EU Referendum


Dutch election: holding onto nurse


13/09/2012



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When you are a small country with a relatively large population, and your economy is dominated by your much larger neighbour, it is very hard to take a truly independent political line.

Such is the fate of Holland, invaded and occupied in the last century and still dominated by Germany, albeit mainly economically, it has remained a staunch, if sometimes not wholly enthusiastic European partner.

However, when in the Spring, prime minister Mark Rutte (VVD) tendered his Liberal government's resignation after Geert Wilders' Freedom Party (PVV) blocked talks aimed at cutting €16 billion from the budget, there was some thought that, in the subsequent general election, the Freedom Party would do quite well.

Furthermore, there was good sense in thinking this might happen. The budget crisis had, after all, been triggered by a decision in 2011 that all EU member states should present their preliminary budget plans for 2012 to the EU Commission before the end of April.

This was supposedly to prevent a repeat of the "situation in Greece", made worse by a provision that the commission could recommend "adjustments" to the plans announced by states, if it thought the budgets too lax.

In fact, Wilders was only the proximate cause of the government collapse. Even without his intervention, the ruling coalition in the Netherlands no longer had a parliamentary majority and there had been some real "show stoppers" on the table that had already threatened the bring the coalition down.

One was the long-disputed issue of tax deductability on mortgage interest where, on the one hand, everyone was sick of the system being abused by the "rich", while on the other hand many middle and low income earners would face severe financial problems if it was removed. And all of this was in the face of a slowly collapsing house market, where prices have fallen in some areas by as much as seven percent in two years.

Anyhow, despite media appeals to press ahead, the government lacked a mandate to produce a budget, and its collapse brought us to the current situation where, yesterday, a general election was held, the dead hand of the EU being, to an extent, responsible - but only to an extent.

For other reasons too numerous to mention, the population had other reasons to be unhappy, but not a little of that unhappiness was also directed at the EU, making "Europe" an electoral issue – not a major one but enough for a popularist opportunist like Wilders to exploit.

Wilders might have felt he was helped by the leading parties losing popularity. Not least, the PvdA (labour party), under Diederik Samsom, haemorrhaged support by embracing mass immigration and multiculturalism, the resultant very large Turkish and Moroccan populations giving rise to an increasing sense of unease. This sentiment was certainly giving Wilders a considerable boost.

However, under its charismatic leader, Emile Roemer, the Socialist Party (SP) had been storming ahead as well. A likeable, teddy bear of a man with a big smile, he had offered middle-of-the-road socialist policies, giving socialism an acceptable face.

On the day, though, caution seems to have won through. Early polls, on a mere 48 percent turnout, indicated that the Dutch had stayed with their mainstream parties. The fight remained with Mark Rutte's Liberals and the centre-left Labour Party of Diederik Samsom. The Socialists came a poor third and the Freedom Party had faded to a poor fourth. Rutte, with the strongest international profile and the most seats, will doubtless remain premier.

Handelsblatt, which also sells in Holland, triumphantly proclaims the "good news" that "clumsy Euro-bashing does not pay".

Even the socialist Emile Roemer, who was a few weeks ago seen as a potential winner, fell back in the polls to third place after a dismal showing in televised debates. But, says the paper, he had also called the Maastricht stability criteria "idiotic" and had asserted that the Netherlands would give fines to Brussels for deficit breaches "over my dead body".

But the real loser seems to be Wilder. He had led a "radical anti-European campaign" with the slogan "Your Brussels, our Netherlands", apparently alienating many party members. He called for complete withdrawal from the EU and even called back the "Dutch" star on the EU flag.

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But what Handelsblatt calls "political stunts" has seen Wilders' party drop to 12.3 percent of the vote, 3.2 percent less than in the previous election. The party was expected to lose nearly half its seats, dropping from 24 to just 15. Its participation in a new government seems unlikely. "Dear, what a weird night", says Wilders.

With the "eurosceptics" out in the cold, utte's party is expected to gain 41 seats, with Labour on 39. Despite having only 40 percent of policies in common, the two together command a "pro-european" majority in the 150-seat parliament, and will meet later today to discuss forming a government.

A famous victory seems to have been won by the political élites.