better than predicted). Third come the Conservatives. They get 107,733 votes - 18 percent (down two percent).

The Lib-Dems get a mere 36,093 - six percent. They are down 12 points, as near slaughter as you get. The Greens get 31,605 votes - five percent (down one). The BNP takes 10,360 votes, scoring two percent (down 9 points). With three seats available, two go to Labour and one to UKIP. The Lib-Dems lose their 2009 seat. 

For the first time, the North-East has a UKIP MEP. The electorate is 1,968,780, turnout comes in at 608,652 (30.92 percent), up 0.51 percent on 2009.

East of England is one of UKIP's strongest areas. Here the Farage party gets 542,812 votes - 35 percent of the vote (up 15 points). The Conservatives come second with 446,569 votes – 28 percent, down three points. Labour, on third, gets 271,601 votes – 17 percent (up seven points). Greens get 133,331 votes - 8 percent (no change), Lib-Dems pull in 108,010 votes – seven percent (down 7 points) and BNP pulls a mere 12,465 votes.

This gives UKIP three MEPs (up one on 2009), two Conservatives (down one) and one Labour unchanged. The region has lost one seat which, last election, went to the Lib-Dems. The electorate is 4,385,428 and turnout is 1,574,346 (35.9 percent), down 1.8 percent on 2009.

East Midlands has delivered 368,734 votes for UKIP – 33 percent (up 16 points). Conservatives come second with 291,270 votes – 26 percent (down 4 points). Labour has 279,363 – 25 percent (up 8 points). The Greens score 67,066 votes – 6 percent, the Lib-Dems trail with 60,773 votes and the BNP gets 18,326 votes.

This gives UKIP two seats (up 1), the Conservatives get two (no change) and Labour take one (no change). The Lib-Dems lose their seat. The electorate is 3,375,604 strong. Turnout is 1,120,722 (33.20 percent) down 3.87 percent on 2009.

Yorkshire and Humberside has UKIP on 403,630 votes (31.13 percent) up 13.70 points, Labour on 380,189 votes, Conservatives on 248,945 votes, Green on 102,282, Lib Dems on 81,108 and BNP on 20,138. This gives UKIP three seats (up one), Labour two (up one), and the Conservatives one (down one). The BNP and the Lib-Dems have lost their seats. The electorate is 3,868,192 and turnout is 1,296,701 (33.52 percent) up 1.19 percent.

Wales has Labour getting 206,332 votes (28.15 percent), up 7.86 points, UKIP takes 201,982 votes, (27.55 percent) up 14.76 points, the Conservatives are on 127,742 votes (17.43 percent), down 3.79 points, Plaid Cymru gets 111,864 (15.26 percent), down 3.25 points, the Greens have 33,275 votes, and BNP pulls in 7,655. This gives one each seats to Labour, UKIP, the Conservatives and Plaid Cymru. The electorate is 2,291,186 and turnout is 733,060 (31.99 percent) up 1.6 percent.

South West delivers UKIP 484,184 votes (32.29 percent) up 10.23 points, Conservatives 433,151 votes (28.89 percent) down 1.36 percent, Labour 206,124 (13.75 percent) up 6.09 percent, Greens 166,447 (11.10 percent) up 1.8 percent, the Lib-Dems get 160,376 (10.70 percent) down 6.49 points, and the BNP fall down to 10,910 (0.73 percent), down 3.2 points.

Conservatives lose one seat to end up with two, the Greens gain one, Labour has gained one seat, UKIP are unchanged with two, and the Lib Dems lose their seat. The electorate is 4,059,889 and the turnout is 1,499,442 (36.93 percent), down 1.82 points.

North West has Labour on 594,063 votes, (34 percent) up 13 points, UKIP gets 481,932 (27 percent) up 12 points, Conservatives 351,985 votes, Greens 123,075 votes, Lib Dems 105,487 and BNP on 32,826 votes. Labour has won three seats (up one), UKIP three seats (up two), and the Conservatives two (down one). The BNP and the Lib Dems have both lost a seat.

