Richard North,
12/05/2012
Only last month, Reuters says, the Environment Agency was telling us that the drought affecting parts of the country could last until next year. Rains over the spring and summer were unlikely to replenish low water levels.
Indeed, that is the truth. In its drought report for March, the Environment Agency declared:
Significant further groundwater recharge is now unlikely. As plants start to grow and it becomes warmer, soils will dry out further. The scenarios the Environment Agency and water companies have modelled show that even with above average rainfall there will still be significant drought impacts. The low groundwater levels will lead to low river flows and drying of wetlands that rely on groundwater, with widespread effects for the environment and all water users. We are therefore anticipating a severe drought in spring and summer 2012.
And after the rainiest April in 100 years, that is no longer the case. But the event is one to savour. This is the same organisation, one of the select few that our masters trust, which is confident it knows what is going to happen to the climate in a hundred years time.
Also for the record, the climate change model tells us to expect wet winters and dry summers. But, in 2006, after two dry winters, standpipes were being threatened. Then, in 2012, after two dry winters, standpipes were again being threatened.
Thus, in eight years, we have had four dry winters. This is a scenario that is not exactly fitting the model. There is, it seems, getting it wrong and getting it wrong. Then there is climate change.
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