01/05/2014
As the euro-elections come closer, we have not one but two opinion polls to entertain us. One, from
ComRes offers headline figures which give UKIP 38 percent, Labour 27, the Conservatives 18 and the Lib-Dems at 8 percent.
The other poll is from
TNS global and that puts UKIP on 36 percent, Labour 27, Conservatives 18 and the Lib- Dems at 10 percent (see above - click to enlarge).
However, what is not being stated is that these results are being heavily doctored, not least with "likelihood of voting" factored in and unknowns/refusals factored out.
When the raw data are examined, though, the picture looks a bit different. From ComRes, UKIP drops to 24 percent, Labour goes to 22, the Conservatives take 15 and the Lib-Dems end up with six percent. The "refusers" weight in at 3 percent and the "don't knows" stack up to 20 percent. In other words, the "refusers" and "don't knows" top the UKIP score.
When we go to TNS, however, the position gets even more interesting. UKIP plummets to 17 percent, Labour is on 16, the Conservatives go to 11 and the Lib-Dems get five percent.
What then gets really interesting, though, is that those who "would not vote for a party" rack up with 29 percent, and those who "prefer not to say" gives us 16 percent. Thus, the unvoters â the pollsters' equivalent of the undead - smack a huge 45 percent of the total. This is close to three times more than the turnout for the poll leader.
The thing about polls is the more you process and polish the data, the more assumptions that have to be made, and the greater the potential for error. And where you have the "undead" exceeding those actually picking the lead party, anything goes.
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