EU Referendum


Eurocrash: catching up is so hard to do


26/06/2012



Shaeuble 220-fek.jpg

This morning's Daily Mail is finally waking up to some of the issues that have been tearing through the German media since the weekend. The paper is thus reporting on the likelihood of Germany having a referendum if more power is ceded to Brussels, although it has yet to pick up on the possible timetable, identified by Handlesblatt, where the poll could he held in 2013 or 2014.

The possibility of a referendum, says the Mail, increases the pressure on Mr Cameron for his own referendum. However, when last we looked at the subject (on Saturday), it appeared that British politicians and policy analysts were looking at an altogether more relaxed timescale, with a poll some time after the next general election.

Unfortunately for the Brits, events are occurring at a much faster pace. The indications are now that Cameron will have his hand forced well before the election – or be confronted with the thing British politicians try to avoid: having the EU as an issue in the general election.

Meanwhile, back in Germany, former Chancellor Gerhard Schröder has intervened, declaring that "Europe needs a bold reform". To save the EU, there must be a European government - even at the expense of the nation state, he says.

Schröder is looking to this week's European Council, further strengthening expectations that the agenda will focus on the longer-term, with treaty changes as the key issue.

Referring back to the Schäuble interview, it is also very clear that the "colleagues" intend any new treaty to apply to all 27 member states. Britain is not going to be able to sit this one out. Generally speaking, though, the British commentariat and politicians are behind the curve on the build-up to this treaty, and are thus unprepared to address the issues raised. Since their grasp of EU politics is often poor, catching up is going to be difficult for them.

That notwithstanding, we must be prepared for the possibility of an IGC being convened in the early autumn, working to a tightly controlled agenda which will preclude any idea of Cameron planting his own "reforms".

A putative timetable gives us a new treaty at the end of the year, followed by a signing ceremony some time in the New Year, Then the fun starts. I can think of half a dozen countries, including Ireland and Denmark - but possibly France and Sweden - which will demand referendums.

One thing is for certain. Cameron is not in control. And with the indications that he and his advisors are so far behind the curve, he is going to be on the back foot, having to respond to a fast-moving European agenda at a time when he would doubtless prefer to concentrate on other matters.

Nor even will Mr Cameron necessarily call it correctly. He is taking advice from dubious sources, such as Peter Sands, chief executive of Standard Chartered. Sands, it appears, is expressing concern that Britain will be forced out of the EU, taking a self-centred and narrow view of what is best for the "City". 

On past form, though, City analysts have been least adept at assessing the implications of EU policy, and are handicapped by short-termism and ignorance of the issues.

"Catch-up" is going to have to be the new game played, but it is unlikely that British policy will be well-founded as long as the issues are so poorly understood and the debate so limited. Much of the British strategy seems to rest on the idea of being able to "hijack" an IGC, inserting our own "reform" agenda.  There seems little understanding that the Lisbon treaty procedure makes this very difficult (if not impossible) to do.

Once again, therefore, we face the spectre of the UK being outmanoeuvred, with the "colleagues" calling the shots.