15/03/2014
Russia and the "west" are on collision course over Ukraine, says the loss making
Guardian and many of the other legacy media sources.
This is after extended talks in London at the American ambassador's residence, where US secretary of state John Kerry and his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov failed to reach agreement as Crimea prepares for Sunday's referendum on joining Russia.
Before even the talks had broken up, though,
a Reuters journalist had seen a Russian warship unloading trucks, troops and at least one armoured personnel carrier at a bay near Sevastopol.
The ship was the Yamal 156, a Landing Ship Tank (LST), a serious piece of kit, seen at at Kazachaya Bay near Sevastopol. The vehicles drove off the landing ramp onto open ground near an oil storage terminal. One flatbed truck was seen carrying an armoured personnel carrier (APC) â type unspecified.
Last Monday, a Reuters journalist also saw a column of at least 100 Russian vehicles, including trucks, APCs and artillery on a road in the same area. Currently, this is Ukrainian territory, some 10 miles from Sevastopol which Moscow leases from Kiev to station its Black Sea Fleet.
Ukrainian officials and analysts estimate that some 20,000 Russian troops are now in Crimea, of whom fewer than 12,000 are attached to the Black Sea Fleet. The remainder comprise infantry and paratroopers brought from Russia. Under the terms of the lease for the fleet, Moscow can station up to 25,000 troops in Sevastopol, but not on other Ukrainian territory.
Further indications of a Russian military build-up come from a Ukrainian defence ministry official in Crimea. He conveys witness testimony of Russian armoured vehicles landing in Kerch, a port at the eastern end of the peninsula.
We also learn of a train carrying 14 S-300 surface-to-air missile launchers on its way to Sevastopol.
Another source reports a column of about 100 vehicles, including trucks and armoured personnel carriers, heading from the northern town of Dzhankoi toward Perekop, on an isthmus leading to mainland Ukraine.
Despite multiple,
alarmist and often
derivative reports of troop movements, there have been no authenticated (or any) legacy media reports of the massing of combat formations. Most media photographs show soft-skinned vehicles, while those portraying armoured vehicles often seem to be relying on ancient stock photographs. Some show Ukrainian army equipment, mislabelled as Russian.
What is missing from contemporary media accounts, therefore, is as interesting as what is being recorded. Unlike the Russians invasion of Georgia, there have been no specific reports of tank movements, or of heavy units moving into position. While we hear of airborne troop exercises, the tank divisions and the most modern T-90s are staying out of sight of the legacy media for the moment.
However, outside of the legacy media loop, we are seeing posted on YouTube shots of significant troop movements, claimed to be redeployment of Russian troops to the borders of Ukraine. Here, we see MTBs (difficult to tell the marks), and BTR-80 variant APCs, the opening shots showing what appear to be BMP-2s tracked MICVs on transporters.
Other
uncorroborated reports claim to show recent Ukrainian Army movements, but from these sources there is no evidence of tactical deployment of armour.
Analysis here is very difficult, as the location and even the direction of travel is not verified, and nor are the dates of the filming we are seeing. Nor, on the the face of it, are we seeing armoured divisions. On the Russian side, the high proportion of BTR-80 variants would suggest infantry division movements (strangely, Russian infantry divisions have more armour than tank divisions). Furthermore, élite Guards units might be equipped with BMP-3s, although the state of the re-equipment programme is not known.
You have to be careful what you accept as evidence though, which really does make long-distance analysis complicated. For instance, we see a sequence of pictures on
Zerohedge, purporting to show Russian troops "piling up on the east Ukrainian border" - one illustrated above.
These pictures come from
this site, claimed to be located at Belgorod, which is indeed near the Ukrainian border. However, the armoured vehicles appear to be a mix of BMD-2s and BTR-Ds, light tanks and APCs, equipment used by Russian airborne forces.
The complication here is that some BMD-2s have been replaced by the more modern BMD-3s and there is currently a
replacement programme in hand, introducing
BMD-4s to front-line units. Although there is
documented evidence of BMD-2s being deployed in the Ryazan region by the 137th Guards Airborne Regiment, part of the 106th Guards Airborne Division, in September 2011, these were going to be replaced in 2013.
The possibility is, therefore, that these are not recent photographs. Even if they are, we know the Russian military, like most, tends to issue the most up-to-date equipment to elite units. It seems possible, therefore, that a formation equipped with BMD-2s is not one that will be a spearhead unit, tasked with leading an invasion of Ukraine.
Nevertheless, we can obviously expect some troop movements, even on a precautionary basis, but we can also expect deception operations, posturing and psychological warfare. Troop movements, per se, do not indicate an intention to take military action. Thus, what we see is interesting and the situation needs watching.
From what has been seen locally, though, one can surmise that the Russians are not expecting organised Ukrainian military resistance on any scale, at least not in the very near future. Any immediate opposition might be expected to be light and sporadic, although the Russians are obviously concerned about the possibility of hostile overflights. And, of course, the situation can change very quickly.
Clearly, though, there is no concern at the Single European Tank putting in an appearance, and â of course â there is no chance of physical intervention by Nato or US forces. The Russians are on home turf and can afford to play the long game.
Kerry can complain all he likes about "a back-door annexation" of Crimea, and possible breaches of international law, but there is very little else he can do. The chances of an all-out war, at this particular moment, seem slight. A third world war is not on the agenda for today.
UPDATE: As of today, 80 military personnel of the Russian Federation Armed Forces landed near the village Strilkove (marked below) and seized a gas pumping facility with the support of four helicopter gunships and three "armoured combat machines".
The Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs
has expressed a "strong and categorical protest" against the "military invasion by Russia" and demands an immediate withdrawal of Russian military forces from the territory of Ukraine.
Ukraine, says it reserves the right to use all necessary measures to stop the military invasion by Russia. The Bear, it seems, has just growled a little louder.
