05/07/2012
Watching the Kremlin was easier â at least the bigwigs occasionally lined up on Lenin's tomb, so you knew who was in and who was out. EU politics is a little harder to read.
A useful sign, though, was a meeting yesterday between Merkel and Monti in Rome where, according to
Handelsblatt, it was sweetness and light - or "unison and harmony" as the paper put it â all with cicadas chirping outside the Villa Madama and a light summer breeze blowing.
In normal circumstances, it would have been just another routine meeting, but the pair made a great show of agreement on the "supposed sticking points", with both evoking a "spirit" of the euro crisis. Both emphasised the unanimity of the decisions made at the European Council and pledged to be "determined to overcome the difficulties together".
Merkel laughed about her image as "Iron Chancellor" Angela, she praised Monti's reform efforts and warmly emphasised the close co-operation of the two founder members of the Union and the major economies.
Returning the bonhomie, Monti declared: "The Chancellor and I are working together very well". It was "simply a pleasure to be able to receive the Chancellor again". As to the Council: "It was a step towards a Europe that we want as Italians". Also, he says, "eurobonds are no longer taboo."
The point, of course, is that if they can fake it now, they could just as easily have faked it last week â or
vice versa. No analysis of EU politics is ever complete without taking account of the theatre.
Elsewhere, sweetness and light are in shorter supply â or perhaps the theatrical skills are not as well tuned. There is talk of an alliance between Berlin, Netherlands and Finland, nicknamed the "North axis of austerity". The "tiddlers" oppose letting the European bailout fund buy government bonds on secondary markets.
Here, we can't rule out the possibility that Merkel is playing to her own domestic audiences. A few days ago, we were hearing from
Spiegel and
other sources that Horst Seehofer, CSU leader, Bavarian governor and Merkel's coalition partner, had turned on the chancellor, sharply criticising the outcome of the European Council.
He was threatening to pull down the coalition if there were any more concessions to ailing euro members. Seehofer also criticised Schäuble's call for a referendum on a new constitution that could relinquish national powers to Brussels. "We don't want a different constitution", he says.
Seehofer adds that he wouldn't accept the transfer of major powers to a "European monster state". He threatens to turn the next general election and the Bavarian regional election, both scheduled for 2013, into a vote on Europe. "We will put this question to the people", he says.
Electorally, though, this does not seem to doing Merkel any harm. Support for her governing coalition has risen to 36 percent, from 34 percent the week before the European Council.
However, Manfred Guellner, head of the polling firm Forsa explained this response: "Just like during all times of crisis, people rally around the government", he said. "Even though people don't understand individual actions, they support Merkel anyway".
So, as is usual with this long-drawn out affair, everything is clear as mud. But August is less than a month away. The Eurocrats and the bankers want their holidays and no one is too anxious to rock the boat. Crises there are to come, but nobody wants one just yet.
COMMENT THREAD
