06/05/2014
"David Cameron's demands to renegotiate British membership of the EU would not necessarily require a treaty change, according to the top Brussels lawyer who helped to draft every EU treaty from Maastricht to Lisbon".
So says the
Financial Times, reporting events which seems to be paving the way for Cameron to offer a Wilsonian fudge â a "yes-no" referendum with a faux negotiation and no treaty change.
Mr Cameron's glad tidings come from Jean-Claude Piris, former legal counsel of the European Council and the Council of Ministers. He says that his "
seven key demands" could be met with some deft legal drafting, provided there was political will and a mood for compromise on both sides of the negotiations.
Nevertheless, the
FT is realistic enough to recognise that Mr Piris's analysis is likely to reinforce a view among Tory MPs that the prime minister's European strategy is "too timid and open to a political fudge".
However, it is a matter of fact that there is insufficient time for a full-blown treaty change between now and the end of 2017. Therefore, if Mr Cameron is to keep to his timetable, he has no option but to go for the "fudge". And there is no reason to think that he will not get away with it.
This is a prime minister, after all, who has managed to convince a largely uncritical media â and many of their readers â that he has vetoed a non-existent treaty. And if he can do that, it should be no great problem for him to convince them that he has done a deal with Brussels, sufficient at least for the political
claque to lap it up.
We look thus to be facing the prospect of a 2017 referendum and, with the media and the three main parties pitching behind the prime minister (assuming he wins the 2015 general election â which cannot be discounted), we look to be facing a re-run of the 1975 campaign.
There will, of course, be differences. Not least, we will have UKIP batting on our side but, with its
recent and past performance, the party may prove to be a liability.
Nor will, necessarily, the access to the internet prove to be any great blessing. We have seen over the years how people rarely stray out of their comfort zones and tend to use the greater access to information simply to reinforce their prejudices.
However, if we accept that, in just over three years we could be fighting an "in-out" referendum, then we are going to have to take a cold, hard look at what we need to do to win the campaign.
And here, there is already another difference between now and 1975 â if the polls stand, we will go into the campaign with public sentiment already against us. And unless we can reverse the tide, we will lose.
Uncomfortable though this may be, the facts as they stand point to the greater likelihood that we will lose a 2017 referendum. Even if we hope the contrary will be the case, too much is at stake simply to hope for the best and expect everything to come right on the day.
Thus, over the next months, those of us who feel passionately about leaving the EU are going to have to do some serious thinking and make some hard decisions. But make no mistake, if we have to fight a 2017 referendum, we will be ready â and it would not be a good idea to get in our way.
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