EU Referendum


Eurocrash: Greek election too close to call


17/06/2012



UPDATE: Ultimately, Greece will have to leave EMU whoever is elected, says Ambrose. No government can carry out an "internal devaluation" for eight years, and nor should it try. But it matters a great deal for Greece how exit is negotiated.

UPDATE: With 60 percent of the vote counted, interior ministry projections put New Democracy on 30.1 percent (130 seats), Syriza on 26.5 percent (70) and the socialist Pasok on 12.6 percent (33). Samaras is to attempt to form a government.

UPDATE: New Democracy's Antonis Samaras is claiming the lead, with the official poll giving him 29.5 percent of the vote. Syriza gets 27.1 percent. Samaras says his party would honour commitments to the EU. "It was a victory for all Europe", he says. 

So far, the rest of the party leaders are agreed on only one point – that a government has to be formed to spare Greek voters the "agony" of a third ballot in July.

UPDATE: The ND spokesperson says the party will try to form grand coalition with Pasok and Syriza, with a Pasok official saying that party will not join government unless Syriza takes part. The response from Syriza: It's a joke to talk about Syriza joining a government with ND and Pasok. This is what is known as a Greek standoff!

UPDATE: Reuters has the latest poll showing New Democracy taking 28.6-30 percent of the vote, with Syriza just behind on 27.5-28.4 percent. Pasok is on 11-12.4 percent. That will allow ND to form a coalition government with Pasok. On current showing, this coalition would have an overall majority of between 5-9 seats (in the 300-seat Parliament).

Greek 203-xod.jpeg

The Greek SKAI TV exit poll has the Radical Left (Syriza) at between 25 and 31 percent; Conservatives (New Democracy) stand between 25 and 30 percent. Socialists (Pasok) have 11- 15, Nationalists 6-9, Leftists 6-9, Communists 4-7 and the Far-right 4-7 percent.

A similar spread is coming via the Financial Times, (and Reuters), making the election too close to call. They cite a survey variously conducted by five or six leading Greek pollsters. The result gives New Democracy 27.5-30.5 percent, while Syriza gets 27.0-30.0 percent. Pasok trails in third place with 10-12 percent. The Democratic Left party is set to capture 5.5-6.5 percent.

It is thus still to early to say whether pro-bailout Conservatives or anti-bailout Radical Left will get the 50 seat bonus for coming first in Parliament.

COMMENT: "PREPARING FOR THE WORST" THREAD