25/07/2013
I'm sorry, but I'm really struggling with the idea that we have a prime minister whose ambition is
this. Of all the things that there are to do in this life, and this man has this for an ambition? Perhaps we should arrange for him to front an exploratory mission to Iran. I'm sure they will help him out.
Meanwhile, dwelling on serious politics, I had prepared for yesterday a powerpoint presentation, the last slide of which is illustrated above. That is my best estimate of when we will actually leave the EU.
The tempo will not be dictated by Mr Cameron or domestic politics, but by the "colleagues". By next year, after the German general election and before the European Parliament elections, the Commission has undertaken to give its views on the "future of Europe", which will be the starting pistol for a new treaty.
The timing will pick up for real the following year, when the new parliament will agree to launch a treaty convention which will be set for early 2015. That will last eighteen months to two years, bringing us to 2017 when we will be in the midst of an IGC - at the same time Mr Cameron has pencilled-in an "in-out" referendum, following treaty renegotiations. The referendum, therefore, simply isn't going to happen.
What may happen though is that in 2018 or 2019, there will be a referendum in the new treaty, under the existing "referendum lock" provisions. That will be a "yes-no" referendum and, despite opt-outs agreed for the UK, I confidently expect any referendum to deliver a "no" verdict.
That, effectively, will formalise a "two-tier Europe", putting an end to the somewhat farcical claim that Britain can ever be at the "heart of Europe". And, with a general election in 2020, if all goes to plan, we will be in the "exit lounge" with at least one of the main parties promising a full-blown "in-out" referendum in the next parliamentary term.
I would then expect that "in-out" referendum to be held in 2022 (or possibly even 2021). This will be followed by an Article 50 notification by at least 2022, and an exit treaty agreed two years later. There will then be a very rapid second referendum to approve the terms of the deal, and the ECA will be repealed the following year, 2025. Then we are out.
That gives us less than ten years to prepare for and win an "out" campaign. If we really put our minds to it, that is just enough time. Perhaps we should be grateful that Mr Cameron's ambitions are so limited. While he is frittering away his time, we can concentrate on the main event â out by 2025.
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