West Midlands, with an extra seat allocated, gives UKIP 428,010 votes, (31.49 percent) up 10.23 points, Labour is on 363,033 votes (26.71 percent), up 9.71 points, Conservatives on 330,470 (24.31 percent) down 3.77 percent, Lib-Dems on 75,648 percent (5.57 percent) down 6.48 percent, Greens on 71,464 (5.26 percent) down 0.99 points, and BNP on 20,643 (1.52 percent), down 7.11 points.

UKIP gets three seats (up one on 2009), Labour gets two (up one), the Conservatives keep two (no change), The Lib-Dems loses its seat. The electorate is 4,105,904 and turnout is 1,359,207 (33.10 percent) down 1.73 percent.

South East has UKIP with 751,439 votes (32.14 percent) up 13.29 percent, the Conservatives get 723,571 votes (30.95 percent), down 3.84 percent, Labour has 342,775 votes (14.66 percent), up 6.41 percent, Greens 211,706 (9.05 percent), down 2.57 percent, Lib-Dems 187,876 (8.04 percent) down 6.11 percent and BNP picks up 16,909 votes (0.72 percent) down 3.64 percent.

UKIP picks up four seats (up two), the Conservatives have three (losing one), Labour gets one (no change), the Greens have one (no change) and the Lib-Dems get one (losing one). The electorate is 6,489,246 and the turnout is 2,338,050 (36.03 percent), down 1.44 percent.

London gives Labour the result it needs, with 806,959 votes (37 percent) up 15 points. The Conservatives get 495,639 (22 percent) down five points, UKIP takes 371,133 votes and 17 percent of the vote, up six percent. The Greens manage 196,419 votes, (9 percent), down two points, and the Lib-Dems struggle to make 148,013 (7 percent), down seven. The BNP trails with 19,246.

This gives Labour four seats (up two), the Conservatives two (down 1), UKIP gets one (no change) and the Greens one (no change). The Lib Dems lose their one seat. The electorate is 5,490,248 and turnout is 2,200,475 (40.08 percent), up 6.78 points.

Scotland results finally deliver the Scottish National Party 389,503 votes, (28.99 percent), virtually static, down 0.07 points. Labour is only a fraction behind with 348,219 votes, (25.92 percent), up 5.11 points. The Conservatives get 231,330 votes (17.22 percent), up 0.4 points and UKIP get 140,534 votes, (10.46 percent), pulling in an increase of 5.23 points.

The Greens pick up 108,305 (8.06 percent), up 0.78 points and the Lib-Dems bomb, getting 95,319 votes (7.09 percent), down 4.41 points. British National Party takes 10,216 votes (0.76 percent), down 1.70 points. The result gives the SNP and Labour each two seats. The Conservatives take one and the remainder goes to UKIP. Turnout was 33.5 percent, an improvement on 2009 when it stood at 28.5 percent.

Turnout: Overall, the BBC is still recording 34.19 percent, slightly below the 34.4 percent recorded in 2009. This may change when the final figures are available.

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With eleven of the twelve regions having been declared (only Ulster to come), the voting stands as per the chart above. It has UKIP on 24 seats and 27.49 percent of the vote, up 11 points on 2009. The seat tally is two more than the YouGov projections (although the predicted vote, at 27 percent, was very close), putting the Farage party firmly in first place. 

Labour is now in second place with 20 seats after a good showing in London and picking up two in Scotland, ending up with 25.4 percent of the vote. This is still a poor performance for the challenger. The Conservatives have to be content 19 seats, but with 23.9 percent of the vote.This is a better than expected showing.  

The Greens have taken three seats, including one from London, with 7.87 percent of the vote (no substantial change in share of vote), putting the party in fourth place. The Lib-Dems are left with one seat, on 6.87 percent, down seven points - close to a wipe-out, having failed to salvage a seat from London.

Ulster will go its own way and will not affect the seat ranking of the main parties, which can now be taken as definitive. Councing is under way, with Sinn Fein's Martina Anderson currently leading initial European election polls. The DUP's Diane Dodds and Ulster Unionist Jim Nicholson are predicted to retain their seats.

Vote percentages are provisional, awaiting final figures. I'll post updates through the day as and when the data become available. Analysis on Autonomous Mind and the Complete Bastard.






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